Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[Immime2017]

I think EE should just have a twitter account where they announce that a new round has been published, or email notifications or something.

 

[Alexios07]

I understand your point of view, because I used to think like that many years ago.
However, I'm 31 years old now, and I have more than 10 years of experience. I can tell you, experience weights a lot, at least in management and entrepreneurship. You can read what you want and even make a Ph.D if you want to. But the practical knowledge you gaint through your professional exercise has a lot of weight. It's not the same 3 years of experience than 10 years of it. Also, at least for me, I'm way more grounded at my age than what I was 10 years ago. So you should take that into consideration as well.

Like _Harry_ said, your experience is non-canadian work exp which doesn't have much weight here in Canada. This is the reason why many newcomers with Master's and PhD have had a very hard time to land a stable job after their landings.

 

[Immime2017]

Apparently Ontario issued some invitations yesterday, given that and the fact that they are doing a two week wait until the next invite, I think the score will not go down next round. However, I am optimistic that they will do a follow up round only one week afterwards and that will go down to the 40x level!

 

[Wandering Mind]

I think EE should just have a twitter account where they announce that a new round has been published, or email notifications or something.

That would make our lives so much easier!

 

[Wandering Mind]

Apparently Ontario issued some invitations yesterday, given that and the fact that they are doing a two week wait until the next invite, I think the score will not go down next round. However, I am optimistic that they will do a follow up round only one week afterwards and that will go down to the 40x level!

Did they issue invitations or nominations?

 

[Immime2017]

Did they issue invitations or nominations?

I think nominations

 

[Wandering Mind]

I think nominations

Ah ok! Because some of us received invitations from Ontario last week.

 

[Immime2017]

If the draw is today -> CRS = 417 [+/-2]
They will also release stats for May 13th: # of candidates with CRS > 401 will be in this range 7400-7600

 

[Immime2017]

If the draw is today -> CRS = 417 [+/-2]
They will also release stats for May 13th: # of candidates with CRS > 401 will be in this range 7400-7600

Nice, my prediction was right!! Congrats to anyone who got in today, and let's hope the trend continues!

 

[Arod]

I know it´s probably too early to say, but, are there any predictions for November?

I expect my CRS to be about 370 by that time, but I´m thinking about re-taking the IELTS to reach 430 and be in safe zone. However, with the current trend I´m not sure how necessary will it be to take the test again and spend money if the score keeps going down.

 

[Alexios07]

I know it´s probably too early to say, but, are there any predictions for November?

I expect my CRS to be about 370 by that time, but I´m thinking about re-taking the IELTS to reach 430 and be in safe zone. However, with the current trend I´m not sure how necessary will it be to take the test again and spend money if the score keeps going down.

If I were you, I would definitely spend my time studying for the next IELTS test. Do not waste your time reading some random and, most of the time, useless analysis. Try your best and create an opportunity for yourself.

 

[Immime2017]

I know it´s probably too early to say, but, are there any predictions for November?

I expect my CRS to be about 370 by that time, but I´m thinking about re-taking the IELTS to reach 430 and be in safe zone. However, with the current trend I´m not sure how necessary will it be to take the test again and spend money if the score keeps going down.

Even though the score is decreasing, it will eventually stabilize, and I don't think it will reach 370 this year, so I would try to raise it to at least 390.

 

[thisworks]

Nice, my prediction was right!! Congrats to anyone who got in today, and let's hope the trend continues!

Immime2017, I read all your posts here, and I must say that I am very impressed by :

1) coming up with a statistical framework to predict a number rather than rely on hunches.
2) putting your reputation on stake by predicting a number more than a week in advance. ( this takes guts )
3) responding to those who doubted you with logical counter-arguments rather than emotional outbursts.

What is your forecast for the next round? When, #ITAs, CRS ?

 

[Immime2017]

Immime2017, I read all your posts here, and I must say that I am very impressed by :

1) coming up with a statistical framework to predict a number rather than rely on hunches.
2) putting your reputation on stake by predicting a number more than a week in advance. ( this takes guts )
3) responding to those who doubted you with logical counter-arguments rather than emotional outbursts.

What is your forecast for the next round? When, #ITAs, CRS ?

Thanks, I did it to have a peace of mind myself, but thought sharing it with everyone would help. It's in no way a perfect model, it has its flaws, but it's the best I can do without spending too much time on this and better than having nothing to go with.

For the next round:
When? this one I can't answer, however, since the last two rounds were after 14 days, the next round could potentially be after 7 days only.
If 24/May: 408 (+/-2)*
If 31/May: 412 (+/-2)*
#ITAs will continue to be in the 3600-3999 range, they want to keep it close to 3600

*(I need to do some more calculations to confirm, will update the numbers this weekend)

 

[karenn1617]

Thanks, I did it to have a peace of mind myself, but thought sharing it with everyone would help. It's in no way a perfect model, it has its flaws, but it's the best I can do without spending too much time on this and better than having nothing to go with.

For the next round:
When? this one I can't answer, however, since the last two rounds were after 14 days, the next round could potentially be after 7 days only.
If 24/May: 408 (+/-2)*
If 31/May: 412 (+/-2)*
#ITAs will continue to be in the 3600-3999 range, they want to keep it close to 3600

*(I need to do some more calculations to confirm, will update the numbers this weekend)

407 will be good. Standing at 407 from last two years. Plus now IELTS going to expire on October 8.

Really want the ITA within May itself.