No, i disagree with this sentiment.
Things are reasonable within a certain range, it's no point saying to someone that they have a good chance with a score of 430, when we know what the trend has been.
These big draws are mainly to offset the smaller ones earlier during the year, i would not expect them to be the norm and it's important to realise that. Even with these draw sizes and b2b draw, only now has the an all program draw dipped below 470.
Yes, you should be hopeful but don't mistake realism with pessimism.
Otherwise you are going to set people up for disappointment and complacency.