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Ray of Hope 68th Draw

andieangel

andieangel

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Feb 13, 2017
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Croatia
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pessacanada said:
Hello everyone, here we go again, hope to see a draw tomorrow and like everybody I want a big surprise by CIC :);)
I got really fat yesterday because of birthday wishes :D:D:D Many thanks again my friends.
Ohhh Yukon party, loving this so much, of course we will do it next year. Regarding invitation to that, apart ITA, you may ask a permission from our intelligent, lovely, active member and very smart Secretary General Andie :);)
Hope for the best which could be CRS 430 (+-2) with 3400 ITAs. Or optimistic wish would be CRS 425 (+-3) coz I'm truly optimist person :p;):D
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Hello @pessacanada, thanks for kind words! As your Secretary General (not by my choice ;)) everyone is invited to Yukon party 2018!

P.S. Your credentials may be under advisement before granting access to THE party! :D Kidding!
 
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KingKurly

KingKurly

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Jan 25, 2017
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raj2017 said:
good work to lino and to you as well, cutting average intake by half fags is a big deal, i am taking avg 3-4 and it is very difficult to cut down even by one. then i console myself by saying that 3-4 a day is not a bad thing to worry about...;)
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Thanks mate! My avg daily is 6 these days sometimes i can do with 3. My biggest problem is my routine at work. I am on a auto-pilot when its time for a fag lol. Luckily from today, my employer has placed a check-in n check-out even for a small break if i have to go out. As we do not have a dedicated place to smoke here, i think the universe is telling me to stop completely lol. Anyway, it is better to quit completely and that's what i am trying to do. So maybe you can do it too. All the best. I think i am turning this thread from hope thread to quit smoke thread and in the past i was turning it to booze thread lol. Ok last post in relation to fag my dear friends, i promise :D
 
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KingKurly

KingKurly

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Jan 25, 2017
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nbt11 said:
And on a side note, if you received an ITA and still haven't submitted your application (eAPR) but the IELTS expires, I guess he should be taking it again.
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You are absolutely correct. IELTS score gets locked only after the e-APR but age points get locked after ITA already.
 
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lino82

lino82

Hero Member
Apr 12, 2017
817
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NOC Code......
0121
KingKurly said:
Thanks mate! My avg daily is 6 these days sometimes i can do with 3. My biggest problem is my routine at work. I am on a auto-pilot when its time for a fag lol. Luckily from today, my employer has placed a check-in n check-out even for a small break if i have to go out. As we do not have a dedicated place to smoke here, i think the universe is telling me to stop completely lol. Anyway, it is better to quit completely and that's what i am trying to do. So maybe you can do it too. All the best. I think i am turning this thread from hope thread to quit smoke thread and in the past i was turning it to booze thread lol. Ok last post in relation to fag my dear friends, i promise :D
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I'll tell you how I did it.....
I never did quit....I reserved my right to smoke any moment I choose....and that took the pressure of quitting away from me...I just postponed the next smoke....
I could smoke it at next break....and then I pushed it to the next day....and believe me if you push off for five six days,the nicotine driven urge will subside...
---
even today I reserve my right to smoke and i'vent quit ....I'll start again once I retire... :p...
there's nothing to beat a lit cigarette on ur lip to give u company between the 'peg-breaks' at a poolside bar with friends in the evening:p....
smoking is awesome but it kills early:(....so I've put off that enjoyment untill I'm done with few others on my list first :D...
 
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S

sacmanitin

Full Member
Aug 10, 2016
46
68
Globetrotter2017 said:
Made the semantic correction mentioned. Here it is,

After some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per day (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per day (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 30 profiles per day (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 70 profiles per day (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 210
451-600 770
441-450 210
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3260 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 420
451-600 1540
441-450 420
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4944 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
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True , we need to see that pressure on all score due to high cut-offs in earlier score is mounting , after may 31st , score 413 is keep mounting because ,the applicant are just adding to the pool so all applicant between 413 to 439 are just got added for almost 50 days !! Looking at the downward trend in number of ITA and heavy number of applicant in this bracket the movement between these two CRS point downwards will be slower unless there is any newer surprise or policy change .. hoping a draw tomorrow . fingers crossed !
 
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shawtyzai

shawtyzai

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Jun 22, 2017
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I have a question about PCC. I had a 5w5wk holiday sometime last year. would I require a PCC fRom the country I travelled to. I have spent about 70 cummulative days at different times
 
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