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ElvisRamaj

Hero Member
Apr 26, 2021
824
1,861
33
Tirana, AL
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
0114
Permanent residence backlog grand total


Grand total525,270
Immigration categoryPersons as of December 15
Economic Class234,770
Family Class105,298
Humanitarian and Compassionate/Public Policy27,520
Permit Holders Class24
Protected Persons157,658

So, from a grand total of 525,720 people currently in the backlog for PR at a pace of 45,000 - 49,000 per month Authorizations and Visa issued, we can expect the last person to get the PR around December 2022 ?
 

dxdroid

Champion Member
Jun 21, 2021
1,788
1,528
All we see is a few old (AOR 2020 or older) apps getting PPR. I'm not sure how you can deduce it must be moving and there must be hundreds of people every day.
Well the updates we are getting are only from people that are actually posting about it themselves. Majority of people are not even on this forum.
 
D

Deleted member 1050918

Guest
Well the updates we are getting are only from people that are actually posting about it themselves. Majority of people are not even on this forum.
Yes but the way you need to analyze it is via "how many PPRs / day used to be reported pre-pandemic vs now". You may see 10 PPRs per day now and think 100 PPRs were actually issued on the same day, which may be true, but you need to consider what it was pre-pandemic. Maybe it was 20 PPRs announced online per day and 200 PPRs actually issued.

Looking at @ElvisRamaj 's table, I don't see anything moving. It'll take IRCC about 6-9 months to sort things out.
 
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sun2088

Star Member
Nov 13, 2020
168
170
Permanent residence backlog grand total


Immigration categoryPersons as of December 15
Grand total525,270
Economic Class234,770
Family Class105,298
Humanitarian and Compassionate/Public Policy27,520
Permit Holders Class24
Protected Persons157,658

So, from a grand total of 525,720 people currently in the backlog for PR at a pace of 45,000 - 49,000 per month Authorizations and Visa issued, we can expect the last person to get the PR around December 2022 ?
Sooner. In one application, you could have multiple people (spouse, children etc.)
 

cansha

VIP Member
Aug 1, 2018
6,675
5,853
Permanent residence backlog grand total


Immigration categoryPersons as of December 15
Grand total525,270
Economic Class234,770
Family Class105,298
Humanitarian and Compassionate/Public Policy27,520
Permit Holders Class24
Protected Persons157,658

So, from a grand total of 525,720 people currently in the backlog for PR at a pace of 45,000 - 49,000 per month Authorizations and Visa issued, we can expect the last person to get the PR around December 2022 ?
Such arithmetic sadly doesn't work for IRCC processing times.
 

Ar12345

Star Member
Nov 11, 2020
184
243
Canada’s immigration backlog over 1.8 million applications in December
The backlog has grown by 21,000 applications over two months.

IRCC has more than 1.8 million applications in the queue, according to data from December.
CIC News obtained the data via an information request to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). The backlog includes future citizens, permanent residents, international students, temporary workers, and visitors.
Adding up these categories brings the total to a backlog of 1,813,144 applications in December. In October, IRCC reported a backlog of 1,791,936. The difference means the backlog has grown by more than 21,000 immigration applications in a span of 49 days, a growth of 1%.

For most of these categories, except citizens, the new data reflect IRCC’s inventory as of December 15, 2021:
Permanent residence backlog grand total

Grand total525,270
Immigration categoryPersons as of December 15
Economic Class234,770
Family Class105,298
Humanitarian and Compassionate/Public Policy27,520
Permit Holders Class24
Protected Persons157,658

Temporary residence backlog grand total

Grand Total819,874
TR CategoryPersons as of December 15
Study Permit122,476
Study Permit extension24,461
Temporary Resident Permit6,726
Temporary Resident Visa403,752
Visitor Record extension60,499
Work Permit78,080
Work Permit extension123,880
As of October 31, 2021, there are around 468,000 citizenship applications in the inventory, which is the same figure IRCC provided to CIC News for October 27 data. The immigration department did not provide more recent citizenship figures.

Express Entry and Family Class backlogs reduced, refugee backlogs increase
As of December, the Express Entry backlog was at more than 119,000, compared to October when it was nearly 138,000.

The difference was largely seen in Canadian Experience Class (CEC) applications, which was down to nearly 25,000 applications in December compared to more than 48,000 in October. The Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) backlog also went down, 805 in the December queue compared to 931 in October.

The Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) backlog increased to about 55,000 in December, whereas it was at nearly 51,000 in October. There was also an increase in the enhanced Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) backlog, 39,000 in December compared to 38,000 in October.

Overall family class applications were down to about 105,000 this past December, compared to more than 111,000 in October. This includes programs like spousal sponsorship, which was down slightly but remains around the 55,000 application mark, and the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP), which was down to about 38,000 compared to more than 43,000.

In December, the backlog of protected persons (refugees and in-Canada asylum claimants) was almost 158,000. In October, it was about 153,000 applications.

The following tables provide detail on the backlogs by immigration program:
Economic Class backlog

Total Economic Class234,770
Immigration categoryPersons as of December 15
Agri-Food Pilot Program747
Atlantic Immigration Pilot Programs2,998
Canadian Experience Class (EE)24,675
Canadian Experience Class (No EE)55
Caring For Children Program12,539
Federal Self Employed4,999
Federal Skilled Workers (C-50)223
Federal Skilled Workers (EE)54,529
Federal Skilled Workers (Pre C-50)24
High Medical Needs Program29
Live-in Caregiver Program1,780
Provincial/Territorial Nominees (EE)39,325
Provincial/Territorial Nominees (No EE)27,421
Quebec Entrepreneur462
Quebec Investor14,610
Quebec Self Employed85
Quebec Skilled Workers27,048
Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot992
Skilled Trades (EE)805
Skilled Trades (No EE)9
Start-up Business1,264
TR to PR20,151

Family Class backlog

Total Family Class105,298
PR CategoryPersons as of December 15
Children & Other Family Class8,848
FCH-Family relations - H&C3,465
Parents and Grandparents38,122
Spouses & Partners54,863

Humanitarian and Compassionate/Public Policy backlog

Total Humanitarian & Compassionate / Public Policy27,520
PR CategoryPersons as of December 15
HC & PH class-ADM Dependant Person Overseas70
Humanitarian & Compassionate Straight17,532
Humanitarian & Compassionate with Risk or Discrimination8,701
Public Policy Without RAP1,217

Permit Holders Class backlog

Total Permit Holders Class24
PR CategoryPersons as of December 15
Permit Holders Class24

Protected Persons backlog

Total Protected Persons157,658
PR CategoryPersons as of December 15
Blended Visa Office-Referred42
Dependants Abroad of Protected Persons23,708
Federal Government-assisted Refugees40,603
Privately Sponsored Refugees72,436
Protected Persons Landed In Canada19,718
Quebec Government-assisted Refugees1,151
TR cases don't matter since they're processed more easily and they are always going to be a bigger rolling number

It Says FSW backlog increased by 4k from October to December when they didn't have any new draws. But these are persons and not cases and so it makes sense. Could be people adding spouses, children etc to their application. I wish they reported cases since that'll give a better picture of the numbers and processing rate. 54k persons I'm guessing is around 30-40k cases at most on FSW. And maybe 300-400k total PR cases. Around 80-100k of those are protected persons/HC and they are handled mostly by the IRB. So in essence we may be looking at a net PR backlog of at most 300k cases. That doesn't seem too scary compared to 1.8 mil lol. Still they have enough work to make their 2022 Target just with these backlogs. If they process 30k PR cases per month they should make it in 10 months. Question is will they
 
Last edited:

Ejosaz

Member
Jul 24, 2019
16
17
They plan on resuming draws when they can finalize in 6 months post AOR. That gives a leeway of like seven months from ITA. So only draws until like may would go to this year. So they may estimate draw numbers from that. So on that note, if they resume draws mid February like I guess they would, that means they will be like 3,5 months from mid feb to end of may, allowing for 7-8 draws. So if they have around 31k PRs for express entry, that allows for around 3900 people per draw(don’t know how much that would be for cases) I’m guessing they could hold 3k non PNP draws until end of may.

I guess they can keep inviting from EE because those invited to apply, say after June/July, won't likely contribute to meet 2022 admission targets for Federal High Skilled (CEC,FSW,FST). It all comes down to the approach they'd take with things like new changes to accommodate the mandate from Trudeau "Expand pathways to Permanent Residence for international students and temporary foreign workers through the Express Entry system. "

Let's hope for the best to those FSWs out there waiting...
 
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Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
London VO is on fire I guess. When will Mexico wake up? Yesterday someone got a reply from them for a webform, where they stopped blaming covid for stalling VOs and now specifically said it’s stalling VOs in Latin America. Seriously, Latin American is the region with highest vaxed rate in the world. Everything is open. They are pissing me off. When I requested VO transfer, they made up excuses, but they won’t do their jobs.
 

RSub

Champion Member
Aug 23, 2021
2,101
2,634
USA
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
CPC Ottawa
AOR Received.
12-11-2020
TR cases don't matter since they're processed more easily and they are always going to be a bigger rolling number

It Says FSW backlog increased by 4k from October to December when they didn't have any new draws. But these are persons and not cases and so it makes sense. Could be people adding spouses, children etc to their application. I wish they reported cases since that'll give a better picture of the numbers and processing rate. 54k persons I'm guessing is around 30-40k cases at most on FSW. And maybe 300-400k total PR cases. Around 80-100k of those are protected persons/HC and they are handled mostly by the IRB. So in essence we may be looking at a net PR backlog of at most 300k cases. That doesn't seem too scary compared to 1.8 mil lol. Still they have enough work to make their 2022 Target just with these backlogs. If they process 30k PR cases per month they should make it in 10 months. Question is will they
One more thing to be noted is that the cases that added spouses and kids will be further delayed naturally. This is because newly added members' info needed to be reviewed just like any other primary applicant adding processing delays. So, they will go down on the priority list. If 4,000 dependents were added then 4,000 cases associated with those will see delayed processing. This is actually good for people who have not added anyone. If someone added their spouse and received COPR in no time, then your wife or husband must be really hot and the IRCC agent wants to f**k them. So keep an eye.

Looking at the PPR farts so far, I believe below is what is happening:

1st priority: Oldest applicants from 2019 and pre covid. (If you are from 2019 and have not received it, then assume yours is complex)
2nd priority: Expired COPR's. (If you have not received your PPR even though you have expired COPR, then assume there are people above you with early AOR's who have expired COPR's. Or IRCC may need a re-medical or new PPC from you because of your Country of Residence or other "unknown" factors. In either case, you will go down in the priority list.)
3rd priority: Applicants who have passed security and criminality irrespective of AOR's. (I have seen people from DEC 2020/Jan 2021 getting COPR's but they also have security and criminality cleared as seen from their GCMS notes. I personally contacted a few and cross-checked this. In my case, with a Nov 2020 AOR, my security and criminality have not started. )
4th priority: Cases with Security and criminality pending. (I believe most fall in this category. Since Criminality and security are mostly tied with external agencies, we may see real IRCC rain in a few weeks.
5th priority: People who have added spouses and kids.


This is the logic I see with IRCC. But, I could also be dreaming that logic and IRCC can be put in one sentence.
 
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