Ray of Hope - 71st Draw!

[Jeegaar]

I realy don't know what to do at 418

My situation is the same. Can anyone from the thread comment on our situation ? With 418, will we ever be able to get an invite in this couple of months ?

 

[abhishek_89]

@abhishek_89 u got half of the things right buddy... Number of ITA's were just 1 short of what u actually predicted.... Just missed the CRS this time.... Do something with ur magic wand and make another prediction,,,,
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-im...f-hope-70th-draw.511040/page-132#post-6299892

Number of ITAs is not part of my prediction! Though that is just 1 less than my prediction whereas the cut off is 3 more than my prediction!!

 

[qwerty69]

Haven't got myself to calculate projections again, it makes me so anxious.
But I agree with your points.

And, because this is a RoH thread, we just need to know what to hope for.
This time, we need to wish for the ITAs to be closer to 4,000 once again.
If 300k is indeed the baseline for inmigration, then this decreased number of ITAs must be temporal. It doesn't make sense to me to invite such a large number of people some months, just lower the invitations a 20% afterwards.

Anyways, come on people, new thread, new hopes.

I always advice to do everything you can to raise your CRS. Maybe this could be your chance to learn french, maybe the ones who haven't maxed out their IELTS could do so. Be creative and find ways for you to get more chances to get to your goal and get this golden ticket, I mean, this golden ITA.

I agree with you. It doesn't make sense and I believe that the number of ITAs will increase again and this is just temporal.

 

[abhishek_89]

Agreed. @abhishek_89 has been spot on with his predictions. Wonder what he has to say about the upcoming draw.

Future looks bleak with 3000 ITAs and 2 week gap draws!
The need of the hour is 1 week gap draws and maybe 3800+ ITAs!!

 

[abhishek_89]

@abhishek_89 yes do more now plz.....

Will continue doing the predictions..will calibrate it based on the latest intake trends.

 

[Master7]

Sitting at CRS 432! But with IELTS expiring on October 02, 2017. I need a miracle!

 

[Option Paralysis]

Anyone considering crossing into Quebec on foot at this point?

 

[sysadmin141]

I observed in the last thread that the huge number of candidates filling the pool with very impressive IELTS results and high CRS scores was too significant to ignore. Where's the ray of hope for my meagre 424?

 

[Biryani]

Do you guys think there are any chances of a draw happening on the 30th?

 

[Master7]

Do you guys think there are any chances of a draw happening on the 30th?

If there is something I have learned from this forum and CIC is that ANYTHING goes, ANYTHING can happen for better or worse. So yes, it is totally possible. In fact, I have a gut feeling it will happen.

 

[gurpreet.ts]

Got my ITA. Thanks a lot everyone for the wonderful support. Good luck to all

 

[Vinodivya]

Hello all, how much time it takes to get the ITA notification in CIC profile ?

I have score of 434 but have not received the ITA as yet even after draw has taken place and last cut off is 434 only

 

[Uhuumm]

427 here. Hopeful and ready for next draw, the draw after or whichever draw gets us in.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Ok guys, I'll come with the "bad" news....

It seems that ~3,000 ITAs per draw is the new target for now, and this isn't good. I had projected 431 +/-3 with 3,200 ITAs. Here are a couple points:

• While overall there's a reduction in the rate of new profiles, the rate for new profiles over 430 is increasing, with an unexpected increase in the range of 431-440 (the rate here doubled).
• The range over 600 increased a bit, but this is expected as more people are taking the PNP route.
• The rate of new profiles for all ranges under 430 decreased, which is good, but doesn't help the score.

But the bad thing is the 3,000 ITAs. With 3,200 we were barely over the minimum number of ITAs needed to keep a slow decrease of the score over the next few months, but 3,000 isn't enough. We have on average more than 215 new profiles per day over 430, and that will consume the 3,000 ITAs every two weeks. If the draws keep happening every two weeks and the number of ITAs is 3,000 or less, the score won't go below 430.

So here are the projections with 3,000 ITAs:

• August 30: ~3000 ITAs - 428 +/-1
• September 6: ~3000 ITAs - 436 +/- 2
• September 13: ~3000 ITAs - 445 +/-4

Sadly, we need at least one of these things to happen to lower the score:

• A reduction in the rate of new profiles over 430.
• An increase in the number of ITAs per draw, over 3200 at least.
• Back to back draws.

The first one doesn't help too much in the short term, but #2 and #3 can lower the score quickly.

If you have a NOI from Ontario, my suggestion is that you take that route when the stream re-opens. At the moment (under actual circumstances), is the best route.

Your analysis seems well thought out. I don't think we are going to see an increase in the number of ITAs in the next month or two unless a whole lot of people start declining them.

With the arrival of my study permit approval last night, we are ready to embark on the increasing points plan. That should get the NOI. But still going to work on french because that always seems to be in demand.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Sitting at CRS 432! But with IELTS expiring on October 02, 2017. I need a miracle!

I think you have hope. But to be safe, you should schedule an IELTS with results arriving before October 2.