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Ray of Hope 68th Draw

pessacanada

Champion Member
May 5, 2017
1,190
3,099
Category........
FSW
Happy birthday! I am the first one to greet you in this thread so I am already invited next year! Your CRS is still higher than most of the active members here! ;) I hope we all get our ITAs soon so we can celebrate our birthdays in Canada next year! :)
You the best my dear friend, hope to see you too in Canada next year, we have a lot to do in Canada ))))))
 

CaRahul

Newbie
Jul 6, 2017
9
13
Hie there, as long as your works are in the category 0, A or B, you can combine all your work and should get a reference letters for each according to the requirement of CIC. Hope your CRS would rise higher so that you will be invited next round, all the best to you!
May everyone here get an ITA soon and we celebrate our parties in Canada in 2018. :)

PS: It's my birthday today (32) but not sad, in my application I already changed the principal applicant (CRS 416) ;) Hope I invite you guys to my birthday next year in Canada ;):)
First of all. Happy Birthday. I hope you are having a good time. The only thing I am worried about is the less than a year experience as an intern and people suggesting me that I might get banned for using it to claim work experience If I get an ITA as this is subjected to misinterpretation. However, your comment comes as a most positive thing I heard this week :D

Thanks again for replying and I hope to attend your next Bday Party in Canada!
 
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iamxty

Champion Member
Mar 13, 2017
2,341
4,309
Singapore
Category........
PNP
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
09-07-2017
Nomination.....
01-08-2017
AOR Received.
07-09-2017
File Transfer...
04-11-2017
Passport Req..
08-03-2018
Oh no, you remember about the POF :DIt is monsoon season here so he must be planting his crops :p
Oh crap! What kind of crop? @xibalban must be praying to all the Himalayan deities for a miracle to happen for all of us! ;):D

By the way, are you still sitting for the IELTS next week? All the best to you :)
 

Wandering Mind

Champion Member
Mar 20, 2017
2,832
4,719
I second that. I used to be a heavy drinker and to some extent life of a party. Then all of the sudden i stopped drinking and it stayed like that for nearly 3 years until last Christmas eve. My friends were not impressed at all. I used to go to clubs and drink non-alcoholic beer and they were like, omg unbelievable! :eek: They tried everything they could to make me drink again lol.
Ha ha ha. You've great friends! :D
 

Wandering Mind

Champion Member
Mar 20, 2017
2,832
4,719
Hie there, as long as your works are in the category 0, A or B, you can combine all your work and should get a reference letters for each according to the requirement of CIC. Hope your CRS would rise higher so that you will be invited next round, all the best to you!
May everyone here get an ITA soon and we celebrate our parties in Canada in 2018. :)

PS: It's my birthday today (32) but not sad, in my application I already changed the principal applicant (CRS 416) ;) Hope I invite you guys to my birthday next year in Canada ;):)
Enjoy your day! Hope the year ahead is full of happiness and success and everything else your heart desires.
 

iamxty

Champion Member
Mar 13, 2017
2,341
4,309
Singapore
Category........
PNP
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
09-07-2017
Nomination.....
01-08-2017
AOR Received.
07-09-2017
File Transfer...
04-11-2017
Passport Req..
08-03-2018
Hi Guys,

I am currently at 416 points after creating my profile in EE . Can you guide me regarding the following situation.

I have multiple work experience across different NOCs. 2years 1 month in 0124, then 5 months again in 0124(different employee) and 9 months as Paid Intern(full time/ 45 hours per week) in 4163. I am currently claiming points for 2 years work exp only hence the score 416. Can i add up all these work experience and claim full points of 3 yr experience? 3 yr exp will boost my CRS to 441. I will choose my primary NOC as 0124

I would really appreciate some expert opinion on this.
Yes, you can combine all your work experience. For the primary NOC, the requirement must be one year continuous.
 
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KingKurly

Champion Member
Jan 25, 2017
1,083
2,217
Kathmandu
Category........
NOC Code......
4033
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
Hie there, as long as your works are in the category 0, A or B, you can combine all your work and should get a reference letters for each according to the requirement of CIC. Hope your CRS would rise higher so that you will be invited next round, all the best to you!
May everyone here get an ITA soon and we celebrate our parties in Canada in 2018. :)

PS: It's my birthday today (32) but not sad, in my application I already changed the principal applicant (CRS 416) ;) Hope I invite you guys to my birthday next year in Canada ;):)
Happy Birthday mate :) You know how to cover yourself eh! Pretty smart ;)
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon. :)
I guess your averages calculated for some ranges are daily averages and the others are weekly averages.

For example, 601-1200 had 199 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 199/8 = approx 25 which means a weekly average of 175 (25*7). Not sure how you got 30.

Another example, 451-600 had 764 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 764/8 = approx 96 which means a weekly average of 672 (96*7). Not sure how you got 110.
 

KingKurly

Champion Member
Jan 25, 2017
1,083
2,217
Kathmandu
Category........
NOC Code......
4033
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
Oh crap! What kind of crop? @xibalban must be praying to all the Himalayan deities for a miracle to happen for all of us! ;):D

By the way, are you still sitting for the IELTS next week? All the best to you :)
I don't know! As i keep reading weed is very much acceptable in Canada, so he must be planting weed and stuff hahaha. I still haven't booked IELTS test date yet, but there is still time. I still haven't dedicated as much time in practice as much as i should. Like yesterday i didn't go to work and spent all evening watching Formula 1 and the Wimbledon final. But oh boy, what a Sunday it was. Couldn't have asked more. Next Friday we have a public holiday, so i will take couple of days off before that so i will have 3 days off. So yes i will be sitting for IELTS and thank you for your best wishes :)
 

iamxty

Champion Member
Mar 13, 2017
2,341
4,309
Singapore
Category........
PNP
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
09-07-2017
Nomination.....
01-08-2017
AOR Received.
07-09-2017
File Transfer...
04-11-2017
Passport Req..
08-03-2018
I guess your averages calculated for some ranges are daily averages and the others are weekly averages.

For example, 601-1200 had 199 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 199/8 = approx 25 which means a weekly average of 175 (25*7). Not sure how you got 30.

Another example, 451-600 had 764 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 764/8 = approx 96 which means a weekly average of 672 (96*7). Not sure how you got 110.
He used 7 (days) as divisor, not 8. Then rounded up.