Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

[AB17]

Happiness to look at 124th thread was so shortlived.

 

[Punitsingh]

If draw happens in the 21st the CRS score will drop to 460+-1..

Correct!

 

[Kenneth89]

No need of 1000 number of PNP applicants in irder for score to stay high.

If you see my calculation properly, the estimations of PNP applicants is only 423. But because there will be approximately 3,011 of 466-600 applicants left from 12th Aug draw and around 1,000 more added from 12th -21st Aug, that's why cut off score will stay in the range of 465-466 with the current 3,600 ITA issued. Even 400more ITAs won't make much different in cut off score if the density of 465+ is still high.

Well let me start by saying I appreciate your calculations, but to be sincere the accuracy at this point is not 10% guaranteed...I guess this was same way u calculated before and u predicted the CRS score will be 461 with 3 weeks gap.but even in 19 days it was 466.I will advise u start subtracting from every high calculations and adding 5 to every low calculations. 9 days to the nxt draw is almost a B2B how can u predict that?

 

[EnthuChap]

Haha..

Did u guys actually read the whole calculation or just skipped and find the cut off score on the bottom of my post?

If you guys read the whole calculation, you guys should understand why I estimated that the cut off score will stay high.

Anyway, this is my personal estimation. I can wrong and right.

I'm not trying to dissapoint anyone here. I just do the calculation based on the CRS distribution published. I do not just simply made up the number.

If you see the calculation and "note" properly. It is estimated that after Monday draw. There were 7001 candidates left in the pool in the score range of 451-600. For which, 3,990 are those left from 24th July draw eho have score 451-459 and as the cut off was 466, it means the remaining 3,011 profiles were those having 466-600.

And "NO", my calculation is for 21st Aug only @Midnight Blessing, every draw have different published CRS distribution so my estimation calculation will be different as well.

That's find if you guys are not happy with my calculation. You guys can show us your calculation too. The more input, the better.

I love your calculations - very well described and nicely put together. However, one thing is sure that cutoff used to be 450s even with 3350 and that was because there wasn't OINP back then. Drawing from that, if there aren't many PNP nominations, score is bound to drop. Again, those descriptives give a good breakup but ascertaining a cutoff is still a guess work, even though they have been majorly accurate. I don't have a calculation but presented a logical explanation ;-)

 

[#EEC]

I doubt that there will be draw on 21 aug. Because if it happens n 2 weeks gap there after will lead to 3 draws in October. .. Which is very unlikely.. .. Or there is will be another two weeks plus gap to compensate tht.. ..what u ppl think. .

 

[Kenneth89]

I doubt that there will be draw on 21 aug. Because if it happens n 2 weeks gap there after will lead to 3 draws in October. .. Which is very unlikely.. .. Or there is will be another two weeks plus gap to compensate tht.. ..what u ppl think. .

One draw in October will be for FST. And two normal draws

 

[Dheana90]

I love your calculations - very well described and nicely put together. However, one thing is sure that cutoff used to be 450s even with 3350 and that was because there wasn't OINP back then. Drawing from that, if there aren't many PNP nominations, score is bound to drop. Again, those descriptives give a good breakup but ascertaining a cutoff is still a guess work, even though they have been majorly accurate. I don't have a calculation but presented a logical explanation ;-)

Well...I never say that my calculation is correct and will definitely be the actual cut off score for the next draw. So, you should understand why I use words like "estimation, approximate,etc.."

I only want to present my input in this thread based on the latest data published by CIC to give a rough idea so some of followers who are asking for next cut off score.

However, I never ask or force anyone to believe or agree with my calculation as a definite reflection of the upcoming draw data and cut off.

 

[EnthuChap]

No need of 1000 number of PNP applicants in order for score to stay high.

If you see my calculation properly, the estimations of PNP applicants is only 423. But because there will be approximately 3,011 of 466-600 applicants left from 12th Aug draw and around 1,000 more added from 12th -21st Aug, that's why cut off score will stay in the range of 465-466 with the current 3,600 ITA issued. Even 400more ITAs won't make much different in cut off score if the density of 465+ is still high.

"..there will be approximately 3,011 of 466-600 applicants left from 12th Aug draw" Pardon me for failing to understand this, but why would anyone between 466-600 be left behind when the cutoff was 466 and the tie breaker was also reasonably recent?

 

[#EEC]

One draw in October will be for FST. And two normal draws

So tht means another 4 week's gap in October for general draw...

 

[yg96]

score is 457 should i go for another ielts test as i got 6.5 in writing and i am pretty sure could've done it better and i did it but unfortunately i received 6.5 what do u guys suggest

 

[tony87]

score is 457 should i go for another ielts test as i got 6.5 in writing and i am pretty sure could've done it better and i did it but unfortunately i received 6.5 what do u guys suggest

I strongly suggest you take IELTS again and again until you hit 8/7/7/7 to get the extra points. And if you haven't tried computer-based IELTS, you should try it because it's so much easier to write an essay on a computer, provided that you can at least type as fast as you write by hand.

 

[cromaine]

I strongly suggest you take IELTS again and again until you hit 8/7/7/7 to get the extra points. And if you haven't tried computer-based IELTS, you should try it because it's so much easier to write an essay on a computer, provided that you can at least type as fast as you write by hand.

So does this mean that people at 457 have no chance at all? And have to increase their points?

 

[Kenneth89]

So does this mean that people at 457 have no chance at all? And have to increase their points?

There is chance for u...in Oct

 

[tony87]

So does this mean that people at 457 have no chance at all? And have to increase their points?

Well, you never know what's gonna happen. Just a couple of months ago, 450 is a decent score. I'm not being pessimistic or making any prediction here; I just want to say it's better safe than sorry. You can get a lot of extra points and become much safer if you you can just improve your IELTS writing just a little bit.

 

[Hasrat123]

This could happen once again be positive guys