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Ray of Hope - 78th Draw

Kakkarot

Full Member
Jul 29, 2017
47
83
India
Hello forum members,
Although it's very disheartening to see the recent draw don't lose your hope. There are a few things i observed with these recent trends
1. On November last year the number of ITA's issued was the same as of this year and it gradually increased and got into full phase in the first quarter of this year. I believe the same pattern will repeat.
2. CIC announced the new timestamp based system on June but it came into effect on November although the timeframe to develop the software should be considered, there are chances that they wanted to implement it with the fresh new yearly quota
3. Also last year they wanted to issue the leftover quotas which they had in the first two quaters of 2016 so third quater seen a bump in the ITA numbers. But this year the first two quaters they issued higher invites and a gradual decrease in the third quarter.
4. The last PNP and FSTW only draw might be a hint to know that the last years quota is exhausted and the new quota is starting
5. Also OINP staffs said that they will issue new NOI's based on next year's quota when they reopen later this year if this year's quota is over. High chànces that CIC also follows such trend.

May be CIC dont want scores to drop below 410 so congesting the pool for a while is the only way to fix the threshold. Also to note this new timestamp system is an advantage as CIC usually reduces or increases invites by a 100 to get a roundoff score, so early profile creaters will benefit from it, those at 432 will know its advantages better. I assume on November 2k ITAs will continue although we have a biweekly draw and from December the raise in ITAs issued will be high

All these stated above might go wrong as well these are just my two cents. But whatever happens the quota has seen a slight increase so more ITAs will follow sooner or later. Stay strong ..God bless us all..
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
And cut off page link shows, those will have more point than cutoff will be in the pool :( , they haven't updated the page yet.. will confuse a lot of people..

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=1318&top=29#CRS

Rank CRS Profile submission
(Date and time)
Status
3498 422 October 14, 2016 at 20:40:56 Invited
3499 422 February 5, 2017 at 11:32:01 Invited
3500 422 March 27, 2017 at 08:12:23 Invited
3501 422 March 27, 2017 at 9:54:39 Still in the pool
3502 423 June 3, 2017 at 22:57:12 Still in the pool
The example is wrong. CIC is human!
Read 421 instead of 423, then the example would make sense!
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
Loosing all hope..profile was about to expire today so created a new one yesterday...
So recent date and time..less and least chances :(
New express entry profile doesn't matter unless you end up with a CRS same as that of the draw cut off!
 
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abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
tie breaking rule only if your CRS score is same as Cut off.. if you are above, then no need to worry..
but yes, when the score is same , it is very frustrating wait , to know whether you are in the ITA pick or not..
The date and time is mentioned for the tie breaking rule on the draw announcement page. If your profile (with exactly same CRS as the cut off) is created on or before the date/time mentioned, then you get ITA. If not, you don't get ITA.
 
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abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
it is very surprise that since May we haven't seen CRS drop below 430 but still there are only 3241 candidates on 421-430 range and only 3946 from 411-420 range. This is quite less compare to previous years and less people being added every month.

these ranges will be flushed away quickly from January if CIC will issue more ITAs.

So I m hoping we will be seeing lowest CRS ever in next year.
seniors Kindly correct me if I m wrong.
Those at 401-410, 411-420 and 421-430 are jumping to higher scores with better IELTS scores. That's why the cumulative addition of applicants to these ranges is less.
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
i think tie breaking is not for the CRS score.... but its for the guys in the pool.
so its not for the cutoff score ....
i think all the guys in the pool will be compared along with there timestamp value.

Hope am wrong and the tie breaker only applies for guys on the cutoff value.
any thoughts please???
Yes, you are right the ranking is done for all the applicants in the pool. Whenever more than 1 applicant is stuck on the same CRS (tie situation), the applicant with the oldest profile among them is ranked highest among the tied folks.

But it does not matter unless your CRS matches with the CRS cut off for a draw.

Let's assume, there were 3 applicants on CRS 475 with ranks 1801, 1802 and 1803 before today's draw. They would be ranked as below based on the profile creation date:
1801 - CRS 475 - Sep 5, 2017
1802 - CRS 475 - Oct 5, 2017
1803 - CRS 475 - Nov 5, 2017

As 2000 applicants were selected, all 3 applicants get ITA. The ranking order is irrelevant for all the above 3 applicants as all 3 get ITA.
 

gotodxb

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2017
327
172
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2171
Job Offer........
Yes
AOR Received.
30-08-2017
Passport Req..
29-09-2017
LANDED..........
25-10-2017
The example is wrong. CIC is human!
Read 421 instead of 423, then the example would make sense!
buddy.. i know that and can read to interpret.. ;) it is to highlight for other new members..

and by the way, how about your CRS analysis, anymore predictions for the year ?
 
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abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
buddy.. i know that and can read to interpret.. ;) it is to highlight for other new members..

and by the way, how about your CRS analysis, anymore predictions for the year ?
Yes, predictions will keep coming on the draw dates!
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,619
3,036
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
So last week when OINP reopened I shared in the ROH 77th that I had reservations creating a new profile and honestly the tie breaking rule that was announced earlier this year was one of my biggest deterrent. Luckily I followed my gut and left the profile as is because I was following the thread and noticed NO one indicated that they got a NO I from Ontario except one.......now with this rule now being highlighted I'm kinda happy I didn't withdraw and recreate but puts most of us in a dilemma bc if OINP reopens and starts issuing NO I some of us may be forced to do so potentially putting us in an adverse position.as far as getting a direct ITA is concerned.

Anyhow I think I may need to take some time out from the thread. Heightened anxiety and a plethora of adverse personal issues not the best combo for my mental health. Cic playing with my emotions too much and this wait feels like forever .........from Feb 2016 to now!

Guys let's keep the optimism alive though I know it's easier said than done!

"I could really use a wish right now"
You have to be extremely unlucky to miss out on an ITA using the tie breaking rule.

Let's assume, CIC had started the rule from Jan 1, 2017.

Then as of today, only folks who missed out on the below 5 draws (out of 23 non program specific draws) in 2017 would be affected by the tie breaking rule:
Draw 65 - May 31 - CRS 413
Draw 69 - Aug 09 - CRS 433
Draw 72 - Sep 20 - CRS 433
Draw 74 - Oct 18 - CRS 436
Draw 77 - Nov 08 - CRS 458

As all the remaining draws had a future draw with a lesser CRS cut off so that those who missed an ITA due to the tie breaking rule would have got an ITA in one of the future draws unless their CRS decreased before a future draw with lesser cut off.

Also, if you want a lesser risky solution, then do the following:
I see that your CRS is 419, so now is the right time to recreate profile because based on the current trends even if the cut off reaches 419 it would take atleast 3-4 months to do so. So by the time the cut off reaches your CRS you would still have a 3-4 month old profile and not a recent one which brings down the risk levels drastically.

I can very well understand folks stuck at 431 or 432 not recreating their profiles as they are on the borderline for a long time.
 
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