The one-time 2-year initiative regarding 115,000 protected persons

[Galactus]

Hello Community...

I attended a meeting a few weeks ago with a refugee support group. They addressed several things.. like the support provided to refugees/protected persons by this board and other organizations advocating for refugees/protected persons; why IRCC's estimated processing times had changed dramatically from 99 months to 17 months for protected persons (outside Quebec), who would be included in the 115,000 initiative.. etc.

Unfortunately, protected persons in Quebec are not YET included in the 2-year one-time initiative to give PR to 115,000 protected persons. As a result, Quebec's annual PR quota for protected persons still stand at 4,000 every year. Negotiations are still ongoing between the federal government and Quebec to be part of this initiative.

Why IRCC's estimated processing times changed from 99 months to 17 months for protected persons (outside Quebec)?

Up to December 31, 2025, IRCC followed a retrospective approach, where IRCC updated their estimated processing times based on the number of applications actually processed during the past months, and also based on the updated immigration plans (PR quotas for protected persons).

Starting from January 1, 2026, IRCC decided to follow a prospective approach, taking into account the 2-year initiative, assuming that every month over the coming 24 months, there will be PR for approximately 5,000 protected persons. However, the refugee organization explained that IRCC was still mobilizing and preparing to implement this 2-year initiative, expecting that this would take effect from April 2026 onward. This may explain why we have not seen any major progress in January 2026.

According to this refugee organization, the focus of this one-time initiative will be to finalize the PR applications for those inside Canada. Dependents of protected persons who are outside Canada (like my case) will not be part of this initiative. I hope this will change.

So, especially for those 2023-2024 PR applicants still desperately waiting without any progress, you are almost there.. It won't be long before your files will start 'flying'

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Personally, I hope that IRCC can introduce a 'bridge' pathway, similar to EMPP, where protected persons who meet certain requirements can qualify for expedited processing similar to economic immigrants. I'm sure that there are thousands of protected persons who could qualify as EE or CEC candidates, but who are not eligible to apply because of their protected person status.
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Good luck everybody... Have faith in God. Do all that you can to prove to yourselves that you deserve to live on this blessed land.

Thanks for the update!

It is great news, for all of you outside QC. You will get PR soon! As for us in Quebec, it seems the wait time is going to be 2+ more years (already 34 months down, but who is counting hehe), so sad.

I had my doubts that QC was going to easily be part of the one-time initiative and you are now confirming that. I'm crossing my fingers they agree in the end, but to be honest, I doubt it. Maybe 80% (no)/20% (yes).

If you could expand on the QC stand/situation/negotiation/perspectives, I would appreciate it so much. I am so eagerly looking for info on that and this is the first piece of info ever since they announced the initiative.

Thanks!

 

[Mancini]

Thanks for the update!

It is great news, for all of you outside QC. You will get PR soon! As for us in Quebec, it seems the wait time is going to be 2+ more years (already 34 months down, but who is counting hehe), so sad.

I had my doubts that QC was going to easily be part of the one-time initiative and you are now confirming that. I'm crossing my fingers they agree in the end, but to be honest, I doubt it. Maybe 80% (no)/20% (yes).

If you could expand on the QC stand/situation/negotiation/perspectives, I would appreciate it so much. I am so eagerly looking for info on that and this is the first piece of info ever since they announced the initiative.

Thanks!

Hello @Galactus

I don't want to disappoint you. Frankly, what was said in the meeting was that Quebec had not agreed to be part of this one-time initiative.

However, discussions are still ongoing between the federal government and Quebec. Maybe it is that Quebec wants to secure additional funding from the federal government. With the change in Quebec's government, hopefully things will progress well and Quebec will be part of this initiative.

What makes me optimistic about this is that at the time when IRCC drafted and announced this initiative, the number of protected persons across Canada (including Quebec) was almost 115,000. The initiative was intended to include all the protected persons at that time.

As the immigration minister clearly put it, these protected persons are already here, well established, filing taxes, integrated in the community, it is only a formality to change their category from a protected person (not temporary, not permanent, but somewhere in between) and give them PR.

The same facts that I mentioned in my earlier comment apply to Quebec. The total number of population is almost 9.11 millions. The natural population growth rate is at historical low levels. The funny part is that the total number of protected persons in Quebec as at December 31, 2025 is 36,300, i.e. less that 0.4%!!!!

The published annual immigration plan of Quebec 2026-2029 is 45,000 per year, in 2025 it was 61,000.. There is a basic valid argument: These 33,300 protected persons are already in Quebec.. Have been living in Quebec for years.. so hopefully this will be at the end taken into consideration by the Quebec government.

Stay optimistic and positive!

 

[Mancini]

These are the numbers of protected persons and dependents outside Canada (from the IRCC estimated processing times page):

As of December 31, 2025:

Protected persons outside Quebec: 95,500
Protected persons in Quebec: 36,300
Total: 131,800

Dependents outside Canada outside Quebec: 54,100
Dependents outside Canada in Quebec: 24,400
Total: 78,500
Logically, the majority of these dependents are 21 years old and younger.

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Some interesting numbers about the workforce and retirement:

Canada is currently experiencing the largest wave of retirements in its history, with approximately 2.7 million baby boomers (aged 60–64) expected to exit the workforce over the next five years.

Some of the impacts on the Canadian economy:
- Labor shortage
- Lower productivity & growth
- Reduced tax base

 

[Galactus]

Hello @Galactus

I don't want to disappoint you. Frankly, what was said in the meeting was that Quebec had not agreed to be part of this one-time initiative.

However, discussions are still ongoing between the federal government and Quebec. Maybe it is that Quebec wants to secure additional funding from the federal government. With the change in Quebec's government, hopefully things will progress well and Quebec will be part of this initiative.

What makes me optimistic about this is that at the time when IRCC drafted and announced this initiative, the number of protected persons across Canada (including Quebec) was almost 115,000. The initiative was intended to include all the protected persons at that time.

As the immigration minister clearly put it, these protected persons are already here, well established, filing taxes, integrated in the community, it is only a formality to change their category from a protected person (not temporary, not permanent, but somewhere in between) and give them PR.

The same facts that I mentioned in my earlier comment apply to Quebec. The total number of population is almost 9.11 millions. The natural population growth rate is at historical low levels. The funny part is that the total number of protected persons in Quebec as at December 31, 2025 is 36,300, i.e. less that 0.4%!!!!

The published annual immigration plan of Quebec 2026-2029 is 45,000 per year, in 2025 it was 61,000.. There is a basic valid argument: These 33,300 protected persons are already in Quebec.. Have been living in Quebec for years.. so hopefully this will be at the end taken into consideration by the Quebec government.

Stay optimistic and positive!

Thank you for your well-explained reply.

I want to stay positive, definitively, but QC doesn't make it any easy.

Hopefully, it is as you hypothesized, a potential tug of war for securing more funding. If so, we still have some hope.

I agree with you that the arguments for speeding up the PR for the 115k refugees in the pipeline is overwhelming; actually arguing against it is the difficult part (or at least that is how I see it).

But QC doesn't see it eye to eye.

Even the PR timelines in QC and out of QC shows a huge cleavage... which at least for me, are not legally convincing: the federal government is the one in charge of approving the PR for refugees (Canada-QC Accord, Article 20), but QC's times double the rest of Canada.

Why? it beats me.

The Canada-QC Accord doesn't say anywhere that I'm aware of that processing PRs for refugees in QC is different from rest of Canada.

Informally, rumour has it, that it is all about QC's annual PR quota for refugees in QC (I think around 5k for 2026 if my memory doesn't fail me), which would therefore contradict Article 20 of said Accord (I'm not a lawyer, so maybe my logic is fraying somewhere).

Said Accord is here: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...g-immigration-temporary-admission-aliens.html

Sorry, I'm mostly venting, it's so frustrating.

One additional question: If QC adheres to the initiative, when do you think we would know? Hard question, I know, just in case.

And if you know something new, please please keep us posted,

Thanks again!

 

[Mancini]

Dear @Galactus

I have shared all the information that I have. Definitely if I come across anything I will post in in this forum.

The Federal government's annual quota for PR for protected persons was around 15-18 thousands.. This is why IRCC's estimated processing times, back in October, indicated it would take over 99 months to clear all the backlog, then came this one-time initiative for IRCC to try to clear the backlog. Logically, QC should follow suit.

Let's hope for the best...