Ray of Hope - 119th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
EnthuChap
Hero Member
- Jun 9, 2014
- 605
- Category........
- PNP
- Visa Office......
- Sydney, NS
- NOC Code......
- 0601
- App. Filed.......
- 01-12-2019
- Doc's Request.
- 22-01-2020
- Nomination.....
- 26-11-2019
- AOR Received.
- 01-12-2019
- Med's Request
- 02-11-2019
- Med's Done....
- 17-01-2020
- Passport Req..
- 06-04-2021
- LANDED..........
- 10-09-2021
If we look from your perspective that current year's ITAs count towards next year's intake targets, then surely the ITAs issued must be even more; as immigration goal for 2020 is even higher.You must take into account that the goal of 81 K this year is the number of PRs, there's a huge backlog of people who've already received their ITAs last year. I am a member in telegram groups each with 100s of people from October, November and December waiting for their PRs.
If you go through threads as far back as June 2018 on this forum you'll find there are still people waiting or just receiving their PRs now. I myself have an ITA of 2018 but my AOR is in 2019 and my PR will count towards the PR goal of 2019. Also consider the fact that there are targets for families/spouses, we don't know how exactly those are being calculated. (for example me and my spouse would have both received an ITA if we checked our CRS scores alone, would CIC consider us as 1 Federal high skilled and 1 spouse or 2 federal high skilled is a little ambiguous.
So while the calculation of 94,000 ITAs needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Also, the assumption that the cutoff will go back down to 450 may be sound because there has certainly been a higher inflow of 451+ candidates in the month of may. This graph shows approximate per day inflow of 451+ candidates between the last few draws. Days between May 1 draw and May 29th draw were 28 yet the pool of 451+ increased by 5,353 candidates. Compare it to 451+ pool increasing by 1,790 candidates in the 14 days proceeding May 1 draw and you see there's definitely a jump in higher CRS candidates in May. If this inflow is going to stay at 190+ a day, it will take atleast 5-6 more draws to get the CRS anywhere close to 450, considering 6 more fortnightly FSW draws of 3350 each, no change in inflow and no other surprises. Breaching 448-450 may still be possible but I do not see the cutoff going below 448 for the next 4-5 months.
Now for facts 89,000 ITAs were issued last year and we can safely assume that issued ITAs in 2019 (95,000 ITAs lets say) will either match or surpass this figure. So would you support that 55,000 more ITAs are to be issued in the next 7 months or more ambitiously, 60,000 ITAs in the next 7 months?
PNP simply adds around 600 CRS points to your application. So yes there will be PNP
You can calculate based on 729 candidates falling in the range of 601-1200. Mostly, 600+ score can only be achieved with the help of PNP invite.
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
So, 22% of applicants were part of PNP this time (729/3350*100).
It happens due to draw conducted on 28 days gap and PNP applications were approved in the month of May, hence applicants with 600+ score were more this time.
My only concern with that logic is, we are missing statistically important variables like rejection rates, dropout rates after COPR(people who never land)Let's say they have a target of 81000 this year and 89000 next year. Also let's assume that about 40% applicants from last years 89 k ITAs had not been completely processed by the time this year started. (considering an average processing time of atleast 4 months + another 1 month from ITA to AOR and also considering last year ending portion had larger draw sizes 40% is a conservative estimate)
That's 35 k potential PRs this year, they would need another 45 k to complete the target for 2019 from ITA issued between Jan-Sep (conservatively expecting that ITAs issued after September will flow over to 2020.
But again, we are missing out on finer points like if both a primary applicant and a spouse are highly skilled does IRCC have a system to count them as 1 or two High skilled PRs? If they only count as 1 then there's an immigration target of 68,000 for spouses family and children... how do they manage that.
I am not saying 55,000 more ITAs are or are not going to be issued. I'm simply saying that there's not enough solid data for deriving a conclusion. The only thing for certain is CRS pool will become more competitive. People <445 should try hard for PNPs.
I am lurking on this forum since several months. The calculation is straightforward. I m getting late for my work; will explain later
Previous roh threads had in majority 430-450 guys intervening. With even some people over 460 in distress, the lower bands are becoming silent watchers and less active whereas they are the ones really looking for a ray of hope and in need of serious motivation and advices to increase Crs. 455+ guys, your ITAs are just delayed and in a couple of rounds you are all fine. Even 451+ guys are still well positioned.
Please don't lose hope. People got ITA at 413 CRS 2 years back.
It might be more delay than usual but the score will come down to 430 - 440 someday.
Moreover, there are very high hopes for the ON/BC PNP programs. 430+ is a very healthy score for it.
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This is the actual meaning of 'Ray of Hope' . Thanks for the motivation for people like us.