Ray of hope 58th draw?

[grapehair]

No worries, the CRS will lurk around and then drop. As long as the number of invites and 2 week gap remains, it'll surely drop

 

[Navprateek]

I think it will stay close to 442 - 445. Provinces have started approving PNP's and people are getting additional points for the same. As per my assumption score will now only go higher.

I hope I am wrong here.

 

[Boviesam]

I think it will stay close to 442 - 445. Provinces have started approving PNP's and people are getting additional points for the same. As per my assumption score will now only go higher.

I hope I am wrong here.

Is this true?

 

[Zessie]

The question is whether CIC will increase the number of people who get invited. If the number stays around 3700, there is a chance for the score to drop under 440.

Also, what do you guys think? The next draw would be on 5th or 12th of April? I am asking this question for my best friend who is still waiting for IELTS on Mar. 25th.

 

[MattyTj]

The question is whether CIC will increase the number of people who get invited. If the number stays around 3700, there is a chance for the score to drop under 440.

Also, what do you guys think? The next draw would be on 5th or 12th of April? I am asking this question for my best friend who is still waiting for IELTS on Mar. 25th.

I think because the last draw was very spaced out, the next one will occur on or before the 5th of April. Just a hunch! . I think points will come down a bit if this happens as no new IELTS scores will be coming out before then, so I think there will be less people entering the pool than during the last 23 day gap.

 

[grapehair]

I think because the last draw was very spaced out, the next one will occur on or before the 5th of April. Just a hunch! . I think points will come down a bit if this happens as no new IELTS scores will be coming out before then, so I think there will be less people entering the pool than during the last 23 day gap.

I concur. Since the gap was of 23 days, it should actually happen by the 5th of April. And when it does, score is more likely to come down than creep up.

 

[MattyTj]

Is this true?

Provinces release nominations all year round. I don't sense that a "bunch" of these went out recently. Yes, some did, but they technically always do. We only need to panic if IRCC decides to go another 3 weeks between draws. Best of luck to us all! 8). I might need to borrow a defibrillator if that happens again!

On the small chance that a draw happens this Wednesday, I think the points would definitely come down, possibly by a margin of 8-10! Let's hope and pray!

 

[Boviesam]

Provinces release nominations all year round. I don't sense that a "bunch" of these went out recently. Yes, some did, but they technically always do. We only need to panic if IRCC decides to go another 3 weeks between draws. Best of luck to us all! 8). I might need to borrow a defibrillator if that happens again!

On the small chance that a draw happens this Wednesday, I think the points would definitely come down, possibly by a margin of 8-10! Let's hope and pray!

I hope it cuts down 10 points. Atleast until 431 so that I am in.

 

[grapehair]

It was the first time in months that the score actually went up. Otherwise, the score kept running southwards as well know.

 

[Navprateek]

Provinces release nominations all year round. I don't sense that a "bunch" of these went out recently. Yes, some did, but they technically always do. We only need to panic if IRCC decides to go another 3 weeks between draws. Best of luck to us all! 8). I might need to borrow a defibrillator if that happens again!

On the small chance that a draw happens this Wednesday, I think the points would definitely come down, possibly by a margin of 8-10! Let's hope and pray!

I hope what you said is true, people I know who were waiting for their PNP's didn't hear anything since last week. Till that date score was going down, and it followed the same pattern. Since last week when provinces has started giving out nominations the score for EE did boost up and it was pretty obvious.
I do want the score to go down lets hope for the best.

 

[anirr]

If the draw happens on March 29, Wed, below is my guess with some statistical modelling and also some assumptions:

No. of ITAs: 3700+ going by the trend.
CRS Cutoff: 432-435.

Calculations:

1. March 1 - March 24 (23 days): 3749 ppl got added above 441.

2. Assumption: Not more than 50%, got added between 434 and 440 during this period i.e. max 1900 ppl.

3. Now if the draw happens on March 29, i.e. 5 days proportionately in 5 days: Ppl added in 434-440 range: 1900*5/23 = 400 ppl and 441 plus: 3749*5/23=815 ppl.

4. This makes it a total of 1900+815+400=3115 ppl approx above 434 in the pool on March 29.

5. On point 3 above, I discounted the fact that there is no IELTS and CELPIP till then, hence in reality lesser ppl wud be added. And assumption is PNP will still be thr proportionate to last 23 day period.

6. Now going with the trend of around 3700 ITAs per draw, 3115 ppl will get the score down to 434 and additional 600 would mean another point or two below.

Hence my guess, 432-433 with arnd 3700 ITAs.

Thanks. Your views pls!

nice work!!

 

[jasontan]

were at 426.. anyone at 426?

keep your hopes us!

see you all in Canada

 

[arrayofhope]

were at 426.. anyone at 426?

keep your hopes us!

see you all in Canada

At 425!!

 

[HangingFlowers]

Hi,

I got my ITA with the last draw. I initially hired a consultant for my entire application process for Canada PR and after receiving my ITA, my consultant is asking me hell lot of money to proceed with the further application process.
Is there anyone who has done the process by themselves or can refer someone who can help out?

Thanks

 

[picklee]

If the draw happens on March 29, Wed, below is my guess with some statistical modelling and also some assumptions:

No. of ITAs: 3700+ going by the trend.
CRS Cutoff: 432-435.

Calculations:

1. March 1 - March 24 (23 days): 3749 ppl got added above 441.

2. Assumption: Not more than 50%, got added between 434 and 440 during this period i.e. max 1900 ppl.

3. Now if the draw happens on March 29, i.e. 5 days proportionately in 5 days: Ppl added in 434-440 range: 1900*5/23 = 400 ppl and 441 plus: 3749*5/23=815 ppl.

4. This makes it a total of 1900+815+400=3115 ppl approx above 434 in the pool on March 29.

5. On point 3 above, I discounted the fact that there is no IELTS and CELPIP till then, hence in reality lesser ppl wud be added. And assumption is PNP will still be thr proportionate to last 23 day period.

6. Now going with the trend of around 3700 ITAs per draw, 3115 ppl will get the score down to 434 and additional 600 would mean another point or two below.

Hence my guess, 432-433 with arnd 3700 ITAs.

Thanks. Your views pls!

I think you are on the right track, although it's not clear where your numbers are coming from. I would predict much higher resistance in the downward trends of scores. Particularly, when IRCC issues ITAs, they do so quantitatively. For example, they say we need approximately 3700 candidates, but they have to issue the draw based on a whole number and there are perhaps hundreds of candidates for each CRS point between 420-440. The reason the scores came down in the previous draws seems fairly obvious to me: the draws were issued in quick succession, so fewer people entered or moved up the pool between draws.

If a draw comes next week with another 3700 ITAs, then we can expect the score to fall again, possibly to 432. If the draw comes in two weeks or is less than 3000 ITAs, then the score will probably be about the same, low 440s. One thing that we can expect this year is a lot of ITAs issues. I conservatively predicted around 68,000 total ITAs this year.

My analysis on the express entry pool is found at the thread below:

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/analysis-of-express-entry-statistics-t476369.0.html