Ray of Hope - 128th Draw

[ielts-is-a-crime]

@ielts-is-a-crime are you an international student??

Nope I am not why?

 

[greeshma_aju]

As of August 30, there were a total of 119,042 candidates in the Express Entry pool.
451-1200 - 7221

As of September 13, there were a total of 121,278 candidates in the Express Entry pool.
451-1200 - 8622

As of September 27, there were a total of 123,423 candidates in the Express Entry pool.
451-1200 - 9525

Steep increase for the last 3 draws. What is happening ? Is these profiles are for real ?

 

[Mustafa Ghias]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 2, 2019 11:20 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 3): | Woqi114: 463 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 72) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Manishprasher: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 59) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Thanks a TON!

 

[Priyanka2010]

Over the past several months plenty of people have made their predictions about the CRS decreasing. As we have seen, the general CRS trend is in an upward direction. Yet the people who promote the idea of the CRS decreasing continue to be praised while people have stated that the CRS will continue to increase have been attacked as being "negative".

The pragmatic approach would be to maximise your CRS. Retake the IELTS if you need to, apply to relevant PNPs, and continue to job hunt. Oh, and please ignore the false hope prophets...

Agree with you.. I was also in the 'hopeful' boat and was even upset with my bro when he said CRS will not drop and will continue increasing but yesterday's draw is an eye opener.

 

[Caroline Wanjiru]

Please help me guys

 

[Jasmine172]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 2, 2019 11:20 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 3): | Woqi114: 463 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 72) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Manishprasher: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 59) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Please count me in with 454 score!

 

[Naxwell]

Agree with you.. I was also in the 'hopeful' boat and was even upset with my bro when he said CRS will not drop and will continue increasing but yesterday's draw is an eye opener.

No need to panic and be impatient. Lets assume their are atill 2500 pnp candidates (August 997 and 1000+ OINP, plus other pronvinces PNP) left to receive or have received but didnt get their 600points quickly yesterday, Also with the a likely FST draw coming up soon. The ponts will still remain at 460+ till last draw in November.

So December, January and February draws should favour people in upper and mid brackets of 450s

Those that should panic now are those below 450 and 450-451.

 

[cdddelhi]

Hello experts

Any chance for 461 . Birthday approching on December 25 .please shed some light

 

[ns317]

I am at 461...shall I retake ielts or wait for one more draw??

460 here (once WES confirms my wife's degrees next week and I enter the pool), and losing 5 points on November 25th. My plan is to wait till the November 13th draw, and then take IELTS again (I have 3 points more to gain in IELTS). That might open up another window in December/January.

 

[ns317]

Alright. With all the talk about B2B Draw this year in addition to expected December B2B what are the chances. So being an accountant a numbers guy I decided to forecast if it is possible that CIC might conduct a surprise B2B draw?. Below is my analysis.

So, let start with how many invitations will be issued in 2019 with routine draw:

• 67,300 (Invitations issued so far) + 3900*6 (assuming no B2B) = 90,700
• So, this means that CIC will be issuing 9,300 in excess of their target of 81.400.

Last Year Scenario of Target vs Invitations issued:

• last year target was 74,900 invitations issued where 89,800. invitations in excess of the target were 14,900. To cover for rejections, wasted ITA due to fake profiles etc.

Predicting possibility of a B2B:

• Possibility 1: Assuming that CIC plans to issue 14,900 invitations in excess of targeted like last year. This would mean 5200 more ITAs in addition to regular draws. Assuming that there is FST Draw with 600 invitation and 600 PNP Only draw. Historically this has happened with one FST Draw in 2018 this happened in May 2018. This would mean 4000 more invitations to be given. So there is possibility of 3,900 more invitations to make up that number. Probability of this happening seems remote.
• Possibility 2: Assuming 94,000 is the targeted ITA for this year. This would mean a B2B draw with 3300. Probability of this happening seems possible.

Keep your fingers crossed. Although there is no need for a B2B draw but there is a possibility for it happening.

Was thinking along exactly these lines yesterday.. The problem is that we don't really know why they went for those extra 14,900 invitations last year. If it is indeed to account for wastage, I'm pretty sure we'll see at least another 15K invites this year as well. Which definitely means a B2B draw as you outlined. Let's see.

Is there any stat available anywhere of the actual number of PRs confirmed in 2019 till date? That would give us an idea of how their wastage calculation went.

 

[Owen Takudzwa]

Let me also add that this is the season where fresh graduates from Canadian colleges enter the pool. The spike in crs score is expected. If you look at the 2018 draws, a spike of 4 points happened on the 3rd of October despite numbers of ITAs issued was increased from 3500 to 3900. I think we should remain calm and look at the next draw to have a clearer picture of things to come.

I've also been trying to look at the CRS scores over the past years in order to assess any seasonal trends. They don't seem to be very apparent. Reason, though, tells me that there should be seasons when a lot of people graduate from universities thus temporarily pushing cut off points upwards. I really wonder how this trend will end.

 

[Owen Takudzwa]

Ja, can totally understand your feeling.

The ranking system really sucks man. It is NOT we are not good - i think i am an excellent person, same are you. But life is full of unfairness, not limited to authoritarian countries.

But no matter how the world sucks, we have no choice but try our best to get a better life, no matter whatever it takes.

We have no courage to commit suicide, then live on and fight!

A thousand likes for you. I have 438 CRS score and I'm working on another post graduate qualification. Recent cut off points have been discouraging but we will fight to the last. God will have His way.

 

[VKA]

I have a question - How many points does a spouse contribute in CRS score.
In my case, I am sitting now at 456 points with IELTS { L-9;R-9;W-7;S-7.5}, similarly, my wife’s IELTS { L-8.5;R-7.5;W-6.5;S-8.5}. I want to ask - If my spouse also scores 7 in writing, how many more points would I be jumping from 456, which is my current score.
Any views on this ?

 

[EnthuChap]

stop predicting. you are not good at it.

Mate....u r more a loose cannon than @13nitinsharma could ever be!

Nope. I have only 459. I got no foreign education and experience. I came to Canada after my high school to study here when I was 18 years old.

U will get through with 459 this year itself.

 

[EnthuChap]

Alright. With all the talk about B2B Draw this year in addition to expected December B2B what are the chances. So being an accountant a numbers guy I decided to forecast if it is possible that CIC might conduct a surprise B2B draw?. Below is my analysis.

So, let start with how many invitations will be issued in 2019 with routine draw:

• 67,300 (Invitations issued so far) + 3900*6 (assuming no B2B) = 90,700
• So, this means that CIC will be issuing 9,300 in excess of their target of 81.400.

Last Year Scenario of Target vs Invitations issued:

• last year target was 74,900 invitations issued where 89,800. invitations in excess of the target were 14,900. To cover for rejections, wasted ITA due to fake profiles etc.

Predicting possibility of a B2B:

• Possibility 1: Assuming that CIC plans to issue 14,900 invitations in excess of targeted like last year. This would mean 5200 more ITAs in addition to regular draws. Assuming that there is FST Draw with 600 invitation and 600 PNP Only draw. Historically this has happened with one FST Draw in 2018 this happened in May 2018. This would mean 4000 more invitations to be given. So there is possibility of 3,900 more invitations to make up that number. Probability of this happening seems remote.
• Possibility 2: Assuming 94,000 is the targeted ITA for this year. This would mean a B2B draw with 3300. Probability of this happening seems possible.

Keep your fingers crossed. Although there is no need for a B2B draw but there is a possibility for it happening.

Fully agree with u here. I know there may be fire 'balls' thrown at u for saying this, but it is a clear possibility.