Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)
- Thread starter Immime2017
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You also didn't account for the fact that MANY candidates in the express entry profile are making it to the ONE-year work experience in Canada that adds 50+ points depending on your level of English. Personally, I've just earned skilled Canadian work experience (12-months) few days ago and updated my EE profile. CRS score jumped from 410 to 494 points! I'm so excited and ready to receive the long-awaited invitation to apply email.
Another reason it may not go below 400 or even 410 is because of the fact that many provinces like Ontario, a major player in the Canadian Immigration System, have programs such as the "Human Capital Priorities Stream", which selects candidates who achieved 400+ points in their EE Profile for Provincial Nomination. This program is a revenue maker for Ontario as each applicant pays around $1,500 CAD to be nominated by the province. Therefore, rounds of invitations below 400 or 410 is a conflict of interest between the Federal Government and individual provinces as it undermines their role in the immigration system and cuts back the funding for their Provincial Nominee Program.
Hence, as much as Canada loves new skilled immigrants, it is worth considering the business-side of the Canadian Immigration System as they're a source of funding and incentives for Provinces to create/maintain and innovate their individual immigration programs.
Regards!
Another reason it may not go below 400 or even 410 is because of the fact that many provinces like Ontario, a major player in the Canadian Immigration System, have programs such as the "Human Capital Priorities Stream", which selects candidates who achieved 400+ points in their EE Profile for Provincial Nomination. This program is a revenue maker for Ontario as each applicant pays around $1,500 CAD to be nominated by the province. Therefore, rounds of invitations below 400 or 410 is a conflict of interest between the Federal Government and individual provinces as it undermines their role in the immigration system and cuts back the funding for their Provincial Nominee Program.
Hence, as much as Canada loves new skilled immigrants, it is worth considering the business-side of the Canadian Immigration System as they're a source of funding and incentives for Provinces to create/maintain and innovate their individual immigration programs.
Regards!
So are you saying the entire Ontario's GDP is based solely on Immigration then? It is completely foolish to attribute an entire province's GDP to Ontario's Department of Immigration rate of nomination. Ontario's total GDP involves a lot more than just the new number of immigrants so both things are not comparable at all.monavy said:
In addition and in case you don't know, OINP is a self-funded program, like many other provinces, and it heavily relies on per applicant profit margin to sustain itself; run and innovate its programs.Thus, what would be the incentive then for Provinces to invest in PNPs when the Federal Government is just inviting whomever they want? What would be your incentive to apply for Ontario's PNP, pay $1,500, if you know you will be nominated with a 405 CRS score? None! This is why CRS score may not go lower than what it did. You should definitely do more research before posting any comments on this website where hundreds of people are reading and possibly seeking a reasonable and educated information.
i will use your argument to prove your opposite claim. you are the perfect example that last score rise is only temp.novascotia27 said:
the score had risen because you moved from 410 to 490, you didnt enter the pool from outside. we have one less person in 400-420 now which will get the scores to drop in next draws. whether you were selected with ITA at 410 or ITA at 490 in both cases you are out which opens the way for the people in the lower ranks to get selected
as long as CIC keep it up with the +3700 invitations scores will drop.
considering the june changes. if these guys are already in 380-420 range it wont affect the score for long. unless thousands and thousands of french speaking people who are not in the pool see it as an opportunity to immigrate now and enter the pool. but anyways getting their ECA and IELTS will take few months so we wont see immediate effect of new french entries in june right away.
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Monavy is trying to say say the same thing... you have mis quoted or misunderstoodnovascotia27 said:
Sorry to disappoint you, but you aren't seeing the real picture. Here is the data and analysis, if you can get it.GOOD NEWS! The score will definitely go below 400 soon!
Here is why:
- I have been doing a lot of calculations using the last three stats released about the number of candidates in the pool and their scores
- Felt like it was not sufficient data for predicting the trend over the next rounds
- I found out that they released the same data about the pool as of 3/Jan/2017 in their Year-End Report 2016
- I used that to predict the next few rounds, given the average number of candidates added per day over the last 4 months
- The results [taking into account the changes they introduce mid June]:
- Conservative estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 26
- Regular estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 5 (Likely Scenario)
- Optimistic estimate: CRS goes under 400 on June 21
- You can see the trend in the pool since January here: imgur.com/kEvDIzZ (This makes it really clear!)
- Some of my calculations: imgur.com/a/SatZC
Total target for 2017 EE : 73,700
ITAs given in first 4 months Jan-April 2017 : 35,973
Which mean almost half of the required target is already issued. (of course how many will accept the ITAs and get PRs can be ignored for the moment)
Now, with 8 more months to go, no one from outside of the department knows how many they would invite every month.
Now let's look at the data.
On April 7th there were 10139 in the pool with above 400 CRS
On April 28th there were 8314 in the pool with above 400 CRS
From April 7th till April 28th there were 2 rounds of invitation which were above 400.
One on April 12th with 3,923 ITAs
Another in Apr 19th with 3665 ITAS
Totaling 7588
Which means From April 7th till April 28th 7,588 were out from pool because they were given ITAs.
Which means 10139-7588 = 2551 are remained in the pool since April 7th till April 28 as they were not given ITAs as they were less than 415 CRS (lowest invite).
Here, if you notice, there were 8314 in the pool on April 28th with above 400 CRS. Which implies that 8314-2551 = 5763 where added to pool with 400+ score between April 7th and April 28th. Which is 3 weeks. So, about 1921 were added per week.
That means about 1900 are being added to the pool with CRS 400+ per WEEK... so even if they have to invite every 2 weeks they will have a fresh 3800 people being added with 400+ score.
And, you are dreaming for CRS invitation rounds to go less than 400.
All my predictions are based on the assumption that they will continue taking an average of 3700+ candidates every two weeks. I didn't know about the 73,700 target. However, I don't think that will change anything in the near term, it might change the number of candidates they take later in the year (October-ish)
In any case, I stand by my prediction, and here are a couple more:
1- If there is a round tomorrow (10/May), the score will very likely go below 412.
2- If there is no round tomorrow, and since they release stats every two weeks, the next time they release distribution stats will be 13/May. For that day, and based on historical data, I predict that:
a) there will be 3700 candidates at most with scores over 411
b) there will be 7800 candidates at most with scores over 401
The best way to get concrete numbers is to look at their stats, and that's what I have been following.
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A huge mistake that a lot of people make is to look at the last one or two rounds to make their predictions. However, you need way more than that. I had to take into account the data they released in January to make most of my predictions and that gives me a better estimate of the average number of people that are added per round and the trend, which is definitely going downwards. I might make a video explaining it all later this month.
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You need to look at historical data, not just one round. A spike in one round could be an outlier, no matter what the reason is. I calculated the average over the last 4 months.
Actually they have to fill the 2017 quota by September/October so 5-6 months are still left.
Let me explain why historical data cannot be used to analyze the trend for scores below 430.
All historical data has been for scores above 430.
To get to a score above 430, you need to have CLB 9 and with either a masters degree or Canadian experience or LMIA or provincial nomination.
To get to score 429, you just need a bachelors degree and CLB 9. Lot of candidates will qualify this criteria.
This means the number of new candidates entering the pool with score below 430 is significantly higher. More candidates entering the pool means there is less chance of drop in cutoff.
I would say that the cutoff score will settle around 415-420 range and will not drop below that.