Ray of hope 58th draw?

[jackdawn]

The year all the draws have been more than 3k except for jan first draw which was close to 3k.

They have issued around 24k ITA's till now and even if we assume that some 20% were rejected or not eligible they are still left with around 50k ita's to b issued.

May be the draw size wud remain between 2-5-3 k for the rest of the year.

 

[Pawshi]

From my point of view, rejection rate would be higher. In last three months, I have seen many cases where applicants have created multiple profiles with different email IDs and with the same passport number for primary applicant. This is strongly no no from IRCC and those profiles with ITAs will get rejected for sure.

 

[kryt0n]

From my point of view, rejection rate would be higher. In last three months, I have seen many cases where applicants have created multiple profiles with different email IDs and with the same passport number for primary applicant. This is strongly no no from IRCC and those profiles with ITAs will get rejected for sure.

I think a lot of the rejected profiles come from lawyers testing the system as well, rather then genuine applicants getting rejected. Although ircc try hard to prevent this unfortunately it means that the ita score cut off is higher to account for the 'fake' profiles. Ugh.

 

[jackdawn]

I think a lot of the rejected profiles come from lawyers testing the system as well, rather then genuine applicants getting rejected. Although ircc try hard to prevent this unfortunately it means that the ita score cut off is higher to account for the 'fake' profiles. Ugh.

True and very unfortunate with genuine profiles suffering

 

[Pawshi]

IRCC should cancel their registration, if any.

 

[Pawshi]

Or increase the draw size. How long the lawyers and consultants will create the fake profiles???

 

[kryt0n]

I can't think of an easy way to stop it happening unfortunately.

There's so many factors which contributes to the minimum score, factors we can't understand (although i wish IRCC would publish something). I think we will forever be guessing with it.

At least with the November 2016 changes we can see the scores in the 400-450 having a very real possibility of being the norm.

 

[yuanteo]

i think there's not much point in analyzing so much because things don't seem to come out according as expected!

guess the best is to hope for the best, prepare for the worst!

just go about doing our daily lives... focusing on things that we can control instead.

good luck and all the best everybody!!

 

[ajkidwai]

What people need to understand is regardless of the X number of NEW entrants in the EE pool between draws, the distribution of EE profile scores cannot be assumed to be normal. Few factors can increase scores such as language tests, years of experience, obtaining higher degrees, however as one can observe, these factors are time-consuming for the most part. It is easier to lose points (changing civil status, growing older (29+).

In addition language test performance tends to remain fairly stable over time. When retaking tests, improvements if any are only marginal. The marginal differences can mean shifting to a higher proficiency level for some, but this will apply to a few profiles relative to the total number of active profiles.

So with each decreasing point, the number of EE profiles increase, by how much, nobody knows except IRCC. Therefore the distribution is more than likely positively skewed. Let's say for the sake of argument there are 1000 profiles with 430, 1500 at 429 and 2300 at 428 and 5000 at 427, it is obvious that IRCC will not go past a certain threshold because say a draw is held with cutoff of 428, EVERYBODY with scores above 428 PLUS all the 2300 profiles (in the example) with 428 points will need to be invited and this is just unrealistic since 1) it will make PNP's avoidable by applicants *i.e. no money for provinces*; 2) the "quality" of future of immigrants will be "too low" to accomodate for all of them without possible straining the resources of the country and also to avoid setbacks and significant burden which may be experienced by new immigrants (like it or not, immigration services rate prospective applicants on factors likely to affect successful settlement in the country, take the medical exam as an example); 3) the quotas of immigrants will be reached too quickly and they will have to replan and rethink intakes, frequency, quotas, etc at the federal level.

Let me stress that I am in no way wanting to crush people's hopes, but instead I just want to help people having realistic expectations and hopes regarding the process. I know I will get many more -1 but so be it.

Good luck to everyone of you.

What you got wrong was "quality" of future of immigrants will be "too low"..............Let me remind you that everyone over 400 is qualified, probably possessing 2 bachelors or a master degree, high IELTS scores and experienced. The only disadvantage might be age.

This is why Ontario prefers people above 400 CRS scores and somewhere i saw a video where the IRCC representative also mentioned that they are targeting the lot at 400-450.

 

[robinsonjoel]

Well, it is glad that points have been brought down. Ever since there was a sudden dip this Feb, I have been looking at options to increase my score. I will be more than happy if they bring it below my score level, but I am also looking at increasing my scores. Good luck to all!

 

[jackdawn]

What you got wrong was "quality" of future of immigrants will be "too low"..............Let me remind you that everyone over 400 is qualified, probably possessing 2 bachelors or a master degree, high IELTS scores and experienced. The only disadvantage might be age.

This is why Ontario prefers people above 400 CRS scores and somewhere i saw a video where the IRCC representative also mentioned that they are targeting the lot at 400-450.

Only till 36 years of age, ul have advantage of score above 400 if u have a clb 10 and have a masters post 36 even if u have good human capital factors in ielts/exp/edu ur age will drag u down under 400

 

[fatani]

What people need to understand is regardless of the X number of NEW entrants in the EE pool between draws, the distribution of EE profile scores cannot be assumed to be normal. Few factors can increase scores such as language tests, years of experience, obtaining higher degrees, however as one can observe, these factors are time-consuming for the most part. It is easier to lose points (changing civil status, growing older (29+).

In addition language test performance tends to remain fairly stable over time. When retaking tests, improvements if any are only marginal. The marginal differences can mean shifting to a higher proficiency level for some, but this will apply to a few profiles relative to the total number of active profiles.

So with each decreasing point, the number of EE profiles increase, by how much, nobody knows except IRCC. Therefore the distribution is more than likely positively skewed. Let's say for the sake of argument there are 1000 profiles with 430, 1500 at 429 and 2300 at 428 and 5000 at 427, it is obvious that IRCC will not go past a certain threshold because say a draw is held with cutoff of 428, EVERYBODY with scores above 428 PLUS all the 2300 profiles (in the example) with 428 points will need to be invited and this is just unrealistic since 1) it will make PNP's avoidable by applicants *i.e. no money for provinces*; 2) the "quality" of future of immigrants will be "too low" to accomodate for all of them without possible straining the resources of the country and also to avoid setbacks and significant burden which may be experienced by new immigrants (like it or not, immigration services rate prospective applicants on factors likely to affect successful settlement in the country, take the medical exam as an example); 3) the quotas of immigrants will be reached too quickly and they will have to replan and rethink intakes, frequency, quotas, etc at the federal level.

Let me stress that I am in no way wanting to crush people's hopes, but instead I just want to help people having realistic expectations and hopes regarding the process. I know I will get many more -1 but so be it.

Good luck to everyone of you.

And I think you are kid your statement is childish. As ajkidwai said anyone with 400+ would have CLB 8-9 level of english and good work exp and will be in early 30s. This system is made to give canada a more stable immigration process this system is made in view that highly skilled and qualified applicants are taken.

I think you know nothing about canadian immigration in the past before Express entry anyone with 67/100 points would have qualified to file a paper application regardless of their age language abilities work exp. That was the reason that huge paper application backlog was created. All they needed was to get 67/100 points.

My 50 yr old uncle got immigration in 2010 who would have barely got 300 points in Express entry. Lots of people like him got immigration. With this system everyone who enters the pool has minimum 67 points out of 100. But they need good CRS in order to apply. In Express Entry pool lots of applicants are in the range of 200-350. They all have 67 out of 100 points but they cant apply because they will not become successful with this low human capital scores. In the past all of them would have got in. So get your facts right before posting any comment.

 

[Pushpaacna]

I think a lot of the rejected profiles come from lawyers testing the system as well, rather then genuine applicants getting rejected. Although ircc try hard to prevent this unfortunately it means that the ita score cut off is higher to account for the 'fake' profiles. Ugh.

My thought was also in that line. However, I was wondering what duplicate/fake ones entered for IELTS TRF no/ECA ref no/Passport no in their EE profile? Did they use duplicate/fake ref nos as well?

 

[johnmunch]

What you got wrong was "quality" of future of immigrants will be "too low"..............Let me remind you that everyone over 400 is qualified, probably possessing 2 bachelors or a master degree, high IELTS scores and experienced. The only disadvantage might be age.

This is why Ontario prefers people above 400 CRS scores and somewhere i saw a video where the IRCC representative also mentioned that they are targeting the lot at 400-450.

Please do not jump to conclusions and notice the quotation marks. Relative to people with 450+ scores, those with less are considered "less desirable". If not, why rank candidates? This is a rhetorical queston. As you mentioned about Ontario, it's all about getting pnp money.

 

[kryt0n]

Please do not jump to conclusions and notice the quotation marks. Relative to people with 450+ scores, those with less are considered "less desirable". If not, why rank candidates? This is a rhetorical queston. As you mentioned about Ontario, it's all about getting pnp money.

In November ircc changed the scoring system because they recognised that those with 400-450 were missing out on ITAs because those with ~300 were getting 600 points for lmia's. Essentially unskilled workers were getting picked above skilled workers. They changed it so now those in that range are more likely to get a direct ita. Also, those with 400 or above may not be eligible for pnp's, so they can still drop the scores to 400 so those skilled workers stand a chance.