FSW WORLDWIDE

[GandiBaat]

Maybe you're right but I think it will take a bit longer before we will see the full extent of the damage caused by the current macroeconomic situation. For example, in the UK (and I'm assuming it's similar in many other countries) many people still have their mortgages locked at 1.5-2.5%. But these deals will end over the next months (well, couple of years) and suddenly they will be hit with rates around 5-7% or more. Some people simply won't be able to afford it, which will lead to them downsizing (or foreclosures in extreme cases) and property prices overall going down. In October prices of properties in the UK went down by 1% - it's not much but it's the first time they went down in almost 1.5 years. Estimates are that they can dip around 7-10% next year.

At the end of the day no market (including real estate) goes up forever. Sure, on the longer timeframe - yes. But on the shorter timeframes there are always pullbacks. Property market has been going up for a while and eventually, it must come back down.

Fair point regarding other cities. I guess it's hard to make exact comparisons.

The only issue here is massive oversupply of cash. Its late 70s all over again! too much cash chasing too less stuff. That and supply constrains. This is why there is inflation. And correction of inflation is recession. I hope banks do not pussyfoot and take hard measures fast. Like increasing rate of interest fast.

 

[AndyUK]

The only issue here is massive oversupply of cash. Its late 70s all over again! too much cash chasing too less stuff. That and supply constrains. This is why there is inflation. And correction of inflation is recession. I hope banks do not pussyfoot and take hard measures fast. Like increasing rate of interest fast.

Yep, that's why I think we're heading for a hard crash in 2023. It's going to be rough for a while but once we will start coming out of the recession (whenever this may be), things should look a bit more normal.

 

[cansha]

I still remember my interview at TD. Data structures and algorithms (level medium -> hard), system design, 2 rounds of behavioral interview. For what? To use Informatica GUI tool for ETL pipelines. I am like, dude, get out of there. I am not doing this crap.

More and more people need to call out the BS on these hiring practices and just bow out of the recruitment process. The work these banks do is not cutting-edge tech work. No disrespect but if someone has those level of skills why would they work at TD and not try their luck at bigger real tech companies. These companies are out of touch of reality and taking advantage of recent immigrants' hopes and fear.

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

More and more people need to call out the BS on these hiring practices and just bow out of the recruitment process. The work these banks do is not cutting-edge tech work. No disrespect but if someone has those level of skills why would they work at TD and not try their luck at bigger real tech companies. These companies are out of touch of reality and taking advantage of recent immigrants' hopes and fear.

That's exactly what I told the recruiter lol. Well, not the last "immigrant" part but everything else.

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

Maybe you're right but I think it will take a bit longer before we will see the full extent of the damage caused by the current macroeconomic situation. For example, in the UK (and I'm assuming it's similar in many other countries) many people still have their mortgages locked at 1.5-2.5%. But these deals will end over the next months (well, couple of years) and suddenly they will be hit with rates around 5-7% or more. Some people simply won't be able to afford it, which will lead to them downsizing (or foreclosures in extreme cases) and property prices overall going down. In October prices of properties in the UK went down by 1% - it's not much but it's the first time they went down in almost 1.5 years. Estimates are that they can dip around 7-10% next year.

At the end of the day no market (including real estate) goes up forever. Sure, on the longer timeframe - yes. But on the shorter timeframes there are always pullbacks. Property market has been going up for a while and eventually, it must come back down.

Fair point regarding other cities. I guess it's hard to make exact comparisons.

Not in Russia but you are correct about countries with more free market.

Real estate market has been steadily increasing for a looooong time. At least since 2014-2015. The issue is that if the market in Canada is an actual bubble (which it is) and it bursts one day, then it will be a nightmare for the economy and older generation. Will be a blessing in disguise for younger folks, though.

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

Like increasing rate of interest fast.

Which results in increase in rent. Which will worsen already crappy situation.

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

(whenever this may be)

That's an issue. 2008 market crash lasted for a long time. Surely, the recession in Canada wouldn't have that level of ripple effect but being in recession for extended period of time will have long lasting effects on the generation.

 

[AndyUK]

That's an issue. 2008 market crash lasted for a long time. Surely, the recession in Canada wouldn't have that level of ripple effect but being in recession for extended period of time will have long lasting effects on the generation.

Oh yeah, I totally agree - like I said a couple of posts above - it's going to be rough for a while but eventually it will lead to a more normal situation and plenty of great opportunities (not just in the property market). But I'm under no illusion that the near future is going to be a pretty bumpy ride.

 

[Alysson]

Hi folks ,I am back I was really busywith work,how is things going here?saw lot of guys got ita happy for them.
I saw something interesting in canada ,some of you guys may be able to give some insights.(obviously I knew prices were high)
A home in calgary now is sitting at 500-700k I am not talking about fancy stuff just average home ,let us assume 20% down payment that is 100k to 140 k and monthly payments approximately 2500-3000 ,utilities 500 ,how are new immigrants affording this homes ,I think I am getting decent salary according to canadian standards but If it is this way it is almost impossible to buy something and I forgot to add taxes .I feel like if I have to afford this I will have to work to death ,here am I missing something. Not to spread panic it is a great place to live I think this is the number 1 problem.if you get this sorted out then you are good ,trust me with good skills getting a job in a good company is easy but housing prices gave me chills.inorder to afford down-payment it will take 2 yrs that time this will be 700 to 1M$ which will again push the needle.
Obviously if you have generational wealth and get handout from your parents it is easy else it is a very tough road ahead.(which is my case).
Even with 100k you will be house poor.
Is there anything I am missing.

Unfortunately only those with built equity are capable of buying houses now. You sell a house to buy one and so on. It’s pretty ridiculous.

 

[Alysson]

New immigrants aren't affording sh*t.

If you take into account metropolitan cities like Toronto or Vancouver, they are just surviving. Good for you for moving to Calgary. The further away you move from them the richer you will be and live a more balanced life. Imagine buying a condo for $400k and paying like $600+ condo fees monthly and in some instances an additional $2k in property taxes yearly, on top of your mortgage. Freaking ridiculous. You are better off renting. A $50k yearly salary there is the bare minimum to survive.

Yeah, I am planning on moving to Toronto and was making calculations. My current salary is 50k and it would be barely possible to survive if I don’t have a car for car payments/insurance. To not have a pay cut, I need to earn an extra 10k just for the extra 500-600 in rent. It sucks though because in pharmaceutical, they don’t pay that much more in Toronto, compared to other Ontario cities.

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

Yeah, I am planning on moving to Toronto and was making calculations. My current salary is 50k and it would be barely possible to survive if I don’t have a car for car payments/insurance. To not have a pay cut, I need to earn an extra 10k just for the extra 500-600 in rent. It sucks though because in pharmaceutical, they don’t pay that much more in Toronto, compared to other Ontario cities.

Just FYI. You will have hard time affording a place at 60K. During the background check, many landlords can and will refuse you because you don't make enough. You can make a deal with them by signing a lease on their terms (more upfront rent, deposits, etc.) but those landlords are greedy and some terms would be borderline illegal.

 

[Alysson]

Housing prices will never go down until it stops being treated as an only up investment. Politicians all own multiple houses and love that prices go up at the expense of others, so they come into power to protect that status quo. Liberal party of Ontario being a pure nimby group trying to reduce housing supply from being built.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587101728788385793

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

Oh yeah, I totally agree - like I said a couple of posts above - it's going to be rough for a while but eventually it will lead to a more normal situation and plenty of great opportunities (not just in the property market). But I'm under no illusion that the near future is going to be a pretty bumpy ride.

**sigh** Like my coach used to say: "God save us from having this type of fun"

 

[Deleted member 1083629]

Housing prices will never go down until it stops being treated as an only up investment. Politicians all own multiple houses and love that prices go up at the expense of others, so they come into power to protect that status quo. Liberal party of Ontario being a pure nimby group trying to reduce housing supply from being built.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587101728788385793

Correct. There is also a thing about private equity firms and foreign capitals. Both of those things will not allow prices to go down. UNLESS, the government will do something about it. And they won't

 

[GandiBaat]

Which results in increase in rent. Which will worsen already crappy situation.

Unfortunately, there are only crappy and crappier solutions now. 1980s was really painful for a while... We are in a similar situation.