I am worried about the next election in Quebec. Meaning new government, new rules, new regulation especially in immigration. I want to share this latest news from all of you and share your opinion because it will effect also our ongoing application in the future....
MONTREAL — Quebec separatists could win in next month's election and form a government but still fail in their ultimate quest for the province's independence from the rest of Canada, say analysts.
Beleaguered Quebec Premier Jean Charest on Wednesday called snap elections for Sept. 4, opening the door for the separatists' possible return to power in Canada's mostly French-speaking province.
The elections come against the backdrop of social unrest in Quebec, where students since February have challenged government plans to hike university fees, resulting in violent street protests and hundreds of arrests.
Alain Gagnon, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Quebec and Canadian Studies at the Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM), predicted a muddy, rather than clear-cut result.
“A Liberal or Parti Quebecois minority government is the most likely outcome,” he said.
Charest, a three-term premier who is also facing a corruption scandal, has been lumbered with pressure from Labor groups and other opponents of the ruling Liberal Party who at times have joined forces with the students.
Yves Belanger, a political science professor at UQAM, suggested that the backlash against Charest could result in the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) winning enough seats to form a majority government.
He reckons, however, that this would require that an upstart third party, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), which has attracted disenchanted federalists and separatists, does not siphon too much PQ support.
In Quebec's first past the post electoral system, just a few percentage points in support can translate into 10 to 15 seats won out of a 125 total in the national assembly, and determine the election outcome.
Despite Charest's vigorous and aggressive start to the race, touting his Liberals' strong economic record and assailing his rivals' platforms, Belanger believes that Liberal insiders fear the party will lose.
And the decision of several ministers in Charest's government not to stand in the election indicates that the party is “struggling to renew itself” after nine years in power.
“I don't think the Liberals are betting on a win, but rather are hoping to avoid being completely brushed aside,” Belanger said.
As for the cause of Quebec independence, the Parti Quebecois has vowed to move slowly, saying that if it wins the election it will seek to wrest new powers from the federal government in Ottawa.
Any failure could be used to bolster its separatist agenda. But observers do not expect a rush to a third referendum on sovereignty under a PQ banner.
Quebec twice rejected independence from the rest of Canada in referendums in 1980 and 1995, but only by a narrow margin last time.
A PQ win is necessary for holding a third referendum, but does not mean a referendum is “inevitable” under the PQ, said Gagnon.
Rather he expects to see a “public consultation” on “maximum decentralization” of powers from Ottawa to Quebec.
UQAM political philosopher Jean-Marc Piotte, however, was skeptical, noting that the separatists had failed to bolster their position for an independent Quebec since the last two kicks at the can.
According to Belanger, if the PQ returns to power, “some of its members will seek to push independence to the frontburner and for a third referendum,” but he is not certain the hardcore separatists within the party would succeed.
“Quebecers don't want to hear any more about referendums and independence,” which PQ leader Pauline Marois understands far too well and rarely brings it up except on the sidelines of the election campaign, he said.
All three pundits said Charest timed the election shrewdly to force voters to consider the student unrest of recent months in their decision.
A majority agree with Charest on the need to raise student fees to help rein in a deficit, according to polls. So if the students return to the streets to demonstrate they risk paradoxically bolstering the Liberals.
Gagnon, Piotte and Belanger also said that the election timing allows the Liberals to avoid possible damaging revelations when a commission of inquiry on alleged corruption in the construction industry resumes hearings mid-September.
dont panic, it is definitely normal,
