Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[picklee]

GOOD NEWS! The score will definitely go below 400 soon!

Here is why:

• I have been doing a lot of calculations using the last three stats released about the number of candidates in the pool and their scores
• Felt like it was not sufficient data for predicting the trend over the next rounds
• I found out that they released the same data about the pool as of 3/Jan/2017 in their Year-End Report 2016
• I used that to predict the next few rounds, given the average number of candidates added per day over the last 4 months
• The results [taking into account the changes they introduce mid June]:
  • Conservative estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 26
  • Regular estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 5 (Likely Scenario)
  • Optimistic estimate: CRS goes under 400 on June 21
• You can see the trend in the pool since January here:

This makes it really clear!

Updated graph with trend-line and prediction:

Some of my calculations: http://imgur.com/a/SatZC

Your analysis is problematic because you have fit a linear trend to 4 samples to make a projection. The point on your graph from the 2015 year-end report is a serious outlier that affects the magnitude of the trend, which by the way does not have any confidence interval. Also, you don't account for the quota admissions from the various streams or the number of ITAs issued to-date.

Your conclusions are invalid and misleading for most lay folks clicking here.

 

[Immime2017]

Your analysis is problematic because you have fit a linear trend to 4 samples to make a projection. The point on your graph from the 2015 year-end report is a serious outlier that affects the magnitude of the trend, which by the way does not have any confidence interval. Also, you don't account for the quota admissions from the various streams or the number of ITAs issued to-date.

Your conclusions are invalid and misleading for most lay folks clicking here.

There is no point on my graph from 2015, I start with January 2017. I do take into account the number of ITAs issued to date. I also clearly state that this is assuming they do ~3700 invites/round.

But for the sake of the argument, please provide us with more valid conclusions, I would love to see that actually.

 

[picklee]

There is no point on my graph from 2015, I start with January 2017. I do take into account the number of ITAs issued to date. I also clearly state that this is assuming they do ~3700 invites/round.

But for the sake of the argument, please provide us with more valid conclusions, I would love to see that actually.

Sorry I meant the 2016 year-end report. We are splitting hairs here. You can't draw such broad sweeping conclusions from 4 data points without any consideration or measure of confidence.

Every mean has a standard deviation.

 

[Immime2017]

Sorry I meant the 2016 year-end report. We are splitting hairs here. You can't draw such broad sweeping conclusions from 4 data points without any consideration or measure of confidence.

Every mean has a standard deviation.

OK, so given the information we have:
1- The four distributions of candidates' scores in 2017
2- The number of candidates invited per round over that period
3- Some best guess assumptions for future rounds like:

• ~3700 invited/round
• The frequency of invitation rounds per month: 2.x/month, where 0 < x <4

What can we conclude?

 

[pk saini]

OK, so given the information we have:
1- The four distributions of candidates' scores in 2017
2- The number of candidates invited per round over that period
3- Some best guess assumptions for future rounds like:

• ~3700 invited/round
• The frequency of invitation rounds per month: 2.x/month, where 0 < x <4

What can we conclude?

i am disheartened because i was going to make profile on monday but due to experience problems i couldn't. i was sure that in the next draw i could got ita.i have to wait few more months. any idea what will be the trend of crs draw after october?

 

[CANCANADA]

Sorry to disappoint you, but you aren't seeing the real picture. Here is the data and analysis, if you can get it.

Total target for 2017 EE : 73,700
ITAs given in first 4 months Jan-April 2017 : 35,973

Which mean almost half of the required target is already issued. (of course how many will accept the ITAs and get PRs can be ignored for the moment)

Now, with 8 more months to go, no one from outside of the department knows how many they would invite every month.

Now let'€™s look at the data.

On April 7th there were 10139 in the pool with above 400 CRS
On April 28th there were 8314 in the pool with above 400 CRS

From April 7th till April 28th there were 2 rounds of invitation which were above 400.

One on April 12th with 3,923 ITAs
Another in Apr 19th with 3665 ITAS

Totaling 7588



Which means From April 7th till April 28th 7,588 were out from pool because they were given ITAs.

Which means 10139-7588 = 2551 are remained in the pool since April 7th till April 28 as they were not given ITAs as they were less than 415 CRS (lowest invite).

Here, if you notice, there were 8314 in the pool on April 28th with above 400 CRS. Which implies that 8314-2551 = 5763 where added to pool with 400+ score between April 7th and April 28th. Which is 3 weeks. So, about 1921 were added per week.

That means about 1900 are being added to the pool with CRS 400+ per WEEK... so even if they have to invite every 2 weeks they will have a fresh 3800 people being added with 400+ score.

And, you are dreaming for CRS invitation rounds to go less than 400.

None of you are factoring that there is a significant percentage of people who decline their ITA's for various reasons and are added back into the pool. Therefore not all entering the pool are fresh applicants, rather a part of the pool rotating. Please keep this factor in mind too before coming to conclusions on predictions of draw scores

 

[pk saini]

Actually they have to fill the 2017 quota by September/October so 5-6 months are still left.

i am really nervous because i will make my profile after november . i have crs of 444 points. i pray that crs don't go above thatm

 

[picklee]

OK, so given the information we have:
1- The four distributions of candidates' scores in 2017
2- The number of candidates invited per round over that period
3- Some best guess assumptions for future rounds like:

• ~3700 invited/round
• The frequency of invitation rounds per month: 2.x/month, where 0 < x <4

What can we conclude?

From the CRS score distributions, we see that there were 8300 profiles sitting above 400. 2300 profiles entered above 421 between April 28 and the last draw on May 4.

There have been 39,767 ITAs issued in 2017. I have (conservatively) estimated before that IRCC needs to issue about 68,000 ITAs this year to meet the economic quotas. So about 28,000 additional ITAs are very likely by year-end.

The average number of ITAs per draw in 2016 was 1251, standard deviation of 582.

The average number of ITAs per draw in 2017 to-date was 3615, standard deviation of 290.

The big difference in both the mean and the variation between 2016 and 2017 suggest that these data are not comparable. Certainly they should not be modelled together linearly.

We can say, with about 95% confidence, that the number of ITAs per future draw will be in the range of 3325-3905. However, we also know that IRCC is not likely to issue many more than 28,000 ITAs for the remainder of the year. So Probably that estimate of ITAs per draw is quite generous, unless there is another substantial policy change.

The final consideration is that IRCC can have a draw whenever it is best suited for drawing high quality profiles. For example, why should they have a draw every week and invite lower-ranked profiles, when they can wait two or three weeks and keep the draw above 420? Higher ranked candidates will always enter the pool given some time, so there is a balance between meeting their quotas and landing the highest quality candidates possible.

 

[picklee]

None of you are factoring that there is a significant percentage of people who decline their ITA's for various reasons and are added back into the pool. Therefore not all entering the pool are fresh applicants, rather a part of the pool rotating. Please keep this factor in mind too before coming to conclusions on predictions of draw scores

It's really challenging to predict draw scores. However, we know exactly how many ITAs expired or were declined. In the 2015, that rate was about 30%. In 2017, it jumped to 41%.

 

[astralsource]

i am really nervous because i will make my profile after november . i have crs of 444 points. i pray that crs don't go above thatm

In November the scores will already move down when they start issuing ITAs under the new quota (2018).

 

[Onayimi]

I don't believe we can deduce to what extent the scores will fall by looking at the historical trends because more people than ever before are getting aware of this program and entering into pool, particularly as the required scores have gone below 420 once. A lot of young people with BSC and good knowledge of English now realize they can easily get over 420 and stand a good chance of getting an ITA. I believe CIC will be seeing more than 3000 new applicants bi-weekly with scores over 420.

I'm not using any intelligent analysis, just drawing my conclusions from I see happening around me.

 

[Onayimi]

In November the scores will already move down when they start issuing ITAs under the new quota (2018).

Has the quota for 2018 been released?

 

[_Aspirant]

subscribing...

 

[astralsource]

I

Has the quota for 2018 been released?

Not yet but should be higher than for 2017, based on the announcements.

 

[Immime2017]

From the CRS score distributions, we see that there were 8300 profiles sitting above 400. 2300 profiles entered above 421 between April 28 and the last draw on May 4.

There have been 39,767 ITAs issued in 2017. I have (conservatively) estimated before that IRCC needs to issue about 68,000 ITAs this year to meet the economic quotas. So about 28,000 additional ITAs are very likely by year-end.

The average number of ITAs per draw in 2016 was 1251, standard deviation of 582.

The average number of ITAs per draw in 2017 to-date was 3615, standard deviation of 290.

The big difference in both the mean and the variation between 2016 and 2017 suggest that these data are not comparable. Certainly they should not be modelled together linearly.

We can say, with about 95% confidence, that the number of ITAs per future draw will be in the range of 3325-3905. However, we also know that IRCC is not likely to issue many more than 28,000 ITAs for the remainder of the year. So Probably that estimate of ITAs per draw is quite generous, unless there is another substantial policy change.

The final consideration is that IRCC can have a draw whenever it is best suited for drawing high quality profiles. For example, why should they have a draw every week and invite lower-ranked profiles, when they can wait two or three weeks and keep the draw above 420? Higher ranked candidates will always enter the pool given some time, so there is a balance between meeting their quotas and landing the highest quality candidates possible.

There is a critical flaw in your logic in the last statement. You are assuming that candidates with scores below 420 are lower quality. They could be just older.

I agree with you that they would keep the range between 3325-3905, if I were to guess, I would say they will probably keep the rounds high, until they need to slow down and then they would do a very low round or more, they did that before.

My estimate is that they will issue a total of 97,000 ITAs this year, not 68,000. I would say that they will definitely stay within the 3325-3905 range to meet that by year-end.