It’s not due to the protected-person cases. The increase is because the annual quota was reduced from 40,000 to 18,000, which explains why the projected processing time rose to 8.6 years. It is simple math.
2023 PR Applications Timeline (Protected Persons & Refugees)
- Thread starter jinglebell0123
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That’s not really how it works. IRCC adjusts its targets every year and doesn’t limit PR spots for protected persons. The long timelines people see online include everyone in the queue, even cases that are already finalized or inactive. Once older files clear out, newer ones move faster. The tracker uses estimates, not real case times, so 5–10 years isn’t realistic at all.
I reviewed the model and published data. They issue about 1,368 FDs per month and complete one month’s files before moving to the next—consistent with what we’ve seen. About 5% are outliers (e.g., some 2022 cases). A formula for wait time is
x=p/1368, where p is the queue size, and x is the wait time. you can validate my model with puplished data (check it for 2023, 2024, or 2025 applicants. you can not apply it for 2022 because they are outlayer). The only real way to reduce waits is to increase the monthly quota(1368).
Ai is works fine based on published data. I think they will change the quota. Otherwise, some of us will wait 9 years or more
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Unfortunately this is the bitter reality,public opinion see's refugees as burdens and politicians always look into charts to make decisions. Iam an April 2023 applicant but according to the new system I've to wait at least 8 more months, it just doesn't add up as we know the process is going forward with mid March applications now.i think the applications on final stages get sorted out sooner but with the back log and processing speed unfortunately the newer applications probably end up waiting for 5 plus years.we are not priority in any way and we have to accept this fact.sad day for thousands of people indeed.
Hello everyone
I just heard the news regarding processing time for refugees, it's insane!! Plz some one tell me these numbers are unreal
How can anyone wait that long?
The average waiting time was 25 month few days ago and suddenly it turned in to an other 2 years from now, what's next? Like waiting for an other 2 years and they're gonna increase the time again
I just heard the news regarding processing time for refugees, it's insane!! Plz some one tell me these numbers are unreal
How can anyone wait that long?
The average waiting time was 25 month few days ago and suddenly it turned in to an other 2 years from now, what's next? Like waiting for an other 2 years and they're gonna increase the time again
Followed all the steps. But wandering if anyone can access those numbers now, it shows data not available when I’m checking. Maybe they’re doing system check or something.
Oh my, I just checked and got the same thing... Seems they updated the system, but the info is not there... I have a bad feeling about this. But want to keep hopeful!
Protected persons and convention refugees in Canada: Outside Quebec
Estimated time left
Data not availableLast updated: 08/09/2025 Updated monthly
Processing times may increase
The Immigration Levels Plan sets the number of newcomers that Canada plans to welcome each year. If there are more people applying than available spaces, processing times may increase.
People ahead of you:
Data not available
Total number of people waiting for a decision:
Data not available
People applying now should be processed in:
Data not available
Hi, I was able to access the information on Laptop, Im February 26, 2023 applicant and the processing time shows 5 more months left with 8300 applicants ahead of me. My friend applied on May 20, 2023 and her waiting period is 10 more months with 14500 applicants ahead of her. This gives an insight into where we stand.
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