Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Islander216]

Everything points to cut-off scores increasing.

The only reason it dropped this much is because of the large draw sizes and the b2b draw, the most likely explanation is of course that IRCC wants to fulfill as much of its annual quota before the year is over, and there have been setbacks due to covid.

But we know what the trend is, which is that cut-off scores have only increased year on year. So yes, i'm all for being optimistic but being realistic is good too, we shouldn't conflate people trying to discourage others here under the guise of 'realism', to mean that going in the complete opposite direction is desirable.

It's not, people were unlucky because of covid, IRCC has done a lot to offset that by being generous with draws now. It doesn't mean that following draws will continue that trajectory, on the contrary what is much more likely is IRCC will go back to normal procedures.

Someone below 460 has to understand that the chances of the cut-off score increasing is much more likely than decreasing significantly. We see that clearly when it comes to how scores have increased and only dipped marginally in 2019 and 2020.

Be positive but be grounded in the reality of the situation as well.

 

[monti12]

Unlikely to come down below 460, you have to be realistic as well.

Why do you think like that?

If they continue to draw every month two times, I think cut-off will go below 460 by end of February.

Its just my prediction but i believe its possible.

 

[Islander216]

b2b draws are rare, expecting it to now happen every month is unreasonable.

Again, i'm just being the voice of reason, i know people are hyped by the recent draw, but people should realise this is the only all program draw in 2020 which has dipped below 470.

There has not been an all program draw below 460 since August 2019, that's over a year. And all trends point to cut-off scores increasing.

 

[abqalhamairi]

Guys, anyone has post ITA threads that can help us with the application process?

 

[jrossi]

Why do you think like that?

If they continue to draw every month two times, I think cut-off will go below 460 by end of February.

Its just my prediction but i believe its possible.

Just do the math. The weekly influx of candidates in the pool for that last draw hasn't changed. The score only dropped because it was a B2B, so the pool only had 50% of the usual time to be refilled.

 

[Islander216]

Guys, anyone has post ITA threads that can help us with the application process?

Check threads by AOR month.

 

[ChessGirl]

Guys, I have been quiet on the group and just putting my head down and studying for TEF. Guess I will still give my exam and hooray to have finally gotten the ITA

I was studying for TEF too. Can’t be bothered anymore though lol. But all the best (it’s a worthy certificate to have)

 

[jesse1120]

I was studying for TEF too. Can’t be bothered anymore though lol. But all the best (it’s a worthy certificate to have)

Thank you I am looking forward to the test with no pressure of CRS points

 

[Emman O.]

Just do the math. The weekly influx of candidates in the pool for that last draw hasn't changed. The score only dropped because it was a B2B, so the pool only had 50% of the usual time to be refilled.

Lol the same way you said B2B would never happen, and I actually believed you and panicked.

 

[Emman O.]

All analysts should rest. The events of the past has shown that noone here, at least on this forum works with IRCC. And peradventure you work with them, you don't really have access to info that matters.

 

[Igethope]

Lol the same way you said B2B would never happen, and I actually believed you and panicked.

No one can actually predict anything. We can just try.

 

[Islander216]

All analysts should rest. The events of the past has shown that noone here, at least on this forum works with IRCC. And peradventure you work with them, you don't really have access to info that matters.

Be that as it may, no one should be giving false hope to people who are far away from the cut-off score.

There is a reasonable middle ground between the two extremes.

 

[sun2088]

Be that as it may, no one should be giving false hope to people who are far away from the cut-off score.

There is a reasonable middle ground between the two extremes.

What would you say is a reasonable cut-off score range at this point which may likely result in an ITA?

 

[Islander216]

470 and above in the coming months, but don't be surprised to see that increase next year.

Cut-off scores have only increased each year.

People need to make themselves as competitive as possible.

If people think that because in 2018 people in the 440's were getting ITAs that they have a chance with that kind of score, only disappointment awaits you.

You have to look at the latest cut-off score and aim to be above it ideally.

That's not to say you have no chance if you're below 470 but it gives you perspective and understanding that it's not really in your hands immediately.

 

[sun2088]

470 and above in the coming months, but don't be surprised to see that increase next year.

Cut-off scores have only increased each year.

People need to make themselves as competitive as possible.

If people think that because in 2018 people in the 440's were getting ITAs that they have a chance with that kind of score, only disappointment awaits you.

You have to look at the latest cut-off score and aim to be above it ideally.

Very true and good points but you have to consider the trends and following points:

1. Biden got elected president and his first move will be to undo Trump's immigration reforms. His VP, Harris, as you may know; her mother is an Indian immigrant and she has expressed, numerous times, the importance of immigrants, particularly from countries like India, to the US. In short, expect the US to open up again.

2. The Canadian immigration targets are very high for 2021-2023. What we're seeing now isn't an outlier, rather its part of a regular trend. The people selected now in November, December will be able to land in 2021/2022. Maybe it won't be 5K ITA's being issued at every draw but at minimum, it will be around 4.2K-4.5K if you do the math. In addition, the number of people entering the pool with a CRS score of 470 and above has been about 2.5K - 3.5K.

IRCC didn't have to hold a b2b draw this week, they didn't have to increase the number of ITA's issued from 4.5K to 5K, they didn't even have to make any EE draws this year even as they already reached their quota, but they did.

When you consider all of this, I find it hard not to be optimistic, especially if you're in the 460's, upper 450's.