GandiBaat
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There is a third possibility. A mild-moderate recession in USA followed by lowering of interest rate again, all over. 2008 kind of response once again. I will hate to be right again but it seems this is the direction we are moving. One component is present, right now holding money in bank has become more desirable than investing it in business. The other component is supply of commodities causing inflation.If they try extending amortizations to 90 years: stagflation
If they try lowering interest rates abruptly: Canadian Pesos
What can cause that component? Many thing:
1. Death of Putin followed by end of war in Ukraine. All of a sudden Russian wheat, gas and hydrocarbons will be acceptable/available all over again leading to (over?) supply and price correction of important commodities, which combined with very high interest rates will cause a minor deflation in US. Why spend money in these commodities when they are cheaply available?
2. Capitulation of Ukraine. Again similar to above. Ukraine is now reaching its tipping point and war fatigue is setting in. Plus, its been dragging for too long now.
3. Change of regime in US followed by policy shift. Basically another way 2. may play out.
The biggest reason? ALL BANKS in Canada are offering MASSIVELY expensive 1-2 years mortgage but much cheaper 5 year mortgages. This was seldom the scenario in past. 1 year mortgage rate is more expensive than 10 year rate right now! That never used to happen AFAIK. Further damning? Variable rates for 5 year are MORE than for fixed rate!
Source : https://www.td.com/ca/en/personal-banking/products/mortgages/mortgage-rates
Basically, they expect to lock you in for 5 years at higher interest rates. These bastards know more than all of us. Their pricing shows only one thing. They expect chances of lowering of inter bank rates in 2-3 years horizon significantly this is why they are cajoling people to 5 years ones so that they can lock you in for that period. And the same reason why they are pricing variable rate higher. They expect reduction in interest rates.