Ray of hope 58th draw?

[grapehair]

We can't afford another jump in CRS lol

 

[last_try]

Last yr they said 50% will come from EE. In 2017 they said majority of them will come from EE means 80-85%. With your analysis 33,782 ITAs issued in 2016 and mind you in 6-7 months from april to october the ITAs were 750 because of refugees so take it into account as well.

So now with no refugees 30% increment in ITAs because of backlog decreased. and 6-7K increase in quota we can assume 50% increase of 33,782 so we can assume approx 50K ITAs this yr.

With so much ITAs come so much decline as lots of people make 2 profiles for husband and wife and decline ITA from 1 account and fake profiles were also set up so if we consider rejection at 20% of ITAs it means approx 60K ITAs will be issued.

Considering no more draws in march the current ITAs stand up to 24,652. It means around 35.5K remaining for 9 months. It means around 2000 ITAs on avg per draw which is still a good number to keep this below 450.

great.. thanks for the detailed analysis.

 

[Alexios07]

Considering no more draws in march the current ITAs stand up to 24,652. It means around 35.5K remaining for 9 months. It means around 2000 ITAs on avg per draw which is still a good number to keep this below 450.

I could agree on the 2000 ITAs/draw, but I'm not sure if the crs will stay below 450. As many former int'l students now have extra points for their diplomas and degrees, so a typical former int'l student with a bachelor degree, one year Canadian work exp and clb 8 used to have only 415 CRS, now jumps to 445.

Also remember that another factor that influences the cut-off score is the time period between two draws. If IRCC does two draws like this March, one at the beginning of the month and the other at the end, instead of bi-weekly, more applicants with high CRS will fill the pool -> cut off score will be higher.

 

[MattyTj]

We can't afford another jump in CRS lol

Agreed! I'm not ready to get pessimistic quite yet! This is a ray of hope thread! If we know anything, we know that things are unpredictable in this process. I'm trying my best to stay hopeful. In the end, I think the YouTube video of the IRCC official speaking from last year gives me hope for an ITA!

 

[tj4canada]

Also remember that another factor that influences the cut-off score is the time period between two draws. If IRCC does two draws like this March, one at the beginning of the month and the other at the end, instead of bi-weekly, more applicants with high CRS will fill the pool -> cut off score will be higher.

Although this may appear to be true, the linear regression from December until now did not support that.

 

[fatani]

I could agree on the 2000 ITAs/draw, but I'm not sure if the crs will stay below 450. As many former int'l students now have extra points for their diplomas and degrees, so a typical former int'l student with a bachelor degree, one year Canadian work exp and clb 8 used to have only 415 CRS, now jumps to 445.

Also remember that another factor that influences the cut-off score is the time period between two draws. If IRCC does two draws like this March, one at the beginning of the month and the other at the end, instead of bi-weekly, more applicants with high CRS will fill the pool -> cut off score will be higher.

You have not included PNPs as well which takes 33% of EE.

 

[fatani]

I could agree on the 2000 ITAs/draw, but I'm not sure if the crs will stay below 450. As many former int'l students now have extra points for their diplomas and degrees, so a typical former int'l student with a bachelor degree, one year Canadian work exp and clb 8 used to have only 415 CRS, now jumps to 445.

Also remember that another factor that influences the cut-off score is the time period between two draws. If IRCC does two draws like this March, one at the beginning of the month and the other at the end, instead of bi-weekly, more applicants with high CRS will fill the pool -> cut off score will be higher.

If you include PNP ITAs then the average ITAs can go upto 2800 per draw. Which means some draws might have 2500 ITAs in mid yr which can lead the scores to 440-450 range then and might get it above 450 for 2-3 draws. But at the end ITAs can again increase to 3000 on avg per draw so the scores will again drop in the region of 425-450.

The pool is very competitive we cant predict there is a time when if you draw 4000 the scores will go up because lots of people enter for eg people who increased language scores completed studies completed work exp high number of PNPs.

And then there is a time that even if you draw 2000 score will fall so it is according to the season like in most unis there is a graduation time you can see lots of students coming with experience so we never know.

 

[canedapr]

God only knows what CIC has in mind. Score increase or decrease, I just hope that all of us should be able to meet our goal to get PR. Let's all try to increase our scores by some more efforts. Let us not think that it will take time to increase score as once u decide, time flies. Let's work towards job offers......
All the best to all. Hope there is a big drop in CRS in coming draw .

 

[shrinivaskk]

WES Delay -
I got my UK MBA validated by WES in 3 days.
But my wife's India Bachelors is still in 'Eval in progress' from past 40 days.
Both have submitted the documents and application on same day.

My current points are 438 and with my wife's ECA, it would go to 446. (I would have got my ITA in last round).

Is WES delaying ECA deliberately? Or they playing hand-in-glove with IRCC to make sure points go up?

Quite frustrating as WES is not responding even after multiple followups and tweets.

Thanks for any directions/suggestions.

 

[canadacanada17]

WES Delay -
I got my UK MBA validated by WES in 3 days.
But my wife's India Bachelors is still in 'Eval in progress' from past 40 days.
Both have submitted the documents and application on same day.

My current points are 438 and with my wife's ECA, it would go to 446. (I would have got my ITA in last round).

Is WES delaying ECA deliberately? Or they playing hand-in-glove with IRCC to make sure points go up?

Quite frustrating as WES is not responding even after multiple followups and tweets.

Thanks for any directions/suggestions.

I kept calling them....don't worry, be persistent.

 

[patN]

I would like to say THANK YOU to ALL the members for doing all the different types of calculations and creating the spread sheet to predict what will be the CRS going forward.

But looking at this month wherein not just the CRS went up but also the draw day has been changed and now we don't even know on which day the next draw will happen.

So if these basic things are uncertain then I don't think there is any point in working on data of past years to predict the future.

For me the only thing that matters is CRS 3000+ and every 15 days draw. If this happens I am sure CRS will come down steadily. Yes there may be hiccups in between like last draw but ultimately scores will drop provided above 2 criteria's are maintained.

I think the next 2 draws will clear the picture more.

 

[preet14]

As per the above data.
411-415: 1 persons
431-435: 13 persons
416-420 : 3 persons
421-425 : 6 persons
426-430: 10 persons
436-440: 8 persons
Above 440 : 2 persons
Crs not mentioned: 23 persons

i am @ 417.

 

[preet14]

If there is a back to back draw - on March 31, then the score may fall by 9 to 10 - 431 looks approaching. However, if the draw goes to April 5, then the score may touch 434 (+/- 2)

but guys i think chances of back to back draw are very few. i guess next draw will be next week CRS somewhere around 435. but you never know with CIC. they may surprise us.

 

[preet14]

so unfair,i wish ircc can do something abt this.

this is so so so unfair. we have worked so hard to get this genuine score and these people are creating problems for us.

 

[Muhammad.fahad]

Any one here from ACCA side, I need some information .