Somebody knows CEC GAP REACHED?

[Conor9900]

It seems likely the numbers CIC were posting on their website were meaningless, they were updated sporadically and were at one point changed completely (reduced), then they disappeared. I don't think we can read too much in to them. The only thing we know at this point is that they stopped charging credit cards two weeks ago, which is not a good sign

 

[precel]

This is just my speculation but unfortunately looks like the numbers from CIC make sense.

If we assume that the numbers posted by CIC are the numbers of issued AORs (what also makes sence as AOR means that an application is in the system and only then is considered accepted)
Then by matching numbers/dates posted by the_lion with people that got their AOR at that day (+-1 day as it wasn't possible in every case) and then reading their CC charge date we can get the following graph of when a CC charge was made that corresponds with a certain AOR issued.

h ttp://i166.photobucket.com/albums/u104/precel2/cec_zps68544b1e.png
(can't post links)

We can see that:
- extrapolation of a CC charge made on Jan 16th with reached limit of 8000 matches to the data we already have.
- CIC was working at certain constant pace till beginning of Oct. Since then they are working of slightly faster constant pace.

So, probably (again, just my speculation):
- CIC has made a CC charge on Jan 16th that will most likely cause an issuance of the #8000 AOR so they stopped to charge/process more applications as AFAIK 99% charged people get AOR.
- Maybe if any application gets rejected between CC charge and AOR then they will process few more.
- They started to return latter applications (December) as they for sure won't be processed
- We won't see any official statement from CIC about the cap until the 8000 AOR is actually issued, so probably March/April

If you find any error in this reasoning please let me know.

 

[jaffa83]

If the cap has been reached an alert or status message will be updated on the website like the one it did for FSW case. So, relax pals..CIC is just busy with the first draw for Jan 2015 as per the set guidelines and this is the last week. So, once it is done I hope everything will be on track.

 

[kiransar]

If the cap has been reached an alert or status message will be updated on the website like the one it did for FSW case. So, relax pals..CIC is just busy with the first draw for Jan 2015 as per the set guidelines and this is the last week. So, once it is done I hope everything will be on track.

I agree with jaffa83. Further as per CEC - 2013 : 7631 applicants were processed, for year 2014 CIC target was 12000 - 15000. They initially processed until MI12 notice creating 8000 applicantions will be accepted from May - 1 to Dec - 31. The plan of CIC is to process 1000 a month to ensure 8000 applicants. As per Nov 26 web page it indicated 4567 which is inline to above assumption.

 

[zazen]

Somebody from other thread CEC cap has been reached? just reported that they got their Application returned after the DD was cashed. It was returned with the templated mail that we saw earlier from the chinese forum.

 

[Amisnic]

Maybe the Gap has been Breached? 8)

 

[Amisnic]

Maangeh Murga keh Surwa piye

 

[kiransar]

Maybe the Gap has been Breached? 8)

Then it would be History made in CIC process till date, from 2008 to 2013 the maximum was 7651.

 

[sjulien]

Hope all people will get their AOR sooner who submitted application in/before December 2014 month.

However, if you think on negative side of cap perspective, I would says that NOC B might be get an issue if cap has been reached because in NOC B category only 200 application consider.

It seems that news are rumors and no need to worry about it.

 

[Amisnic]

Let's all do a little pooja in our homes tomorrow for those who applied in Oct, Nov and Dec, lets pray that the rumour is only a rumour. I still cannot see why CIC will find it difficult to just count all applications and say that 15000 has been received. If they do that and if they go by dates then we will know that those towards the end will not get in.

 

[kiransar]

Let's all do a little pooja in our homes tomorrow for those who applied in Oct, Nov and Dec, lets pray that the rumour is only a rumour. I still cannot see why CIC will find it difficult to just count all applications and say that 15000 has been received. If they do that and if they go by dates then we will know that those towards the end will not get in.

Just for debate ;D A public service has process and ETA's. They follow the process as stated by Ministry. So the step - 1: Encash application after first review; Step-2: AOR issued; Step-3: Medical Recieved et.

So when the applications come they are divided into groups. Hence this confusion. Where ever there is confusion the middelmen thrive the life. 8)

 

[Amisnic]

http://veemanlaw.com/wp/canadian-experience-class-quota-reached/

 

[hegarty147]

Somebody from other thread CEC cap has been reached? just reported that they got their Application returned after the DD was cashed. It was returned with the templated mail that we saw earlier from the chinese forum.

I cant believe this. So that means all october applications that have been cashed are at risk ?

 

[kiransar]

http://veemanlaw.com/wp/canadian-experience-class-quota-reached/

It's a speculation and this kind of news always helpful for middlemen. The details have to be on basis of Fact. Either by previous historical stats or current reject details emerging or CEC new update.

I agree their could be delay update on Webpage but we would see trend of more 20 applicants receiving with same reason. Either we react with this news and prepare for EE or Wait for few more details.

If you are man of Faith then : What has to happen will will happen irrespectively. So relax and wait for right timing.

 

[Amisnic]

A sign of cap been reached is that there has been no further AOR in the past few days.