Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[raj2017]

The idea of these threads is to provide hope for those who are awaiting their ITA. Hope, though, does not mean blind optimism. Comments such as "dreams are shattered" are not productive and should not be welcomed on what is supposed to be an optimistic thread. There are many good reasons to believe that CRS scores will continue to drop. I posted the following earlier in this thread - this is a bit of research that I've conducted which entirely contradicts what you've written about "CIC quota [being] near completion":



It also doesn't make sense for IRCC to do almost all of their draws in the first half of the year. That would cause a massive backlog meaning many applications taking 12 months to complete. As it is, they spread ITAs out throughout the year so that the 6 month processing timeline is realistic and achievable.

Educated and reasoned discussion is welcome here. Baseless pessimism is not.

slap on the face to sa83,, i agree with your estimation and even i have the same opinion, it doesnot make any sense to set a target and then back off half way, if CIC has to achieve their target for 2017 then they will need to adopt the same strategy they had in the first half, however, saying this i dont understand no draw today, but still expecting larger draw in coming weeks to compensate for june and july.

 

[gurpreet.ts]

Ok, So I am at 438 since June 7th
I thought of giving IELTS once more (4th time) My current IELTS score is L9 S8 R8 W7
I thought if i give IELTS again and increase my W to 7.5 I may get 441

I have no siblings in Canada. I don't speak french.

I am working my ass off to make this happen. What do you think guys, should I give IELTS another chance? I can't believe I am saying this.... but had I just given IELTS and increased my writing to 7.5, I would have got an ITA on July 12.

If the 3 week gap continues, it is difficult for the CRS cut off to fall down. I really anticipated a draw.
So whats your recommendation guys? Give IELTS or it's enough? Mind you it will be the fourth time.

I am (for those of you who know me) very optimistic. However, i am in the pool for 2 years now cos of some mishaps by my consultant. I am losing hope and think I am on borrowed time.

438 is enough mate to fetch you an ITA in the next draw. Scheduling IELTS one more time and then waiting for the result would be minimum 1 month from now, during that time there could be 2 draws easily. So I don't see any reason why you need to reappear for IELTS.

Another concern in while reappearing there is always a risk that you one out of the 4 sections go wrong and you end up on a lower score (GOD forbid me for saying this, but just thinking realistically). Just be a little patient and you will be through soon. Cheers!

 

[montylee]

CIC should adopt a much more transparent approach regarding draws (like they are doing for CRS and score distribution), there's too much guess work and speculation regarding draws these days. It's not healthy for people in the EE pool and can lead to increase in stress levels

 

[cp30985]

the increasing gap btw the draws are decreasing the fall in CRS points.... as many ppl enter every day....

This might be a potential reasons for the delay in the CRS draws. as they don't want to go SUB 400 lvls at current point in time.

 

[Er.manoj]

I think that it's unlikely that those who got CRS in the 420 region or below would be deemed undesirable by IRCC. The bare minimum is set outside of the CRS system by ensuring that, for example, FSW applicants must score 67/100 on the FSW points matrix. As long as the minimum requirements are met, I don't see why IRCC would have any interest in stopping people who are eligible from becoming PRs.

In terms of raw human capital CRS scores - compare the situation we have now to the situation we were in prior to November when IRCC were quite happy giving ITAs to anyone who had a job offer - irrespective of their CRS score. There were a lot of people who had CRS of maybe only 300 but their job offer got them bumped up to 900. IRCC didn't have a problem with this per se, although one side effect of that was that they saw a much larger than expected proportion of ITAs going to people with experience as fast food supervisors and cooks. That has been fixed by ensuring that those who are able to get a job offer will get a boost, but not such a boost that it would automatically give you an ITA. They didn't artificially restrict CRS back then and there's no reason they would start now.

Furthermore, 420+ isn't actually all that easy of a target for a lot of people. Consider those who have graduated from university less than three years ago as a good example. You would expect that young people with good education and perfect English would be just the kind of people that Canada wants - but no: someone applying for FSW with top IELTS, one year of experience, under 30 and a bachelors gets only 416 points. Likewise, someone very experienced in their field at age 29, with ten years of work experience, who has perfect English and a two year program at college as education gets only 419 CRS points. Both of these hypothetical people are highly desirable but have relatively low CRS. They will also not be able to increase their CRS without bettering their education or gaining more experience (short of getting PNP or a job offer).

Canada needs a good mix of people with varying levels of ability. I think that the CRS system combined with PNP and extra points for job offers is a fair system. With that being the case, I don't see any rationale that IRCC would have for artificially limiting CRS scores. Quite the opposite, as I've demonstrated above - it's in the interest of Canada to have people with lower human capital scores come in as well: many will be very valuable to the Canadian economy in the future!

Simply WOW......
to that kind of explanation

 

[Manr]

438 is enough mate to fetch you an ITA in the next draw. Scheduling IELTS one more time and then waiting for the result would be minimum 1 month from now, during that time there could be 2 draws easily. So I don't see any reason why you need to reappear for IELTS.

Another concern in while reappearing there is always a risk that you one out of the 4 sections go wrong and you end up on a lower score (GOD forbid me for saying this, but just thinking realistically). Just be a little patient and you will be through soon. Cheers!

Hello buddies - i am also a silent follower of this community since a year and half. Started my Canada dream at 383 and after 2 ielts and 438 CRS - yesterday was supposed to be my day - i am sooo low with stress. Guess refreshing every moment is taking its toll and all i can do is curse my luck.

 

[abhishekgautam23]

There have been draws happening on Thursday and Fridays in the past. As per the trend, I see, after 2-3 consecutive draws on Wednesday there have been instances where an odd draw happening on either Thursday or Friday. May be today or tomorrow could be our lucky day. All the more reasons to stay positive.

Draw 66 June 28th Wednesday
Draw 65 May 31st Wednesday
Draw 64 May 26th Friday
Draw 63 May 26th Friday
Draw 62 May 17th Wednesday
Draw 61 May 4th Thursday
Draw 60 April 19th Wednesday
Draw 59 April 12th Wednesday
Draw 58 April 5th Wednesday
Draw 57 March 24th Friday
Draw 56 March 1st Wednesday
Draw 55 Feb 22nd Wednesday

 

[Wacky1.nash]

My guess, vacation days and clearing applications... Comforting myself rather than saying that they are artificially keeping scores above 410 for as long as long as they can...

I like this theory!

 

[iamxty]

There have been draws happening on Thursday and Fridays in the past. As per the trend, I see, after 2-3 consecutive draws on Wednesday there have been instances where an odd draw happening on either Thursday or Friday. May be today or tomorrow could be our lucky day. All the more reasons to stay positive.

Draw 66 June 28th Wednesday
Draw 65 May 31st Wednesday
Draw 64 May 26th Friday
Draw 63 May 26th Friday
Draw 62 May 17th Wednesday
Draw 61 May 4th Thursday
Draw 60 April 19th Wednesday
Draw 59 April 12th Wednesday
Draw 58 April 5th Wednesday
Draw 57 March 24th Friday
Draw 56 March 1st Wednesday
Draw 55 Feb 22nd Wednesday

EE draw trivia: There was never a Wednesday draw on 2015, with 3 Saturdays, 1 Friday and the rest were on Fridays.

 

[marcusvfm2]

The answer is yes, you can change after ITA.

I'm assuming you have not received your ITA yet, so why don't you remove those work experience now and make the necessary changes to your NOC? If you remove it after ITA, your CRS and FSW eligibility will be recalculated.

When making changes, especially to the work history, make sure your FSW eligibility will not fall below 67 points and your CRS is still above the cut-off at the time you received your ITA. Also, you need to write explanation for any changes made post-ITA.

Thanks iamxty! I actually got an ITA and just realized after it that i could claim points for 3 years of my work experience and not need to give out other letters. Thanks for the advice.

 

[KiranK]

Hi KiranK, could you educate me what "IP1- Missed" in your signature mean, please?

Hi, Actually after our medical passes post AOR, one mostly receives a change in Background Check, which is referred to as IP1 stage of applications. It mostly happens after medical pass immediately or just one or two days before or after. Now before any updates in an application, it background check is "not applicable" by default. Hence hen it first changes to in progress that stage is called IP1. This stage lasts from few hours to few days and then again changes to the default "not applicable". So most candidates miss this update as it might be over in few hours and if you don't check CIC account in that time, you will miss it. There is no e-mail update also for this, hence you will never know the day it happened and when NA again. This what it means.
IP1 is important post AOR is it is indicative of a very important check i.e the R10 check for completeness of documents. hence helps you keep a track of your progress.

 

[am102]

There have been draws happening on Thursday and Fridays in the past. As per the trend, I see, after 2-3 consecutive draws on Wednesday there have been instances where an odd draw happening on either Thursday or Friday. May be today or tomorrow could be our lucky day. All the more reasons to stay positive.

Draw 66 June 28th Wednesday
Draw 65 May 31st Wednesday
Draw 64 May 26th Friday
Draw 63 May 26th Friday
Draw 62 May 17th Wednesday
Draw 61 May 4th Thursday
Draw 60 April 19th Wednesday
Draw 59 April 12th Wednesday
Draw 58 April 5th Wednesday
Draw 57 March 24th Friday
Draw 56 March 1st Wednesday
Draw 55 Feb 22nd Wednesday

Guys stop with the panicking and the conspiracy theories as a newbie here but also as someone who managed website content for big corporates.. probably their plan is to release scores every 2,3,4 weeks on a Wednesday as approved and fit the criteria, but in case of any technical or administrative issue, any delay would cause them to go for the day after, which explains the odd days where results appeared on a Thu or Fri. If there is no draw then it's not a glitch or approval issue, it's their decision to hold off the draw for another week or two to achieve a certain CRS cut off/ certain number of applicants. either way don't stress it, you are getting your ITA sooner than you all think

 

[am102]

Guys stop with the panicking and the conspiracy theories as a newbie here but also as someone who managed website content for big corporates.. probably their plan is to release scores every 2,3,4 weeks on a Wednesday as approved and fit the criteria, but in case of any technical or administrial issue Amy delay would cause them to go for the day after, which explains the odd days where results appeared on a Thu or Fri. If there is no draw then it's not a glitch or approval issue, it's their decision to hold off the draw for another week or two to achieve a certain CRS cut off. either way don't stress it, you are getting your ITA sooner than you all think

You have no idea how many time very important announcements were not made available online on promised fate due to very stupid reasons

 

[gurpreet.ts]

Please be little more patient my friends, a draw is bound to happen either today or tomorrow. Trust me on this!

 

[andy12345]

I am extremely hopeful that there will be a draw this week.

Besides, what are the odds that OINP decides to stop one day before the actual hopeful draw. People who were counting on this Wednesday for a draw to occur, who also received NOIs from Ontario, and if the draw didn't happen then they would have gone for OINP starting today(Especially People Like me).

Also, IRCC has been little too quick to give out the ITAs in the second quarter of 2017, now its just a slow and steady game for them. According to figures, they have only approximately 3400 invitations left per month for their target for 2017 that too in the worst case scenarios.*

Note: * - All of the above is just a speculation.