How can we be sure that the 2000 who will be added to the pool will have a score that is 470 plus. Its very difficult to predict the impact on the next FSW draw. If we take proportionality into account considering very few people, already in the pool, in the range of 470 plus, the cutoff should still go down.If this is a CEC week, around 1000 of the new 2000 who joined from 470+ will be taken away from the pool. So if it's FSW next time, the total of new entrants since July 8 would be approx. 3000 (this 1000 + 2000 over the next two weeks). I think the score is likely to be around 475-476 in that case.
But these are just pointless analyses right now since we have no clue what category will be drawn from the pool in what week. No point predicting.
I am at 474 and will lose 5 points on 20 August. I am hopeful that I'll get through by then.