Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[rcd47]

With the current trend... Can the score be in 350-370 range by Aug?

 

[thisworks]

#ITAs will continue to be in the 3600-3999 range, they want to keep it close to 3600

But why do you think ITAs will hover in that range rather than going down? If 70k ITA are to be issued, wont the # of ITAs taper off to half that level over the next few months?

 

[picklee]

But why do you think ITAs will hover in that range rather than going down? If 70k ITA are to be issued, wont the # of ITAs taper off to half that level over the next few months?

Yes. I doubt IRCC will continue to issue these numbers of ITAs consistently. There are quotas, after all. This is another good reason to not see scores go below 400 this year.

 

[M DEV]

Hey guys I'm at 409..What r my chances for getting the invitations...

 

[Rawee]

I seriously doubt crs touching 410, with ITA Quota diminishing quickly and also CIC doesn't want to to be loggerheads with OINP.

Therefore it's rare to have a draw next week, hope I'll be wrong.

 

[Rawee]

Hey guys I'm at 409..What r my chances for getting the invitations...

If draw happens next week you are in

 

[dannyhcean]

CRS 406...this is getting really nervous for me now.

 

[Immime2017]

But why do you think ITAs will hover in that range rather than going down? If 70k ITA are to be issued, wont the # of ITAs taper off to half that level over the next few months?

I think it will stay in that range for the next few rounds, then it will taper off, although I don't think it will go much lower. I think they will issue ~90k ITAs this year.

 

[Immime2017]

With the current trend... Can the score be in 350-370 range by Aug?

That's very unlikely.

 

[jackdawn]

I seriously doubt crs touching 410, with ITA Quota diminishing quickly and also CIC doesn't want to to be loggerheads with OINP.

Therefore it's rare to have a draw next week, hope I'll be wrong.

Where do u derive this logic of CIC and ONIP being at logger heads?

scores will go down and up based on the dynamics of the pool which is purely based on number of people getting on board and the scores they carry.

 

[bhavcaluk]

In all above posts we have discussed about number of ITA .Please remember one ITA is equal to about 2 immigrants.So to reach a quota of 1,00,000 iimigrants under express entry they need to issue 50000 ITA this year only.

 

[Immime2017]

In all above posts we have discussed about number of ITA .Please remember one ITA is equal to about 2 immigrants.So to reach a quota of 1,00,000 iimigrants under express entry they need to issue 50000 ITA this year only.

Not necessarily, not all ITA recipients convert, some reject, some don't have valid information, etc... so to get their ~ 70K they need to issue around 90k ITAs, which is what they are going to do this year. Look at 2015 and 2016 ratios for number of ITAs to # of people applying.

 

[bhavcaluk]

ITA is issued to a applicant and one applicant is one immigrant if unmarried,2 immigrants if with spouse and 3 immigrants wirh spouse and 1 child and so on.
So one ITA has 2 immigrants on an average
So for 70K immigrants they shall need say 40k ITA ( successful ITA converted in eApr for exprress entry)
There is PNP qouta of 50K immigrants. Assuming 50 peecent nomination is through express entry.another 12500 ITA is expected for PNP linked to express entry

 

[pk saini]

ITA is issued to a applicant and one applicant is one immigrant if unmarried,2 immigrants if with spouse and 3 immigrants wirh spouse and 1 child and so on.
So one ITA has 2 immigrants on an average
So for 70K immigrants they shall need say 40k ITA ( successful ITA converted in eApr for exprress entry)
There is PNP qouta of 50K immigrants. Assuming 50 peecent nomination is through express entry.another 12500 ITA is expected for PNP linked to express entry

I am planning to apply after October. Any guesses what will be the cut off? I am at 436.

 

[iamxty]

Hey guys I'm at 409..What r my chances for getting the invitations...

Welcome to the club! 63rd draw is ours