Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[joconstantine]

A lot of H1-Bers also don't want to deal with the weather in Canada, especially those based in U.S states with hotter climates.

There is also a growing movement for them to return to their home countries such as in India, where there are a lot turning to entrepreneurship and commencing start-ups, and they can get a lot more value for money with their savings from the U.S in terms of real estate and so on.

It's not a given everyone will leave for Canada, there are also options in Europe and Australia as well.

Agreed. Canada is actually not always the first and best option. People I know from my university always aimed for US, Australia and Europe before considering Canada. Those who managed to achieve bigs in their career chose to stay back in Asia where the incomes provide them a much better life than immigrating to those developed nations.
Mostly, only couples who got married early chose Canada for better settling down.

 

[InternationalMallu]

Yes but there quite a few H1Bers who use Canada as a pit stop to gain citizenship and move back to the states eventually as well in all honesty.

 

[indianstudent96]

A lot of H1-Bers also don't want to deal with the weather in Canada, especially those based in U.S states with hotter climates.

There is also a growing movement for them to return to their home countries such as in India, where there are a lot turning to entrepreneurship and commencing start-ups, and they can get a lot more value for money with their savings from the U.S in terms of real estate and so on.

It's not a given everyone will leave for Canada, there are also options in Europe and Australia as well.

It's funny you mention that. I was talking to some H1B visa holders in the USA who could easily get an ITA in any FSW draw, but they told me they don't want to come to Canada due to the weather. This came from folks that were living in the northern states. In my opinion, temporary foreign workers in the US will try their best to stay in the US as long as possible. After all, they would not have moved to the US in the first place if they were so concerned about stability. There are so many H1B visa holders in the US who are in limbo now due to COVID-19. It's pretty absurd to think they will instantly come to Canada.

With this being said, the first few FSW draws will have higher cut-off scores and it should eventually drop to low 470s. It is very hard for anyone to achieve 475+ with the current criteria.

 

[Islander216]

Yes, people should understand that most H1-Bers are like star immigrants, they went to top unis, they're high achievers, they usually come from an affluent background, and they work for the top companies in the U.S, because only they are willing to go through all the hassle and expenses to bring them in.

They have a lot of options, Canada might be interesting to some of them but many will prefer other alternatives.

 

[Islander216]

Yes but there quite a few H1Bers who use Canada as a pit stop to gain citizenship and move back to the states eventually as well in all honesty.

There will be some i'm sure, but many will not want to stay 3+ years in a country they don't want to be long term just to secure citizenship.

To drain your savings to come another country, go through all the steps necessary, find a job, pay a lot in rent, wait to qualify for citizenship, all for the chance to return to the U.S, most will just choose to go somewhere they want to settle directly.

 

[Islander216]

It's funny you mention that. I was talking to some H1B visa holders in the USA who could easily get an ITA in any FSW draw, but they told me they don't want to come to Canada due to the weather. This came from folks that were living in the northern states. In my opinion, temporary foreign workers in the US will try their best to stay in the US as long as possible. After all, they would not have moved to the US in the first place if they were so concerned about stability. There are so many H1B visa holders in the US who are in limbo now due to COVID-19. It's pretty absurd to think they will instantly come to Canada.

With this being said, the first few FSW draws will have higher cut-off scores and it should eventually drop to low 470s. It is very hard for anyone to achieve 475+ with the current criteria.

Yes, and many H1-Bers are on the older side and will be a bit less competitive due to age according to the Canadian system.

Other systems like the Australian one don't have as heavy reductions for age, and reward you more for foreign experience. And the U.K has streamlined its work visa options to make it much faster and easier for you to immigrate there as well with a job offer. They're also implementing a points system too.

So other countries are also stepping up the competition for skilled immigrants.

 

[indianstudent96]

Yes, and many H1-Bers are on the older side and will be a bit less competitive due to age according to the Canadian system.

Other systems like the Australian one don't have as heavy reductions for age, and reward you more for foreign experience.

I agree. Canada is brutal when it comes to age. Someone with two or more certificates, CLB 10, and a year of Canadian work experience gets very close to an outland candidate with 3+ years of foreign skilled experience, a master's degree, and a CLB 10. I made these comparisons assuming both the applicants are under 30. The older you become, the harder it gets. In other words, if you do not capitalize after you meet the MEC for your program, it only becomes harder.

 

[Islander216]

Yes, but also what's brutal for those people is that they don't get additional points for foreign work experience they have over 3 years.

So someone in their 30's with 8-10 years of experience gets the same number of points as someone with only 3 years of experience.

So the Canadian system is heavily geared in favour of younger applicants ,which makes sense because they want young people due to their aging population, and i think they also factor in that young people have a better chance of acclimating to Canada.

And over here, they just believe very strongly that Canadian experience is king.

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

Yes, but also what's brutal for those people is that they don't get additional points for foreign work experience they have over 3 years.

So someone in their 30's with 8-10 years of experience gets the same number of points as someone with only 3 years of experience.

So the Canadian system is heavily geared in favour of younger applicants ,which makes sense because they want young people and i think they also factor in that young people have a better chance of acclimating to Canada.

And over here, they just believe very strongly that Canadian experience is king.

Younger also means more taxes over the length of the individuals life as well as labor jobs (which is what Canada really needs people for)

 

[Islander216]

Yes, but also crucially to pay for the welfare state for their aging population.

I don't know if you guys have heard of it, but there is a movement in Canada advocating a population of 100m people by 2100.

 

[Wrath]

A lot of people mask pessimism as realism.

Right now is anybody's guess, but we also don't know what IRCC might do to offset the disadvantage FSWs have had because of covid.

Maybe like back to back draws, which haven't occurred yet this year.

I understand the outlook looks grim, but this thing will end and return to normal. A new normal perhaps, but who thought CECs in the 430's were going to get a chance at getting ITAs?

Life is unpredictable.

I would choose realistic thinking being optimistic. That's how I got the ITA in February. When my initial score was 457 back in September 2019 people said cut off is gonna fall, later I realized its bs then I worked harder for score to reach 472.

 

[joconstantine]

I would choose realistic thinking being optimistic. That's how I got the ITA in February. When my initial score was 457 back in September 2019 people said cut off is gonna fall, later I realized its bs then I worked harder for score to reach 472.

Realistically, everyone should try to add more points, as much as possible. You did the right thing because 457 was just too far from the cut-offs before the pandemic. I only got to know this system earlier this year. When I started to prepare for IELTS test, I was only aiming for 8777. However, I realised that I could not just target the minimum so I went on to give my best. Now I feel thankful for that.
Other than that, I think you should remain optimistic as well after all your hard works. IRCC delaying all-program draws is something that we cannot change nor anything about it.

 

[kunalkardam]

So any predictions for the upcoming draw?
I suppose tomorrow is another draw?
Will FSW candidates be lucky this time around or would have to wait a wee bit longer?

 

[aj534160]

So any predictions for the upcoming draw?
I suppose tomorrow is another draw?
Will FSW candidates be lucky this time around or would have to wait a wee bit longer?

https://www.cicnews.com/2020/06/trudeau-canada-wont-rush-border-re-opening-despite-pressure-video-0614800.html#gs.8khq8c

Trudeau is clearly not interested to open borders, meaning we may see many more months of CEC exclusive draws
Again, this is only my analysis. Tides can turn
But I wish to be more realistic, so I can say more and more CEC exclusive draws can be expected

 

[joconstantine]

So any predictions for the upcoming draw?
I suppose tomorrow is another draw?
Will FSW candidates be lucky this time around or would have to wait a wee bit longer?

Personally, I think it will be PNP and CEC draw again. I learn not to give myself the false hope just to get disappointed again.
If otherwise, it will be a plus then.