Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[thisworks]

You guys are saying that the number of ITA each round (about 3500 ITA) will continue until year end ?

I doubt so.

I will just add what I have pointed out previously.

The numbers (and we have 2.5 years of data now) do not support 90k ITAs being issued this year.

so @picklee what is your opinion on this? Will ITAs continue at this pace, or will they eventually slow down, or worse still - stop completely ?

 

[picklee]

so @picklee what is your opinion on this? Will ITAs continue at this pace, or will they eventually slow down, or worse still - stop completely ?

I think it's very unlikely that IRCC will stop issuing ITAs.

It is more likely that ITAs will continue at the same pace or decline steadily as IRCC becomes more confident in the number of landed PRs. The latter seems most logical to me.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, I showed that rates of ITAs in 2016 and 2017 averaged between 3300-3900 per draw (95% confidence). We have no way of knowing how many draws there will be or how often they will occur. The 2017 quotas and year-to-date ITAs give us some hints.

In this thread and elsewhere, we have hypothesized the number of ITAs to meet to quotas for this year to be between 68-90k. That is, at least 68k and no more than 90k. Minus 43,456 ITAs issued to-date leaves 25-47k ITAs to be issued.

With the rates of ITAs quoted above, that's somewhere between 7-14 draws (3300 per draw) and 6-12 draws (3900 per draw). So in the best case, average 3300 ITAs per draw until mid-December, assuming biweekly draws. In the worst case, the draws become smaller (under 3000) and/or longer (3 weeks) starting sometime in July.

I would expect CRS score to rise towards the end of the year. Even in the best case scenario above, I think applicants at the end of the year will be less competitive than applicants at the beginning of the year. IRCC has its own tolerance of uncertainty (i.e. meeting the quotas), which necessarily diminishes towards the end of the year when most applications have been finalized and they have a better idea of how many ITAs to issue.

 

[pacificislander]

I think it's very unlikely that IRCC will stop issuing ITAs.

It is more likely that ITAs will continue at the same pace or decline steadily as IRCC becomes more confident in the number of landed PRs. The latter seems most logical to me.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, I showed that rates of ITAs in 2016 and 2017 averaged between 3300-3900 per draw (95% confidence). We have no way of knowing how many draws there will be or how often they will occur. The 2017 quotas and year-to-date ITAs give us some hints.

In this thread and elsewhere, we have hypothesized the number of ITAs to meet to quotas for this year to be between 68-90k. That is, at least 68k and no more than 90k. Minus 43,456 ITAs issued to-date leaves 25-47k ITAs to be issued.

With the rates of ITAs quoted above, that's somewhere between 7-14 draws (3300 per draw) and 6-12 draws (3900 per draw). So in the best case, average 3300 ITAs per draw until mid-December, assuming biweekly draws. In the worst case, the draws become smaller (under 3000) and/or longer (3 weeks) starting sometime in July.

I would expect CRS score to rise towards the end of the year. Even in the best case scenario above, I think applicants at the end of the year will be less competitive than applicants at the beginning of the year. IRCC has its own tolerance of uncertainty (i.e. meeting the quotas), which necessarily diminishes towards the end of the year when most applications have been finalized and they have a better idea of how many ITAs to issue.

Is the 70k+ quota for 2017 accounts for the ITAs only or the total number of immigrants (including the PA and his dependents)?

 

[Immime2017]

You guys are saying that the number of ITA each round (about 3500 ITA) will continue until year end ?

That would be my guess.

 

[picklee]

Is the 70k+ quota for 2017 accounts for the ITAs only or the total number of immigrants (including the PA and his dependents)?

Quota is for landed immigrants, PAs and dependents. The quotas are actually expressed in terms of a range per program (CEC, FSW, FST, and PNP).

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/analysis-of-express-entry-statistics.476369/

 

[thisworks]

I think it's very unlikely that IRCC will stop issuing ITAs. It is more likely that ITAs will continue at the same pace or decline steadily as IRCC becomes more confident in the number of landed PRs. The latter seems most logical to me.

With the rates of ITAs quoted above, that's somewhere between 7-14 draws (3300 per draw) and 6-12 draws (3900 per draw). So in the best case, average 3300 ITAs per draw until mid-December, assuming biweekly draws. In the worst case, the draws become smaller (under 3000) and/or longer (3 weeks) starting sometime in July. I would expect CRS score to rise towards the end of the year.

That is an example of very strong logic right there, which relies on the premise ( if I remember correctly ) of 1.07 ITAs per landed PR. If that premise holds true, it is difficult to negate your conclusions - and it will be roughly in line with @Immime2017 projections - that IRCC will issue 3000+ ITAs every 2-3 weeks until the end of this year. However, if IRCC does issue 3000+ ITAs every two weeks until the end of this year, Immime2017's first post of steadily declining scores comes into play, and then there is a chance of CRS falling below 400.

To sum up, IF 3000+ ITA every 2 weeks THEN 'good chance of CRS falling below 400' ELSE ' CRS stabilizes in 410 - 450 range'

 

[monavy]

That is an example of very strong logic right there, which relies on the premise ( if I remember correctly ) of 1.07 ITAs per landed PR. If that premise holds true, it is difficult to negate your conclusions - and it will be roughly in line with @Immime2017 projections - that IRCC will issue 3000+ ITAs every 2-3 weeks until the end of this year. However, if IRCC does issue 3000+ ITAs every two weeks until the end of this year, Immime2017's first post of steadily declining scores comes into play, and then there is a chance of CRS falling below 400.

To sum up, IF 3000+ ITA every 2 weeks THEN 'good chance of CRS falling below 400' ELSE ' CRS stabilizes in 410 - 450 range'

every draw reduces pool numbers above 400 by about 1000 irrespective of the CRS score increasing or decreasing.
This means 400 is just there for another 3-4 draws. it has to break.

 

[picklee]

every draw reduces pool numbers above 400 by about 1000 irrespective of the CRS score increasing or decreasing.

I think the point being made was that CRS scores will necessarily drop as long as there is a net loss of profiles from the pool.

 

[Immime2017]

It's time for prediction for tomorrow's round:
If the round is tomorrow, the score will be 409 (+/-2)

 

[ivancabrer]

It's time for prediction for tomorrow's round:
If the round is tomorrow, the score will be 409 (+/-2)

Why so high?
Given your projections, I guess you would have said 407(+/-2), and if next week 410(+/-2).
Me beign at 412 makes my guess extremely biased, so I want to hear your point of view as to why you think 409 if tomorrow.

 

[Immime2017]

Why so high?
Given your projections, I guess you would have said 407(+/-2), and if next week 410(+/-2).
Me beign at 412 makes my guess extremely biased, so I want to hear your point of view as to why you think 409 if tomorrow.

the reason is that the rate of incoming people into the pool has increased, and I am adjusting my projections accordingly, my current best conservative estimate on average number of candidates added daily with score over 401 is 245.

Here is my math:
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 12th = 7,952
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 17th = 7,952 - 3,678 = 4,274
# candidate added over 12 days since May 12th = 245 * 12 = 2,940
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 24th before the round = 4,274 + 2,940 = 7,214
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 24th after a potential round of approximately 3600 candidates = 7,214 - 3,600 = 3,614
# of candidates in the 401-410 range in the last couple of rounds ~= 3990
Since all that's left over 401 is 3614 candidates, which is about 90% of the # candidates in the 401-410 range, assuming equal distribution over the 10 points, then the score will be around 409

 

[ivancabrer]

the reason is that the rate of incoming people into the pool has increased, and I am adjusting my projections accordingly, my current best conservative estimate on average number of candidates added daily with score over 401 is 245.

Here is my math:
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 12th = 7,952
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 17th = 7,952 - 3,678 = 4,274
# candidate added over 12 days since May 12th = 245 * 12 = 2,940
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 24th before the round = 4,274 + 2,940 = 7,214
# of candidates with 401+ score on May 24th after a potential round of approximately 3600 candidates = 7,214 - 3,600 = 3,614
# of candidates in the 401-410 range in the last couple of rounds ~= 3990
Since all that's left over 401 is 3614 candidates, which is about 90% of the # candidates in the 401-410 range, assuming equal distribution over the 10 points, then the score will be around 409

Oh, I was hoping that the increase in people entering the pool was slower.
But you provide solid info.
Anyway, you know in the beginning of May there's always an increase in numbers. So I'll be hoping for a decrease in new entries this period .
There's nothing more we can do right but hope and be positive.

 

[Adiele]

Please

It's time for prediction for tomorrow's round:
If the round is tomorrow, the score will be 409 (
is this

It's time for prediction for tomorrow's round:
If the round is tomorrow, the score will be 409 (+/-2)

Is this based on the pre June 6th or post June 6th rules?

 

[Adiele]

It's time for prediction for tomorrow's round:
If the round is tomorrow, the score will be 409 (+/-2)

Is this based on the pre June 6th or post June 6th rules?

 

[Immime2017]

Is this based on the pre June 6th or post June 6th rules?

If it's tomorrow then by default it's the pre-June 6th rules.