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Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

Dheana90

Dheana90

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Apr 8, 2019
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EnthuChap said:
"..there will be approximately 3,011
Click to expand...
Dheana90 said:
My cut off score estimation for 21st Aug based on the CRS score distribution.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

Note : As the cut off on 24th July draw was 459, it means the 3,990 profiles left in the pool are those who have score of 451-459 only.

Aug 2nd CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =474
451-600 =6,827
441-450 =7,821

It means, in 10 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 47profile/day (474/10)
451-600 =283pr/day(6,827-3,990=2,837/10)
441-450 =11profile/day (7,821-7,711=110/10)

By 12th Aug, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =944 (474+ 470(47x10days))
451-600 =9,657(6,827+ 2830(283x10))
441-450 = 7,931(7,821+ 110(11x10))

Note: 9,657 - 3,990 = 5,667 profile added between 2nd and 12th August are those who have score 466-600.

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-944=2,656)
451-600 = 7,001(9,657- 2,656)
441-450 =7,931

Note: 7001 includes 3,990 candidates who have score 451-459 left from 24th July draw. As the cut off score was 466, it mean 7001-3,990 =3,011 other remaining profiles are those who have score 466-600.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, half are those who have score 451-465 and half have 466-600.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 465-466
3,600 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
166 ( of 1.274 from 466-600 newly added profile)

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
3,900 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
466( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
4,000 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
566( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

Note: There is a big chance of more nomination from OINP will be approved from today and before the next draw so, the number of 1000+ scores will increase as well.
Click to expand...
Ok. Correction guys and thanks @EnthuChap for pointing it out.

After the 12th August draw CRS distribution data, I suppose to write on the following "NOTE" From 7,001 of 451-600 score range, 3,990 were those in 451-459 range left from 24th July draw and the rest of 3,011 will be of score 451-466 only Not 466-600.

Let's assume that from 3,011, 70% of it (2,108) will be in range of 460-466 and 30% (903) will be in 451-459 range.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Let's also assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, 1,783(70%) are those who have score 460-600 and 764(30%) are of 451-459 range.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 463-464
3,600 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,394(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)


If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
3,900 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,694(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
4,000 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,794(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)
 
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Kenneth89

Kenneth89

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Jun 1, 2019
405
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Dheana90 said:







Ok. Correction guys and thanks @EnthuChap for pointing it out.

After the 12th August draw CRS distribution data, I suppose to write on the following "NOTE" From 7,001 of 451-600 score range, 3,990 were those in 451-459 range left from 24th July draw and the rest of 3,011 will be of score 451-466 only Not 466-600.

Let's assume that from 3,011, 70% of it (2,108) will be in range of 460-466 and 30% (903) will be in 451-459 range.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Let's also assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, 1,783(70%) are those who have score 460-600 and 764(30%) are of 451-459 range.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 463-464
3,600 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,394(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)


If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
3,900 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,694(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
4,000 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,794(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)
Click to expand...


I guess u still have corrections to be done, u still haven't gotten it right...check properly
 
Kenneth89

Kenneth89

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Jun 1, 2019
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ankchat

Member
Aug 30, 2018
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riddymon said:
PNP is separate from express entry but tied to express entry at the same time. If that makes sense. You can create your express entry profile and sit in the queue...however, you can apply separately for PNP and successfully receiving PNP and accepting will automatically update your express entry profile with an extra 600 points. That's why getting PNP guarantees an invitation. 600 is an extremely good score in and of itself (pretty much guarantees getting an invite), so adding that to your existing score is just a way to push your profile to the top of the queue with a 900-1000+ score.
Click to expand...
Thank you! Can we apply to multiple provinces? Could you please direct me to the right link to start this application (or if you could give me an overview of what all is required to register for PNPs) .. and I assume i can enroll even if I am not in canada just as we can for express entry
 
Kenneth89

Kenneth89

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Jun 1, 2019
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Shadow108 said:
I read this as a good news story. The system appears to be working and is unlikely to change dramatically, despite the upcoming election. The number of invites might change, but not likely an overhaul of the entire process.
Click to expand...

But from what I read the conservative government is totally against it And they have said it's going to be the first agenda, when they came to power,also planning to limit the express entry to labour market needs
 
riddymon

riddymon

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Kenneth89 said:
But from what I read the conservative government is totally against it And they have said it's going to be the first agenda, when they came to power,also planning to limit the express entry to labour market needs
Click to expand...
They always say these things but the factor of the matter is, killing off your immigration will kill off your economy. Immigration has been a hot topic long before Trudeau came into power. In fact, Express Entry (which has arguably made it much easier/faster for immigrants to get PR) came into fruition under a conservative government. It was also during that time that they started introducing PNP streams to bring expedite the process for immigrants to get PR. Under the election, I'd expect minor tweaks for the path to PR + rollbacks on the path to citizenship (having to wait more time before being eligible) but don't expect sweeping changes that will screw over a ton of people wanting to get PR. That takes effort and money, will negatively affect a lot of canadians, especially business owners and would hurt the economy as I said above.
 
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Shadow108

Newbie
Jun 28, 2019
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Kenneth89 said:
But from what I read the conservative government is totally against it And they have said it's going to be the first agenda, when they came to power,also planning to limit the express entry to labour market needs
Click to expand...
Just for the sake of clarification, there is no Conservative government at present. There is a Conservative party. The two are not the same. Let's keep this a "ray of hope" conversation and say "if" they come to power, not "when" :)
 
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Ontherock

Star Member
Jul 21, 2019
76
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i think its not legal to have two profiles. check with experts. you might end up losing ur ITA, face rejections and banned for 5 years. try to be honest.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=864&top=29

she can accept ITA without spouse.

JtJames said:
Hi Everybody,

I have a question here. Can anyone who is married apply PR through CEC without her spouse?

This is my situation, on July 24, my wife got ITA with her CRS as 461 without spouse. But meanwhile, she has another files with the spouse as CRS score of 459.

Now her work permit is going to be expired. Can she just accept her ITA without spouse?

Thank you guys
Click to expand...
 
M

Milanarora

Full Member
Mar 16, 2019
38
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People who have been worried about elections should note that policy changing is no joke and it will take some time even for the new elected government. All polls like CBC tracker, Nanos research and 338 projection shows Liberal taking lead and Trudeau being reelected. I don't think we should worry about this.
 
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kalex123

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Dec 27, 2018
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Milanarora said:
People who have been worried about elections should note that policy changing is no joke and it will take some time even for the new elected government. All polls like CBC tracker, Nanos research and 338 projection shows Liberal taking lead and Trudeau being reelected. I don't think we should worry about this.
Click to expand...
yes
this is just hype created by consultants thats all
let me explain u an example
in us we have h4 ead the trump adminstration wanted to get rid off it
its 2019 we still have it is not that easy to change policies there is due process to change it tit will take 6-12 months to do it
 
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