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Ray of Hope - 155th Draw

Jo1984

Star Member
Jun 4, 2020
158
98
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
1123
FINALLY!!!! After a looooong wait since March, I got ITA today with 530 points!
But I’m still worried whether or not my documents will be all accepted without any mistakes... So wish me luck
Yes, feels like the hard work is just starting. Good luck to everyone!!
 

NikSharma01

Champion Member
Jan 3, 2019
1,624
1,209
471-4804,561
461-4707,468
451-4608,191

It will be 470-480 era for the rest of 2020

probably few draw with high 460s

451-460 kiss good bye
Your claims have always been falsified by the CIC/or positivity and the same will happen this time too!
Dear,

Stop spreading negativity on this forum. To be honest, you are not from Canadian Immigration who gets to decide which score will be the cutoff for next draw. It's stupid to say so. Everyone on this forum is educated enough to look at some basic statistics to see and understand what chance do they stand.

To clarify, IELTS testing in USA has not resumed and looking at current conditions here, it won't resume anytime sooner. Hopefully by September if things get better in August. Unlike other countries, USA doesn't have Computerized IELTS testing and it's all paper based which makes it very hard for them to open testing as it involves face to face conversation for the speaking test. This will be like a suicide for the examiners to having have to interact with so many people on any testing day.

Majority of the high scoring candidates with scores ranging 470+ are either from US or inland. They hold masters degree or Canadian masters + Work experience. I don't think majority of candidates from India or any other countries will have masters and hence high score ranges. With this being said, yes, there is a big pool of people waiting desperately in the USA to move to Canada due to Trump's anti immigration policy and several EO's. H1b's and OPT's here are fed up and the job market is very tough when you are on a visa here. So, as soon as IELTS in USA opens, things will heat up pushing the scores higher. Again in 470-480's range not more or higher than that. Just like the case before the pandemic.

Given USA has not resumed IELTS and there is very little chance for people here to enter the pool or to improve their score in next 2 months, the scores will continue to drop. It's not like people from USA can go to other countries to give exam. All borders are closed. People are worried to cross the US border even if they have a chance since the immigration might not let them back in on return. There won't be big influx of Candidates from Canada (CEC) applicants either in next 2 months either given express entry never stopped for them. They have been constantly flushed out from the pool with back to back CEC draws.
I am now looking at scores to go to low 455's if things remain the same until September (Which I am very hopeful about). But definitely up if things resume in USA. So, given this reasoning scores will drop to 469 ~ 470's in next draw, 465 ~ 470's in August 1st draw and 460 ~ 465 in August 2nd draw if this trend continues.

When you talk something negative, atleast give proper reasoning and just don't write everything just because you felt like it
Dear, no need to pay attention to his posts. He is lacking knowledge regarding Canadian Immigration. You will find such people everywhere in your life. Learn to ignore them. Don't let your hopes down. Good luck to you and everybody here! :)
 

Akskhu

Full Member
Jun 20, 2020
38
43
My Prediction -
Assuming we see another FSW draw on 22nd July, the current pool size is 3750+ with CRS 470+, and with a similar influx of candidates as the last 15 days, Approx 1000 will be added in this pool of 470+ CRS.

So if there is a draw with 3900 invitations like this one, I'm assuming the Draw will be at 473-476 on 22nd July.


What do you guys think?
 
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NikSharma01

Champion Member
Jan 3, 2019
1,624
1,209
I believe it will touch 467 in the next 4 draws. But some people are graduating this summer and American people H1Bs will have their Wes ready in few months . Score might go up again
For a while, the score would remain above 470. We should expect it to get plummeted to the 460s towards the end of this year.
 
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AverageIndianGuy

Star Member
Apr 10, 2020
197
239
Hi all,
Just a common question,
I hve 3+ years of exp in past 6 years. But, there is a gap of 1.5 years when i was working with our family business. It doesn't come under any NOC code and i am not included it while calculating crs or creating profile.
Now, is it ok to have a gap in my career or should i show this period somewhere?
 

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
My Prediction -
Assuming we see another FSW draw on 22nd July, the current pool size is 3750+ with CRS 470+, and with a similar influx of candidates as the last 15 days, Approx 1000 will be added in this pool of 470+ CRS.

So if there is a draw with 3900 invitations like this one, I'm assuming the Draw will be at 473-476 on 22nd July.


What do you guys think?
Yep, I'm modelling my predictions with similar numbers.
As of July 6th, the pool had 3,756 candidates (considering 3,900 are out now).
From the previous draw to June 6th, the 470+ range increased by around 800 candidates.
Yet, I do expect that from now on the rate of new candidates will slowly start to increase, draw after draw. So, I would work with a +500 increase every 2 weeks as a *conservative* guess.
Remember: before the PNP/CEC phase, the rate of new candidates entering the pool was always around 250-280 candidates/day in the 471+ range. Now, we're considering a rate of ~ 95 candidates/day for the July 22nd. I really don't think I'm being pessimist here. To be quite honest, I won't be chocked if on the next draw we already see a rate of 150-200 candidates/day entering the pool. IELTS are pretty much back to normal, besides US. The only factor limiting here is WES, which no one knows exactly how fast is processing new requests.

Therefore, under these predictions (+500 candidates each 14 days, on top of the previous week trend), the scenario looks like this:

22nd July: 3756 + 800 + 500 = 5056 candidates with 471+
5th August: 5056 - 3900 + 800 + 2*500 = 2956 candidates
19th August: 2956 -3900 + 800 + 3*500 = 1356 candidates
2nd September: 1356 - 3900 + 800 + 4*500 = 256 candidates
16th September: 256 - 3900 + 800 + 5*500 = -344 candidates (therefore, here we would start to touch on 469-470)

Between the 2nd Sept and 16th Sept we would probably reach the "normal" level of candidates entering the pool, I mean: we would hit the plateau of the cutoff, after that, IRCC would probably stop inviting 3900 candidates (if not earlier!), or otherwise they'll will reach their annual target WAYYY before December. So, unless WES *really* doesn't deliver ECAs at a normal rate by September (which seems really unlikely to me), I wouldn't count on scores hitting anywhere close to 465 or below.
 
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13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,566
3,162
Canada
Hi all,
Just a common question,
I hve 3+ years of exp in past 6 years. But, there is a gap of 1.5 years when i was working with our family business. It doesn't come under any NOC code and i am not included it while calculating crs or creating profile.
Now, is it ok to have a gap in my career or should i show this period somewhere?
Show it as unemployed in personal history, no issues.
 

Tarun1306

Star Member
Oct 13, 2019
66
2
Hey guys ... keenly following this thread
Currentlx my CRS is 462...any chances for cut off dropping to this level before October ...will be losing 5 points for age in October..
 

Mak101

Full Member
Jan 23, 2020
27
2
Yep, I'm modelling my predictions with similar numbers.
As of July 6th, the pool had 3,756 candidates (considering 3,900 are out now).
From the previous draw to June 6th, the 470+ range increased by around 800 candidates.
Yet, I do expect that from now on the rate of new candidates will slowly start to increase, draw after draw. So, I would work with a +500 increase every 2 weeks as a *conservative* guess.
Remember: before the PNP/CEC phase, the rate of new candidates entering the pool was always around 250-280 candidates/day in the 471+ range. Now, we're considering a rate of ~ 95 candidates/day for the July 22nd. I really don't think I'm being pessimist here. To be quite honest, I won't be chocked if on the next draw we already see a rate of 150-200 candidates/day entering the pool. IELTS are pretty much back to normal, besides US. The only factor limiting here is WES, which no one knows exactly how fast is processing new requests.

Therefore, under these predictions (+500 candidates each 14 days, on top of the previous week trend), the scenario looks like this:

22nd July: 3756 + 800 + 500 = 5056 candidates with 471+
5th August: 5056 - 3900 + 800 + 2*500 = 2956 candidates
19th August: 2956 -3900 + 800 + 3*500 = 1356 candidates
2nd September: 1356 - 3900 + 800 + 4*500 = 256 candidates
16th September: 256 - 3900 + 800 + 5*500 = -344 candidates (therefore, here we would start to touch on 469-470)

Between the 2nd Sept and 16th Sept we would probably reach the "normal" level of candidates entering the pool, I mean: we would hit the plateau of the cutoff, after that, IRCC would probably stop inviting 3900 candidates (if not earlier!), or otherwise they'll will reach their annual target WAYYY before December. So, unless WES *really* doesn't deliver ECAs at a normal rate by September (which seems really unlikely to me), I wouldn't count on scores hitting anywhere close to 465 or below.
I also crunched numbers and got similar results. But a BIG randomness is number of candidates entering pool with 471+ & if IRCC only has only a FST Only Draw or not in place of an all program draw.

If 470+ candidates enter pool @ 2k-2.5K per 15 days and we continue to have to have FSW draws then following is my prediction based on available data & above assumptions :

22nd July Draw Cutoff 474-476
5th Aug Draw Cutoff 470-472

Cant say anything for later draws.
 

aj534160

Hero Member
Apr 13, 2019
491
484
Dear,

Stop spreading negativity on this forum. To be honest, you are not from Canadian Immigration who gets to decide which score will be the cutoff for next draw. It's stupid to say so. Everyone on this forum is educated enough to look at some basic statistics to see and understand what chance do they stand.

To clarify, IELTS testing in USA has not resumed and looking at current conditions here, it won't resume anytime sooner. Hopefully by September if things get better in August. Unlike other countries, USA doesn't have Computerized IELTS testing and it's all paper based which makes it very hard for them to open testing as it involves face to face conversation for the speaking test. This will be like a suicide for the examiners to having have to interact with so many people on any testing day.

Majority of the high scoring candidates with scores ranging 470+ are either from US or inland. They hold masters degree or Canadian masters + Work experience. I don't think majority of candidates from India or any other countries will have masters and hence high score ranges. With this being said, yes, there is a big pool of people waiting desperately in the USA to move to Canada due to Trump's anti immigration policy and several EO's. H1b's and OPT's here are fed up and the job market is very tough when you are on a visa here. So, as soon as IELTS in USA opens, things will heat up pushing the scores higher. Again in 470-480's range not more or higher than that. Just like the case before the pandemic.

Given USA has not resumed IELTS and there is very little chance for people here to enter the pool or to improve their score in next 2 months, the scores will continue to drop. It's not like people from USA can go to other countries to give exam. All borders are closed. People are worried to cross the US border even if they have a chance since the immigration might not let them back in on return. There won't be big influx of Candidates from Canada (CEC) applicants either in next 2 months either given express entry never stopped for them. They have been constantly flushed out from the pool with back to back CEC draws.
I am now looking at scores to go to low 455's if things remain the same until September (Which I am very hopeful about). But definitely up if things resume in USA. So, given this reasoning scores will drop to 469 ~ 470's in next draw, 465 ~ 470's in August 1st draw and 460 ~ 465 in August 2nd draw if this trend continues.

When you talk something negative, atleast give proper reasoning and just don't write everything just because you felt like it
You are to the point. Wierd Dudes here with baseless explanations keep saying score will shoot up despite the fact that IELTS is not happening (very very few computer based ones and ECA almost to a standstill).
So I second your thought. If they constantly send out 3.9k invites every fortnight, score can drop to 450 as well
Logically, there are around 16 k candidates (after yesterday's draw) and 4 consistent draws are enough to pull down the CRS. Only by September everything can come normal in full swing.
By that time people above 450 would be flushed from pool for sure
The only clause is they should keep inviting every fortnight
If that's happening, 450 and above will be kissed with an ITA for sure
But yes, by Oct, score will undoubtedly shoot up
Hit like you agree with my opinion
 

crs450

Newbie
Jul 9, 2020
5
0
You are to the point. Wierd Dudes here with baseless explanations keep saying score will shoot up despite the fact that IELTS is not happening (very very few computer based ones and ECA almost to a standstill).
So I second your thought. If they constantly send out 3.9k invites every fortnight, score can drop to 450 as well
Logically, there are around 16 k candidates (after yesterday's draw) and 4 consistent draws are enough to pull down the CRS. Only by September everything can come normal in full swing.
By that time people above 450 would be flushed from pool for sure
The only clause is they should keep inviting every fortnight
If that's happening, 450 and above will be kissed with an ITA for sure
But yes, by Oct, score will undoubtedly shoot up
Hit like you agree with my opinion
I hope this happens... thanks for your explanations
 

aj534160

Hero Member
Apr 13, 2019
491
484
I also crunched numbers and got similar results. But a BIG randomness is number of candidates entering pool with 471+ & if IRCC only has only a FST Only Draw or not in place of an all program draw.

If 470+ candidates enter pool @ 2k-2.5K per 15 days and we continue to have to have FSW draws then following is my prediction based on available data & above assumptions :

22nd July Draw Cutoff 474-476
5th Aug Draw Cutoff 470-472

Cant say anything for later draws.
I bet you that by August, the cut-off would have dropped to 465. Not everyone can get into the pool as it was before. IELTS is not back in full swing. Many are stranded, cannot write CD IELTS, cannot travel to IELTS location as it was before, not everyone writing the general module and not everyone will be blessed with 8777.
2,5K per15 days is close to the pre-covid timeframe
Unless Indian universities send electronic transcripts, dudes cannot have their transcripts sent for easy processing. WES and CES will accept only if Universities send them the transcripts. I'm from Chennai and I have friends in TamilNadu, Karnataka, Andhra, and Maharastra. Many went to the universities of respective states and none of them were able to send their transcripts to ECA bodies. Although transcripts requests are accepted (minimum it takes around 30 days to get the transcript alone) and after that, it just remains in the university dispatch section waiting for Speed Post to resume In-university services. Honestly, universities have even more work to do than sending transcripts to ECA bodies.
Some physical transcripts that have reached WES or CES' office are being kept in the reception and will be worked on only when staff come to office (September end).
Plus, down south, IELTS CD tests are available in Bangalore and Hyd. Now Karnataka has gone into full lockdown. Not many are willing to write CD IELTS. Most states are into lockdown in India.
Situation in US is damn terrible
So once again, cut-off will drop to a good extent. That's my bet
2.5k candidates joining is a way too high estimation mate.