Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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One question pls.. in my passport and my DOB certificate my mothers surname is as per my fathers surname but in all her documents its her maiden name(as she is government employee). So will this be a problem?
By God’s grace you will get ITA when they do draw next month.
1. Valid, and i agree. I'm sure it will reduce entrants from immigrants based in the U.S trying to get PR. But by how much is a key question, it remains difficult to transition from an immigrant visa to PR status in the U.S. While i'm sure many will prefer to remain, i still there will be a lot of people who will see the the straightforwardness of EE in Canada and still apply for PR. There are many people who apply for EE despite being based and wanting to remain in the US, and they use PR in Canada as a plan B. I expect that trend to continue.
2. Yes, they are high, but expect entrants to the pool to increase as well. The numbers have spiraled for EE in the last couple of years, and i expect that to only increase, especially among the high scores. I expect that to offset the increased size of draws. IRCC also do not usually have big draws, it's a way they ensure that the pool replenishes with higher scoring candidates, and so they can keep the cut-off score high. Also, just as there are the occasional b2b draws, there are also times where they wait in excess of 2 weeks to conduct draws. They also can do program specific draws as well, so they have a wide array of methods to keep cut-off scores high. And to be honest, it's in their interest to do so because the higher scoring the candidate, the more valuable they will be as immigrants according to their criteria.
I would put it this way, if you were a candidate in January 2018, you had a chance if your score was just under 440. Do you think that is the case now? In 2019, if you score was in the low 450's, you had a good chance to qualify during the year. Do you have that chance now based this year's cut-off scores for an all program draw?
Scores are only shifting upwards not downwards, we no longer see big shifts downwards in cut-offs scores like we did before, unless it's something specifically designed like a b2b draw. Back in 2018, draws were routinely dropping significantly. That hasn't been the case in a while. So, i don't rule it out, but the trend is clear.
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Thanks a lot for your wishes, it really helps in keeping me motivated. Fingers crossed
Quick Question
In the ITA letter, Point 6 states obtain the documents which you must submit with your application (see “checklist” for details)
Where is this Checklist ?
In the ITA letter, Point 6 states obtain the documents which you must submit with your application (see “checklist” for details)
Where is this Checklist ?
you will get it once you fill in the information under "Continue Application".
After filling it completely ? It would take some time as the details like 10 yr address would take some time
And does these 10 yr address need to be very accurate ? I don’t remember my house #s for 2011,12 as I was just a paying guest sort of tenant
What a time to be alive. Congratulations on your ITA, saw it on nairaland yesterday.
I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:
Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).
Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).
Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.
Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.
Fun fact about this draw, btw: if I hadn't learned french, I would have received my ITA this Wednesday, since I was seating at 469 before getting the 45 extra points.
Was I willing to take that risk? Hell no.
Was I willing to take that risk? Hell no.
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