Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[sun2088]

I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.

Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.

 

[MK00004]

Hey guys, congratulations to everyone who made , just want to get an idea what timeline we are looking at after the ITA till ppr considering everything is smooth thanks

 

[huyypeter]

It

Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.

it’s the data of nov 16 and nov 23, so it’s 1 week, 7 days man. Around 328 ppl entered per day. And this is not the number from only this draw, it has been like that for a while

 

[Optimistman]

I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.

People really have time. All these analysis for something you have zero expertise on. I particularly like how you are quick to educate us on the difference between “unlikely “ and “impossible”. Bro just rest.

my small advice is don’t listen to anyone here, we all don’t know jack. So to base your actions on postulations from this group is not necessarily the best move. Don’t be optimistic or pessimistic or even realistic (whatever that means), just keep doing everything to increase your score. Like the guys who already started studying for TEF and suddenly don’t need it anymore.

God will help all of us.

 

[Parve]

Hi all,

I received the results of my medical exam and the biometrics collection letter last night.
However, I am unable to schedule an appointment for biometrics as I am seeing the 403 error when I try to navigate to the India VACs webpage.

Is anyone else going through the same issue? Please let me know.

 

[Islander216]

People really have time. All these analysis for something you have zero expertise on. I particularly like how you are quick to educate us on the difference between “unlikely “ and “impossible”. Bro just rest.

my small advice is don’t listen to anyone here, we all don’t know jack. So to base your actions on postulations from this group is not necessarily the best move. Don’t be optimistic or pessimistic or even realistic (whatever that means), just keep doing everything to increase your score. Like the guys who already started studying for TEF and suddenly don’t need it anymore.

God will help all of us.

realistic
/rɪəˈlɪstɪk/
Learn to pronounce

adjective

1. 1.
   having or showing a sensible and practical idea of what can be achieved or expected.
   "I thought we had a realistic chance of winning"
   
   
2. 2.
   representing things in a way that is accurate and true to life.
   "a realistic human drama"

 

[jesse1120]

After filling it completely ? It would take some time as the details like 10 yr address would take some time

And does these 10 yr address need to be very accurate ? I don’t remember my house #s for 2011,12 as I was just a paying guest sort of tenant

I am doing it for the first time too but I believe it needs to be as accurate as possible. The checklist is available some where online but that will not be customised to your specifics.

 

[Fey_fey]

Hi everyone, does the reference letter have to state annual salary? What about monthly salary?

 

[Carmen01]

Wahala be like bicycle

 

[Carmen01]

Hi everyone, does the reference letter have to state annual salary? What about monthly salary?

Annual salary and mention benefits , if any

 

[Igethope]

Fun fact about this draw, btw: if I hadn't learned french, I would have received my ITA this Wednesday, since I was seating at 469 before getting the 45 extra points.
Was I willing to take that risk? Hell no.

Lol same here, I was on 468 till October before TEF results came. Even at 471, I still registered for IELTS in other to get to 474, before DEC birthday . Any missed opportunity sometimes can cost one year of waiting.

 

[m.q.z90]

Hello everyone.

Since this is one of the most happening thread, I have a query raised on a new thread regarding Work History & Personal history. If experts may please reply me there. Thank you.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/entering-jobs-in-personal-history-for-no-claim-of-points.711797/

 

[ZAtoCD]

Hey guys, congratulations to everyone who made , just want to get an idea what timeline we are looking at after the ITA till ppr considering everything is smooth thanks

It varies greatly. Some people have been sitting in the "medicals passed" phase since October 2019 with seemingly no further status updates. Some people have had a "standard" (pre-COVID) 6-month processing timeline to get PPR. And then some people have received their PPR within 2-3 months of getting their ITA.

None of us know how IRCC decides to process all these applications, and if anyone is getting preference. Also, visa offices around the world are in different states of being open. Unfortunately nothing is clear at present for timelines.

 

[Islander216]

It also depends on the complexity of your application especially travel, work and address history.

And the backlog at your visa office.

 

[jrossi]

Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.

On the previous draw there was 4764 candidates in the 471-600 range. I usually don't count PNPs, since the number is pretty random... sometimes we have draws with 200 PNPs, and in other occasions, 1000 PNPs. So, it's impossible to measure/predict the influx of candidates in the 600-1200 range.
The current draw showed a 2174 figure, so:

2174-(4764-(5,000-348)) = 2062 entered the pool in the 7 day period = 294 candidates/day
(Remember that the data showed on IRCC website is usually 2 days before the draw, so all the math should take the reference date in consideration for the interval period, not the actual date of the draw)

I just realized I was missing the (-348) in the calculation, since I was not taking away the PNPs invitations. By recalculating, these are the numbers from the previous draws:

Draw	Interval	ITAs	CRS	471-600	600-1200	RATE (candidates/day)
163	14	4200	472	4946	331	217
164	14	4200	471	3950	342	205
165	14	4500	471	3785	454	264
166	23	4500	478	5850	998	266
167	12	5000	472	4764	348	201
168	7	5000	469	2174	185	295

So, with that adjusted number, we can do an estimate: 14 days * 295 = 4130 candidates added in the 471-600 range for the next draw + PNPs... so we're probably talking around 4500-4600 candidates, which would allow for a -500 reduction in the 461-470 range. Which, currently has around 10,000 candidates.
Sure, we might see a drop in that rate, just like we saw on draw 167. But looking into the past 6 draws, it clearly indicates a trend upwards instead of downwards. That number could also easily get reduced if IELTS centres start to close again due to return of lockdowns.

Again, not my opinion, just what the numbers are showing. I kept waiting for my ITA for almost 1 entire year, and I know how stressful it is. But, I hate to be the kind of "don't worry, I'll get your ITA sitting at 461" guy. I'll always try to be show people that EE is a really hard competition, and those who sit still waiting for a miracle probably won't make it.

If someone find an error on my numbers, please point out so that I can adjust my table.