Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Andy Eddy]

Lol at resuming next year!

In my own opinion, I think they will resume in June or July latest. The 27k invites is on average about the size of 8/9 draws all done at once. So, if the 27k invites had been allowed to spread on the normal bi-weekly basis, it would have lingered till May ending or first week in June.. That's how I came about June being the likely month for the return of the FSW draws.

All the best to everyone!

These items back up the idea of lifted travel restrictions (so hopefully resumed FSW draws) by this summer ;

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, told HuffPost he predicts Canada will be able to start lifting restrictions around summer 2021 — assuming the vaccines prevent transmission, and enough people get inoculated.

He anticipates the pandemic will be officially declared over by 2022, but noted it will likely still exist in some countries. That means international travel won’t go “back to normal for several years,” he said, adding some airlines may require proof of vaccination.

Source; https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/pandemic-end-2021-vaccine_ca_5fdd1767c5b60d4163425d78

See also https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada/video/2021-is-looking-to-be-a-good-news-year-epidemiologist-on-vaccine-roll-out~2103108

 

[hkstud1989]

the federal high skilled goal this year is 110k people: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html (not counting PNP since it's has a separate quota)

ITAs sent this year is about 37k: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/policies-operational-instructions-agreements/ministerial-instructions/express-entry-rounds.html (again, excluding PNP)

the forum had roughly calculated that 1 ITA = 2 immigrants on average. I'd argue this is lower for CECs since they're mostly partners/couples both living in canada, hence both receiving separate invitations. anyway, that's 75k immigrants accepted so far. they need about 35k more, for which they'll need to send out 15-20k fsw ITAs.

IRCC only counts people already in canada for their target setting so most CECs count towards the target.fsws invited in previous years can't land due to covid. also, IRCC knows inviting someone this year means they land next year. there will be a few new CECs joining in the pool but I doubt IRCC will have CEC draws just for a few people. they'll most likely take those new CECs in with FSW draws in the second half of 2021. I think there's little chance that we wouldn't see fsw draws this year.

From the same link (the first one) you provided, it is clear that partners/spouses/children are not counted in the 108.5K target of Federal High Skilled. There is a specific target of 80K for "Spouses, Partners, and Children". In order to hit the 400K total target, they should definitely draw more candidates than the years before if they plan to grant PR to TRV holders. The reason is most students are living alone (no family or partner), thus the average family size per ITA would reduce significantly (which stops them from reaching 80K and other targets)

 

[NOC98]

I can’t recall where I read this but, there are current temporary foreign workers who did not even bother creating an EE profile because of the high CRS cut offs. The high cut off scores acted as a deterrent for some in submitting a profile in the first place. Maybe that’s why IRCC decided to have that draw with a very low score to signal to many temporary foreign workers that Canada is seriously looking to inviting more of them to stay permanently.

This is an article is from last year, but as of 2018 there are 429k temporary foreign workers in Canada. I can’t find any recent figures though or what’s the composition — full time or seasonal. Maybe this is where the IRCC minister is getting his confidence that they’d be able to meet their immigration targets this year. https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2020/07/22/canada-increasingly-selects-temporary-foreign-workers-for-immigration-report/

 

[Adam Tsao]

we will have to have a close look at the vaccination process in Canada, I believe that is the dominant factor of reopening the border.
with 3 available vaccines now, it is not hard to reach 64% of the population vaccinated by Canada day. plus Health Canada might approve Johnson and Johnson vaccine this month, let's say, if everything goes well, it is possible to get 70% of the population vaccinated by July.
never expect 100% of the population can be vaccinated because there are at least 10% do not want to get a vaccine at all.
however, 70% is enough to protect Canada from covid already. so I believe that PM would declare that Canada is going back to normal this summer, maybe on Canada day or later.
by then, I believe IRCC would start new draws including FSWs, and they might finally start processing backlogged FSWs ( like me) maybe in the late Q3 or early Q4.
of course, what might mess up the schedule is the third wave of the covid pandemic., with the new varients and many provinces are reopening now, it is possible for Canada to experience another lockdown in March and April. but with the help of mass vaccination which has started, the third wave and lockdown would not last too long, I totally believe that Canadians can celebrate Canada day and enjoy summer this year.
guys, just stay positive and do your job now, everything is in God's hand.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

we will have to have a close look at the vaccination process in Canada, I believe that is the dominant factor of reopening the border.
with 3 available vaccines now, it is not hard to reach 64% of the population vaccinated by Canada day. plus Health Canada might approve Johnson and Johnson vaccine this month, let's say, if everything goes well, it is possible to get 70% of the population vaccinated by July.
never expect 100% of the population can be vaccinated because there are at least 10% do not want to get a vaccine at all.
however, 70% is enough to protect Canada from covid already. so I believe that PM would declare that Canada is going back to normal this summer, maybe on Canada day or later.
by then, I believe IRCC would start new draws including FSWs, and they might finally start processing backlogged FSWs ( like me) maybe in the late Q3 or early Q4.
of course, what might mess up the schedule is the third wave of the covid pandemic., with the new varients and many provinces are reopening now, it is possible for Canada to experience another lockdown in March and April. but with the help of mass vaccination which has started, the third wave and lockdown would not last too long, I totally believe that Canadians can celebrate Canada day and enjoy summer this year.
guys, just stay positive and do your job now, everything is in God's hand.

Unfortunately, CIC decisions have been extremely illogical. Stopping FSW draws due to travel restrictions is completely asinine. For the first batch of CEC only draws, it made sense, becasue VACs outside of canada were all closed. But now they are largely open, albeit at a limited capacity. The fact that Canada has travel restrictions has absolutely no bearing on people outside of Canada who haven't reecived ITAs yet, since FSW applications are taking over a year to process anyway. I do hope FSW draws start soon, but outside of wasting mre money on a canadian degree, the pathways to residency seem to closing in Canada as well.

Note that Canada and Australia are the only two developed countries that offer direct residency. Everywhere else, you have to go on a work visa, and then apply for residency after a few years. And in most cases, you need to have a student visa to even have a shot at a work visa. Canada appears to be slowly shifting towards this as well. From Canada's ppoint of view, this makes perfect sense, as it incentivizes people to study in Canada, brining in more money. Any increase in competition will only ensure that the top percentile of students make it to Canada.

All that being said, I do hope that I am absolutely wrong about everything.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

you are absolutely right about everything you said. canada is switching to the buy-your-way-in style for immigration like aus and the others. thing is, they can't do it overnight. All the CECs are invited now, PNP is very little, what they have is FSWs as always. The economy is hurt badly due to covid so they just have to keep taking FSWs at least in 2021 and possibly 2022. It's all about the demographic of the FSW pool, which dominantly consists of people without canadian degrees or job offers. Even if they passed a law that says one must obtain a canadian degree or a job offer to get PR, it would take canada at least 2 years to get that money in. People won't immediately abort all their plans and spend all their money on canadian schools and the government knows it. However, the shift is real so prospective immigrants must be aware.

Well at least that's some 'good' news for current FSW candidates. Assuming our CRS scores are high enough, there's still a decent chance of getting an ITA by the summer. I'm not going to think about the additional 12-18 months processing time though...

 

[coolgal]

CEC is empty now. They will be moving forward with FSW soon.

I doubt FSW only. It may be inland applicant draws only with bumped up points for Canadian education and any work experience.(FSW-inland, CEC included as well)

 

[Adam Tsao]

Unfortunately, CIC decisions have been extremely illogical. Stopping FSW draws due to travel restrictions is completely asinine. For the first batch of CEC only draws, it made sense, becasue VACs outside of canada were all closed. But now they are largely open, albeit at a limited capacity. The fact that Canada has travel restrictions has absolutely no bearing on people outside of Canada who haven't reecived ITAs yet, since FSW applications are taking over a year to process anyway. I do hope FSW draws start soon, but outside of wasting mre money on a canadian degree, the pathways to residency seem to closing in Canada as well.

Note that Canada and Australia are the only two developed countries that offer direct residency. Everywhere else, you have to go on a work visa, and then apply for residency after a few years. And in most cases, you need to have a student visa to even have a shot at a work visa. Canada appears to be slowly shifting towards this as well. From Canada's ppoint of view, this makes perfect sense, as it incentivizes people to study in Canada, brining in more money. Any increase in competition will only ensure that the top percentile of students make it to Canada.

All that being said, I do hope that I am absolutely wrong about everything.

ircc does nothing logical for sure, my friend, otherwise they would not issue ITAs to all CECs, with the lowest crs is only 75! is that a skilled worker stream? maybe it is highly skillful to have a 75 crs....
my points are: 1. do not lose hope; 2. all i said are all based on the most optimistic senorio, we do not know what will happen next; 3. instead of worrying too much ( like me) we better just focus on what we can do now.

 

[coolgal]

Unfortunately, CIC decisions have been extremely illogical. Stopping FSW draws due to travel restrictions is completely asinine. For the first batch of CEC only draws, it made sense, becasue VACs outside of canada were all closed. But now they are largely open, albeit at a limited capacity. The fact that Canada has travel restrictions has absolutely no bearing on people outside of Canada who haven't reecived ITAs yet, since FSW applications are taking over a year to process anyway. I do hope FSW draws start soon, but outside of wasting mre money on a canadian degree, the pathways to residency seem to closing in Canada as well.

Note that Canada and Australia are the only two developed countries that offer direct residency. Everywhere else, you have to go on a work visa, and then apply for residency after a few years. And in most cases, you need to have a student visa to even have a shot at a work visa. Canada appears to be slowly shifting towards this as well. From Canada's ppoint of view, this makes perfect sense, as it incentivizes people to study in Canada, brining in more money. Any increase in competition will only ensure that the top percentile of students make it to Canada.

All that being said, I do hope that I am absolutely wrong about everything.

Canada's top ranked university is ranked 29th in the world. Canada can never attract top talent like U.S.or Germany for that matter. Also after moving, one realizes that there is a lot of hype surrounding immigrating here. Nothing great tbh.

Canada and Australia both have no choice but to offer direct residency because it is hard to attract top talent. Most students who choose Canada and Aus do so only because of the work permit and eventual transition to permanent residency as means to a perceived better way of life. Its not because the academics in the two countries are great, it's just to live in a first world country.

Lastly, Canadian and Aus universities even though they have high entry requirements for foreign students, they don't hold the same weight as their counterparts in other countries do.

Canada is not a back door entry into the U.S or the U.S job market. Also salaries in Canada are much lower and there is a lot of nepotism too.

The direct residency pathway will always be open to attract talent that is left.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Canada's top ranked university is ranked 29th in the world. Canada can never attract top talent like U.S.or Germany for that matter. Also after moving, one realizes that there is a lot of hype surrounding immigrating here. Nothing great tbh.

Canada and Australia both have no choice but to offer direct residency because it is hard to attract top talent. Most students who choose Canada and Aus do so only because of the work permit and eventual transition to permanent residency as means to a perceived better way of life. Its not because the academics in the two countries are great, it's just to live in a first world country.

Lastly, Canadian and Aus universities even though they have high entry requirements for foreign students, they don't hold the same weight as their counterparts in other countries do.

Canada is not a back door entry into the U.S or the U.S job market. Also salaries in Canada are much lower and there is a lot of nepotism too.

The direct residency pathway will always be open to attract talent that is left.

Literally all of that is irrelevant. Point is that there are enough people wanting to move to canada, and the qualifications required are going up. When there is such a high (and continuously increasing) demand for that, attempting to further incentivize foreign nationals to study in the country makes sense.

Sorry you haven't enjoyed living in Canada. Keep projecting though.

 

[coolgal]

Literally all of that is irrelevant. Point is that there are enough people wanting to move to canada, and the qualifications required are going up. When there is such a high (and continuously increasing) demand for that, attempting to further incentivize foreign nationals to study in the country makes sense.

Sorry you haven't enjoyed living in Canada. Keep projecting though.

It may be irrelevant to you. Lol. You seem to be in a hurry and are unhappy where you are. I feel for you. You clearly didn't like what was said. And you won't like the reality too.

Lot of unsuccessful U.S and EU applicants choose Canada and Aus as a third choice. For some, it's the first(people with no choice).

Which one are you ?

Many immigrants have come and gone home too.

 

[Andy Eddy]

It may be irrelevant to you. Lol. You seem to be in a hurry and are unhappy where you are. I feel for you. You clearly didn't like what was said. And you won't like the reality too.

Lot of unsuccessful U.S and EU applicants choose Canada and Aus as a third choice. For some, it's the first(people with no choice).

Which one are you ?

Many immigrants have come and gone home too.

Let there be peace in this world ^^

 

[apple121]

we will have to have a close look at the vaccination process in Canada, I believe that is the dominant factor of reopening the border.
with 3 available vaccines now, it is not hard to reach 64% of the population vaccinated by Canada day. plus Health Canada might approve Johnson and Johnson vaccine this month, let's say, if everything goes well, it is possible to get 70% of the population vaccinated by July.
never expect 100% of the population can be vaccinated because there are at least 10% do not want to get a vaccine at all.
however, 70% is enough to protect Canada from covid already. so I believe that PM would declare that Canada is going back to normal this summer, maybe on Canada day or later.
by then, I believe IRCC would start new draws including FSWs, and they might finally start processing backlogged FSWs ( like me) maybe in the late Q3 or early Q4.
of course, what might mess up the schedule is the third wave of the covid pandemic., with the new varients and many provinces are reopening now, it is possible for Canada to experience another lockdown in March and April. but with the help of mass vaccination which has started, the third wave and lockdown would not last too long, I totally believe that Canadians can celebrate Canada day and enjoy summer this year.
guys, just stay positive and do your job now, everything is in God's hand.

I believe the FSW draws will be sooner, Canada will also need more qualified immigrants to recover from COVID economic damages, but also the main reason for mass immigration in Canada are demographics, they need more young people.
The outland FSW are still processed, just with a limited capacity. Looking at your GCMS, it's possible that your application is in the last step and they don't approve it because you can't travel anyway at the moment.

 

[apple121]

Also salaries in Canada are much lower and there is a lot of nepotism too.
The direct residency pathway will always be open to attract talent that is left.

From what do you get that there is a lot of nepotism there ?

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

It may be irrelevant to you. Lol. You seem to be in a hurry and are unhappy where you are. I feel for you. You clearly didn't like what was said. And you won't like the reality too.

Lot of unsuccessful U.S and EU applicants choose Canada and Aus as a third choice. For some, it's the first(people with no choice).

Which one are you ?

Many immigrants have come and gone home too.

k