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Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Dheana90 said:
Let's estimate the CRS distribution pool and cut off score based on this our own internal tracker and previous CRS data.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 464 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/14=148profile/score. Based on our internal tracker, we have also 5 people having 1000+ score. Let's multiple that by 100= 500 but I will still use 560 for this estimation.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 458-459
3,600 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-148 (of 464-600 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-148 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-148(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-148 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-148 (of 460score newly added)
-380 (of 4561 of 459 left after 4 Sep draw)
-148 (of 459 newly added score)
-252 (of 380 of 4561 of 458 left after 4Sep draw)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 457-458.
3,900 minus:
560(601-1200)
-148 (of 464-600 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-148 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-148(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-148 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-148 (of 460score newly added)
-380 (of 4561 of 459 left after 4 Sep draw)
-148 (of 459 newly added score)
-380 ( of 4561 of 458 left after 4Sep draw)
-148 (of 458 newly added score)
-24 (of 380 of 4,561 of 457 left after 4 Sep)
Click to expand...
Ok. As we have a new 1000+ and 472 in our internal tracker, I will do the calculation again

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 472 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/22=94profile/score. Based on our internal tracker, we have also 7 people having 1000+ score. Let's multiple that by 100= 700


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460score newly added)
-158 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)
-94 (of 459 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4,561 of 458 left after 4 Sep)
-78 (of 458 newly added score)
 
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F

Fodrigo

Star Member
May 29, 2017
64
2
hiiphy said:
Hello, Its left for you to decide, move up to 462 and wait 12 to 14month after PR to move her to CANADA or wait for few draws for ITA to drop to 457 and move as a family. Whatever you decide let the choice be yours
Click to expand...
12 to 14 months? I thought that you only need 3 months of PR to sponsor your spouse
 
C

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
429
126
Dheana90 said:
Ok. As we have a new 1000+ and 472 in our internal tracker, I will do the calculation again

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 472 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/22=94profile/score. Based on our internal tracker, we have also 7 people having 1000+ score. Let's multiple that by 100= 700


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460score newly added)
-158 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)
-94 (of 459 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4,561 of 458 left after 4 Sep)
-78 (of 458 newly added score)
Click to expand...
My bet is that it won't go lower than 460...
 
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fperk_83

fperk_83

Hero Member
Nov 1, 2016
213
30
Hope your predictions come true, desperately waiting for the draw to happen today and know the cut off score

Dheana90 said:
Ok. As we have a new 1000+ and 472 in our internal tracker, I will do the calculation again

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 472 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/22=94profile/score. Based on our internal tracker, we have also 7 people having 1000+ score. Let's multiple that by 100= 700


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460score newly added)
-158 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-700(601-1200)
-94 (of 472-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-380 (of 4,561 of 463 left after 4 Sep draw)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 462 left after 4 sep draw)
-94(of 104 of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 461 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 104 of 461 newly added score)
-380 (of 4561 of 460 left after 4 sep draw)
-94 (of 460 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4561 of 459 left after 4Sep draw)
-94 (of 459 newly added score)
-380 (of 380 of 4,561 of 458 left after 4 Sep)
-78 (of 458 newly added score)
Click to expand...
 
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Reactions: Manish Patel and Dheana90
T

tokdmvb

Newbie
Sep 18, 2019
7
3
Hey guys, good luck! New to this thread so I apologize if someone's asked this already but what would you guess chances are with a 478 score for today's draw?
 
Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
tokdmvb said:
Hey guys, good luck! New to this thread so I apologize if someone's asked this already but what would you guess chances are with a 478 score for today's draw?
Click to expand...
You will get invitation for today's draw. Congratulation in advance. :)
 
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