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Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

JC147

Newbie
Sep 4, 2019
3
5
Yeah, for accountant specifically, fresh grad of bachelor degree candidates won't even get invitation even if they have superior IELTS. Unless they have studied in regional area, have 1 year Australian experience, professional year and CCL language.

You guys might benefitted if you are single with new point system in November though..
I wouldn't expect too much tho.. AU system is even more unpredictable.. :(
 

jackdawn

Champion Member
Dec 24, 2016
1,292
920
As far as i understand the express entry system is not controlled by cic except for the number of invitations, that too based on the load they have and the backlogs they have against their target of intake. The entire process is dynamic and the crs depends on the number of people joining with dynamic and competent capabilities. More and more people with competitive age, education and work experience, marital status, spouse credentials (in case of married) joining the pool will influence the scores and vice versa. The number of days between the draws will also effect the score since the new entrants to the pool during this period will swell and if the candidates are of high scores the more the score. Out of all the more than 50 programs canada has, fsw has the highest quota since the number of applicants through this stream is so high and has been increasing and hence the increase in scores.

Government immigration and visa policies in major immigration destination countries is also effecting this score, as people look up to Canada as their new destination.

These is always a way out, just be persistent with your efforts.

Good luck to all hoping to make it next.
 

tharibak

Member
Jun 4, 2019
15
1
PLEASE HELP!!!
with this trend my husband is planning to apply alone. Therefore after he is getting the PR how long it takes get the PR for the spouse
 

SolwayFirth

Full Member
Sep 4, 2019
49
67
Australia
Yeah, for accountant specifically, fresh grad of bachelor degree candidates won't even get invitation even if they have superior IELTS. Unless they have studied in regional area, have 1 year Australian experience, professional year and CCL language.

You guys might benefitted if you are single with new point system in November though..
Sadly I am not that positive about Australian PR tbh. Even doing all of those don't get you any closer. Australian's are anti-immigration on a good day as it is; and we are way past the golden era of immigration in Australia. There are a lot of policies & steps taken to lock in newly granted PR holders to regional areas. & as you would expect not many people are ready to take the route of working on farms, milking cows for the foreseeable future.
 

daksh1803

Full Member
Jul 22, 2019
26
15
Hey Guys, my current crs is 456 & I have OINP invite since 15th August, I am in the process of collecting documents. I was hoping to wait till 25th September to submit my application. Now, cut off soaring again I am thinking to submit it ASAP, now my question is if I submit my application and cut off drops below 456 then will I still be eligible for ITA?

Anyone else in the same boat?
Exactly the same score and noi of the same date. I am submitting my noi application this weekend.
And yes you can still get an ITA.
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Agreed, in ROH 124 itself seen 6-7 people jumped from 450+ to 460+
Yes. Strongly agree.

I am so disappointed with the newest CSR score. I just cannot believe how the score could just go up back to 460+ after a 2-week gap.

On 30 Aug, there were only 395 people above 601, let's assume 600 people above 601 when the draw happened.
and 7500 people between 451-600.

After the draw, 600 + 3000, so there are approximately 4500 people who have a score between 451 and 463 left in the pool. Is it possible? ONLY 4500 people? I don't believe it...

Anyway, just feel disappointed, and the score looks a bit suspicious to me.

If I have to do my calculation again for 4th Sept CRS cut off estimation with the method I use now and without the information of 30th August CRs distribution in the pool, we can see that there was a huge number of candidates who were sitting at 450+ improved their score to 460+.

That can be seen in the comparison of CRS score distribution pool on 15th Aug and 30th Aug in 441-450 score range where there were not many candidates. The 451-458 range were decreasing fast and moved up to 461+ range as seen after 12th August draw pool distribution (7,355) compare to 15th Aug CRS pool (7,038). 7,038-7,366 = -317. Some of those who were taken off the range 451-600 might be those who received PNP nominations and improvement in IELTS score as well as work experience. Some might have decrease in score because of age factor,too.


After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 =
7,355 (9,961- 2,606)
441-450 =8,021



August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084



It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:
601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 = -106prof/day(7,038-7,355=-317/3)
441-450 =21prof/day (8,084-8,021=63/3)

As it os impossible to have minus figure in the range of 451-600, I will use previous 314 profile/day instead to calculate the profile added after 15 Aug to 20 Aug


So, by 20th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =337 (127+210(42x5days)
451-600 =8,608(7,038+1,570(314x5days))
441-450 = 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))


After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.


So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))


Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4th Sep, it will be distributed equally through 451-484 to 600 ( our own CRS internal tracker manage by
@Angel1113 listed someone who have score of 484 in the range of 451-600) so I will use that as a highest in the range of 451-600. Therefore, it makes 4710/34=138 profile per score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 463-464
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-138 (of 138 of 484-600score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 483score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 482score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 481score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 480score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 479score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 478score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 477score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 476score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 475score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 474score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 473score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 472score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 471score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 470score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 469score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 468score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 467score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 466score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 465score newly added)
-138(of 138 of 464score newly added)
-72(of 138 of 463score newly added)


As you can see, out of 4,710 newly added profiles more than 3,000 profiles are having 461+ score. Together with the high PNP nominations (630) approved before the draw, with only 3,600 ITAs issued, it made sense that the cut off score went up again.
 
Last edited:

daksh1803

Full Member
Jul 22, 2019
26
15
You would be getting 45 days to submit your Application to OINP after NOI. Then it takes 30 to 60 days processing time for your Application to be approved by Ontario government. Further, you get 30 days from the time of approval to accept or decline the OINP Nomination.Once you accept it,you would no longer be eligible under Federal Skilled Worker Scheme.You will be locked by province if you accept the nomination. By the mean time if score comes down before your acceptance you can withdraw PNP and go with FSW. Plan accordingly.
Not true. Once a person accepts nomination, they are again back in the pool with additional 600 points and ITA in the next draw post nomination.
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Sadly I am not that positive about Australian PR tbh. Even doing all of those don't get you any closer. Australian's are anti-immigration on a good day as it is; and we are way past the golden era of immigration in Australia. There are a lot of policies & steps taken to lock in newly granted PR holders to regional areas. & as you would expect not many people are ready to take the route of working on farms, milking cows for the foreseeable future.
Yeah. I guess there won't be much or even close to none employment opportunity for accountant in regional areas.
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,566
3,162
Canada
Dear friends

My journey was started in November 2017.in 2018 our crs was 417 then got eca report from wes it was two or more then score increased to 444 . Then again documents sent to ces spent 50 k again (paid for rush service)got master Equallency in may 2019 score increased to 451 . But again it was not sufficient. Again ielts by secondary applicant got the result on 30 aug score increased to 455.last draw was 457 . I was so confident score will come down to 455 . But this Wednesday again cut off is 463 . My dreams are shattered. Personal life professional life is like hell. Birthday approaching on December 25 . Feeling demotivated. Have given everything to this journey. Luck is playing with me from day one. Now I am feeling it's end of road for me don't know what to do
Congratulations to all winners . Good luck to rest of the members
I understand your pain my friend, and can relate all this with so many applicants here who're striving for ITA since beginning of this year. Trust me, I was also part of this journey and you guys know that.

You know what, you've absolutely done a GREAT job if I look at your journey so far. 455 is a very good score and now, don't become sad at this stage. Undoubtedly, this is a temporary phase, and shall too pass for sure. Like I said earlier, you'll see all type of people around you with different mindsets around you - shouting, screaming, praising, demotivating, dragging, irritating, frustrating, motivating (trust me, list may go on & on). But, at the end, what really matters is - how well you deal with these people in all such situations? It's a game of patience and of course, your attitude towards these draw.

Once 3,900 ITAs are set, then you'll see how quickly it may touch 450 below scores too. As I always say, Q3 and Q4 will change the whole game with increased ITAs and significant drop in upcoming scores.

Stay strong ALWAYS and hope for the best. BELIEVE IN YOURSELF, BELIEVE IN GOD :)

REMEMBER THAT IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL YOU WIN !
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Yeah.. I already have a positive equivalency for my AU Masters.. But I decided to stay back here and work on my Canadian PR as this way I can earn quite a bit more money.. Every little bit helps when you're moving to another country
That's true. All the best dear...Hope we all can reach Canada soon and have meet and greet. Haha :D