Ray of Hope - 143rd Draw - CEC

[akhil994]

the only worry in mind is the unemployment rate (CA already reached the UE marker rate for 2008 recession i.e. 8% or more) and if you look at my chart, in ROH 142, it took almost a decade to bring down the rate to 5-6%.

GC might be forced and out of options in coming weeks to delay or potentially hold skilled worker immigration streams.

We must also factor that this employment is due to temporary closure of many large scale employers. Tim Hortons for example. So I believe once the restrictions are lifted, the rebound will not take that long for at least such employers

 

[Jatt2canada]

Safe to say FSW draws are suspended until August?

 

[cybertruck]

We must also factor that this employment is due to temporary closure of many large scale employers. Tim Hortons for example. So I believe once the restrictions are lifted, the rebound will not take that long for at least such employers

the issue is not the temporary layoffs, it’s the turbulence caused in economy across whole world including Canada. This has to be stabilized in an effective manner and of course, GC has big role to play in pulling this back to form.
Reality is that the turbulence itself and coming shockwaves cannot be flipped overnight or even in a few quarters.
Sorry to say but we are in a similar 2008 form global recession.

 

[askele]

Safe to say FSW draws are suspended until August?

Yes. We used to say 470+ is the safe score.

Nowadays, if you’re CEC and have 465+ OR if you’re PNP, then you’re safe.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Since the beginning of the Express Entry program IRCC has stated that the average processing time is 6 months, some applications might take longer (about 20% according to them) or viceversa.

It wouldn't make sense for them to come now with a statement that basically says the same thing.

The way I see it is that because of the pandemic most applications won't be touched for at least 6 months.

I know it sucks, but under the current situation it is what would make more sense.

It's not the same thing though. Before, they said the average processing time is 6 months, which means some take longer, some take shorter, and that averages out to 6 months. Now, they're saying the minimum processing time is 6 months. That's a completely different statement. That's how I see it, at least.

 

[canadaimmigrant173]

the issue is not the temporary layoffs, it’s the turbulence caused in economy across whole world including Canada. This has to be stabilized in an effective manner and of course, GC has big role to play in pulling this back to form.
Reality is that the turbulence itself and coming shockwaves cannot be flipped overnight or even in a few quarters.
Sorry to say but we are in a similar 2008 form global recession.

I doubt this is the same as the 2008 recession. 2008 was a systemic failure in the economy. This is a human capital issue which is affecting demand. As a result businesses are shutting down (they have no one to sell to). Once forced closure is lifted, demand will pick back up and hence businesses will start hiring and producing again. Though this will take time, I doubt it will take decades - with the stimulus the central banks are providing, I feel this is will be rectified in 2 quarters to 3 quarters.

 

[ZAtoCD]

I doubt this is the same as the 2008 recession. 2008 was a systemic failure in the economy. This is a human capital issue which is affecting demand. As a result businesses are shutting down (they have no one to sell to). Once forced closure is lifted, demand will pick back up and hence businesses will start hiring and producing again. Though this will take time, I doubt it will take decades - with the stimulus the central banks are providing, I feel this is will be rectified in 2 quarters to 3 quarters.

Bear in mind, many were expecting a 2008-esque recession to happen soon anyway. So, if you are of that mind, this basically just pushed us into that sooner. It's not like capitalism and those who perpetuate it learned any lessons from 2008. Big companies got bailed out, rich people got richer from stocks. The world goes on, and every few years... another recession. So, perhaps the problems here are systemic, not just because of COVID.

Having said that, I have faith in the Canadian government, and hope for a speedy recovery.

 

[canadaimmigrant173]

Bear in mind, many were expecting a 2008-esque recession to happen soon anyway. So, if you are of that mind, this basically just pushed us into that sooner. It's not like capitalism and those who perpetuate it learned any lessons from 2008. Big companies got bailed out, rich people got richer from stocks. The world goes on, and every few years... another recession. So, perhaps the problems here are systemic, not just because of COVID.

Having said that, I have faith in the Canadian government, and hope for a speedy recovery.

I disagree - we had a long bull run and that overvalued businesses. However, it would have been a correction in market valuation, not a recession. COVID did bring the correction upon us sooner, but it brought about more than a correction. That is why the next bull run will pick up fairly sooner.

Additionally, big companies will have to get bailed out because they are crucial to the economy and aid in employment. Rich people did not get richer from stocks, people who hedged their positions did.

In my opinion, the Canadian government will not be the one spurring the speedy recovery, it will be the Canadian consumer. As consumption is highly restricted now, economy is in a spiral. Once consumption picks up, employment numbers will go up, GDP will go up, investor confidence will go up and we will be on an upward trajectory again.

The biggest caveat is that they find a way to keep the virus numbers under control and instill confidence in people to go to work and go out.

 

[cybertruck]

Bear in mind, many were expecting a 2008-esque recession to happen soon anyway. So, if you are of that mind, this basically just pushed us into that sooner. It's not like capitalism and those who perpetuate it learned any lessons from 2008. Big companies got bailed out, rich people got richer from stocks. The world goes on, and every few years... another recession. So, perhaps the problems here are systemic, not just because of COVID.

Having said that, I have faith in the Canadian government, and hope for a speedy recovery.

Extremely important that we first understand how economy is linked to Immigration. I read some fellows disagree to this but bear in mind Federal Express Entry comes under “Economic Immigration” Yes you heard it right GC has titled this program as the both are linked to each other.

Secondly, GC is doing their best to minimize the long term impact of temporary layoffs by supporting businesses across Canada with wage subsidy and if the legislation passes in coming weeks, this will have good if not best impact. This will further be supported by (partially wave-off) loans for SMBs act approved yesterday. All of this to keep economy going and it is no doubt a marvelous effort.

Also let us not ignore the fact that Canada does not want unemployment rate at a staggering point permanently or for long term. So if Over supply of foreign workers is triggered with less demand of jobs in the market, again unemployment will increase they are playing it very smartly.

 

[jollystripes]

With regard to the PNP draw, does it mean that someone had as low as 98 CRS points, then got nomination points, since the least drawn was 698? Someone please enlighten me.

 

[navinball]

With regard to the PNP draw, does it mean that someone had as low as 98 CRS points, then got nomination points, since the least drawn was 698? Someone please enlighten me.

Yeah there are some buffoons who are barely qualified to even crack 100 points who end up getting 600 points because some long lost relative put up roots in manitoba.
And how does a restaurant server at tim hortons qualify for Canadian exp points anyways, what kind of glorious expertise in this industry gives 200 points?
This whole thing is a sham.

 

[navinball]

I mean you need to have some extraordinary superhuman sort of abilities to score a 98 CRS score. Even going on the CRS calculator and selecting 'No' on every answer will give atleast 200 points.

 

[Majid Nawaz]

Guys need some expert opinion on this.

I am stuck at 470. Occupation is marketing executive. Ielts is expiring on Aug 18,2020. Since there's no FSW draw happening as per trend, would you please guide me should
1- I apply for PNP if YES then what's the procedure? or
2-Wait for the FSW draw in near future?

 

[ZAtoCD]

Guys need some expert opinion on this.

I am stuck at 470. Occupation is marketing executive. Ielts is expiring on Aug 18,2020. Since there's no FSW draw happening as per trend, would you please guide me should
1- I apply for PNP if YES then what's the procedure? or
2-Wait for the FSW draw in near future?

I am in the same position as you. You can do both at the same time. Lots of PNPs require a job offer, or they just select you out the pool while you do nothing. So, have a look at the individual province's PNP websites and find out more info. You can do that while staying in the pool for a future FSW draw.

 

[Rubyred]

Yeah there are some buffoons who are barely qualified to even crack 100 points who end up getting 600 points because some long lost relative put up roots in manitoba.
And how does a restaurant server at tim hortons qualify for Canadian exp points anyways, what kind of glorious expertise in this industry gives 200 points?
This whole thing is a sham.

'some buffoons' as opposed to you whose some sort of brilliant immigrant genius? Obviously you come from a culture which likes to shame people because of their jobs. And why shouldn't a restaurant server qualify?