Kareem El-Assal - 11 November, 2020
Two major factors will likely see high levels of people continue to move to Canada from the U.S. following the November 2020 American elections.
The first is the certainty that Canada provides to global talent around the world including talent in the United States.
The second is Canada is dramatically increasing its immigration levels targets.
Upon Canada's launch of the Express Entry system in 2015, it issued 600 invitations to apply for permanent residence to candidates residing in the U.S. This now stands at over 10,000 per year with Canadian government data suggesting 85 per cent of successful Express Entry candidates are non-U.S. citizens.
This finding suggests the desire to move to Canada from the U.S. is driven by talent looking for certainty in Canada.
Successful candidates can secure permanent residence in Canada within six months or less under Express Entry. Consider that many U.S. visa holders such as those who hold H-1B visas reside in the country for many years without a clear path to a Green Card.
It is unlikely that the new presidential mandate and session of Congress will offer greater certainty to Green Card hopefuls. Immigration reform has not been a prominent theme in U.S. political circles this year with the COVID-19 pandemic taking center stage. Given how large of a role the coronavirus pandemic is playing in the U.S. and around the world, it seems far more likely the U.S. government will place its focus on containing the virus and recovering from its damage, rather than devoting much energy to immigration reform at this time.
The unlikelihood of immigration reform will come at a time when Canada is seeking to grow immigration. Under its new 2021-2023 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada will seek to welcome over 400,000 immigrants per year, with 60 per cent set to arrive under the economic class.
The higher targets will provide more opportunities for talent in the U.S. As noted above, the numbers of U.S. candidates succeeding under Express Entry over the past 5 years is only growing, and Canada will be lifting its Express Entry admissions targets under the 2021-2023 Immigration Levels Plan. Canada will also be increasing its admissions targets for its other economic class streams, and this is important to note since Canada offers over 100 different economic class permanent residence streams in total.
When you add the two factors together of greater certainty and higher Canadian immigration targets, you realize Canada will remain well-placed to attract high levels of immigration from the U.S. in the years following the 2020 U.S. election.
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