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Where to invest in Real Estate

Lazymon82

Star Member
Jan 9, 2020
140
41
Montreal
Category........
QSW
With aid packages like CERB and others we haven't yet sewn the inpact of covid. Impacts on real estate are usually 6-12 months after an economic shock. You are saying the Quebec real eatate market is doing very well. It is only in Montreal where you see these large gains and the prices can be increasing just because of lack of supply which is what happened in Toronto for single family homes. There was pent up demand from people who had planned to move before covid or need more space now that they are working from home and there were very few listings. That pushed up prices so it is hard to determine why the pricea increased and whether increases would still be present with more listings. You are oversimplying the real eatate market and whether it is a good investment. There may be certain sectors and locations that are better investment options while still recognizing there is still huge economic uncertainty in the world so there is increased risk.
I'm oversimplifing the market analysis?

Your data is mostly from recessions that happened in the past on different circumstances and not because of a virus. So no one knows what exactly could happen or when it would happen because "this is something new and did not happen before". So your prediction is as good as mine at the most.

Which is why exactly i'm presenting stats from "NOW". Timing real estate market what ever be the situation will be a disaster for the investor. If your advice is to wait for the big DIP to invest then we just missed the BUS in MAY 2020. Accept the loss since May 2020 and invest NOW or else wait for another "VIRUS and associated recession".
 

KRP

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2012
814
165
Category........
FSW
LANDED..........
01/02/2011
I'm oversimplifing the market analysis?

Your data is mostly from recessions that happened in the past on different circumstances and not because of a virus. So no one knows what exactly could happen or when it would happen because "this is something new and did not happen before". So your prediction is as good as mine at the most.

Which is why exactly i'm presenting stats from "NOW". Timing real estate market what ever be the situation will be a disaster for the investor. If your advice is to wait for the big DIP to invest then we just missed the BUS in MAY 2020. Accept the loss since May 2020 and invest NOW or else wait for another "VIRUS and associated recession".
We are just beginning to see the second wave.
Its just Oct and we are seeing the spike.
Just think about the scenario by June 2021. Another 7 months its will bring 100% lockdown throughout the globe.
This will surely have great impact on the real estate sector. With job losses many will be looking out for a potential buyer to get away from their mortgage payments headache. Now the low ballers can definitely take advantage provided they have a good balance sheet. The bidding wars will surely come to an end in favour of the middle class. I pray to Almighty for this to happen as per my gut feeling.
 

Lazymon82

Star Member
Jan 9, 2020
140
41
Montreal
Category........
QSW
We are just beginning to see the second wave.
Its just Oct and we are seeing the spike.
Just think about the scenario by June 2021. Another 7 months its will bring 100% lockdown throughout the globe.
This will surely have great impact on the real estate sector. With job losses many will be looking out for a potential buyer to get away from their mortgage payments headache. Now the low ballers can definitely take advantage provided they have a good balance sheet. The bidding wars will surely come to an end in favour of the middle class. I pray to Almighty for this to happen as per my gut feeling.
This conversation was already done back in april 2020 except now its called "2nd wave".
 

Jancy

Star Member
Oct 18, 2017
148
43
We are just beginning to see the second wave.
Its just Oct and we are seeing the spike.
Just think about the scenario by June 2021. Another 7 months its will bring 100% lockdown throughout the globe.
This will surely have great impact on the real estate sector. With job losses many will be looking out for a potential buyer to get away from their mortgage payments headache. Now the low ballers can definitely take advantage provided they have a good balance sheet. The bidding wars will surely come to an end in favour of the middle class. I pray to Almighty for this to happen as per my gut feeling.
100% lockdown throughout the globe in 7 months!?
 

canuck78

VIP Member
Jun 18, 2017
30,399
6,654
I'm oversimplifing the market analysis?

Your data is mostly from recessions that happened in the past on different circumstances and not because of a virus. So no one knows what exactly could happen or when it would happen because "this is something new and did not happen before". So your prediction is as good as mine at the most.

Which is why exactly i'm presenting stats from "NOW". Timing real estate market what ever be the situation will be a disaster for the investor. If your advice is to wait for the big DIP to invest then we just missed the BUS in MAY 2020. Accept the loss since May 2020 and invest NOW or else wait for another "VIRUS and associated recession".
Your statement was that Quebec real estates stats were amazing and you were encouraging people to invest in Quebec. If you look at the stats there were increases in Montreal and the figures don’t include 4th quarter. The stats also show that there were a lot less transactions so supply and demand conditions are also pushing up prices. If is impossible to determine how much the lack of houses on the market lead to increases in pricing. The lack of supply had a big impact on the higher sale prices in Toronto. When it comes to economic shocks people use savings, receive government support, use mortgage deferral programs, etc. first and once savings have been depleted and programs end we will see the true picture so we haven’t see the real economic effect of covid. I suggest that people look at there situation very carefully before investing in real estate at this moment. I’m not suggesting people try timing the market. Unless you have a very good cushion financially this is not the time to be investing in real estate. There will be more job losses. Are people prepared to hold a properly for 10 years if needed. If they can’t rent out a property or end up in a situation where you can’t evict a tenant, as is the case right now, would they be able to cope financially. How stable is there industry although even some traditionally safe jobs, like in governments, may have lay offs due to less tax revenue. This may be a good time to invest for some people but if, for example, people are really dependent on rental income to carry the property and if a family doesn’t have a 6 month emergency fund to cover all their costs if they both lose their jobs investing in real estate in uncertain economic times is not what I would suggest.
 

steaky

VIP Member
Nov 11, 2008
10,158
688
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
Your statement was that Quebec real estates stats were amazing and you were encouraging people to invest in Quebec. If you look at the stats there were increases in Montreal and the figures don’t include 4th quarter. The stats also show that there were a lot less transactions so supply and demand conditions are also pushing up prices. If is impossible to determine how much the lack of houses on the market lead to increases in pricing. The lack of supply had a big impact on the higher sale prices in Toronto. When it comes to economic shocks people use savings, receive government support, use mortgage deferral programs, etc. first and once savings have been depleted and programs end we will see the true picture so we haven’t see the real economic effect of covid. I suggest that people look at there situation very carefully before investing in real estate at this moment. I’m not suggesting people try timing the market. Unless you have a very good cushion financially this is not the time to be investing in real estate. There will be more job losses. Are people prepared to hold a properly for 10 years if needed. If they can’t rent out a property or end up in a situation where you can’t evict a tenant, as is the case right now, would they be able to cope financially. How stable is there industry although even some traditionally safe jobs, like in governments, may have lay offs due to less tax revenue. This may be a good time to invest for some people but if, for example, people are really dependent on rental income to carry the property and if a family doesn’t have a 6 month emergency fund to cover all their costs if they both lose their jobs investing in real estate in uncertain economic times is not what I would suggest.
You are contradicting yourself. If you cannot evict a tenant, couldn't you sell the property to another person or entity? This may be a good time invest for some people....
 

Lazymon82

Star Member
Jan 9, 2020
140
41
Montreal
Category........
QSW
Your statement was that Quebec real estates stats were amazing and you were encouraging people to invest in Quebec. If you look at the stats there were increases in Montreal and the figures don’t include 4th quarter. The stats also show that there were a lot less transactions so supply and demand conditions are also pushing up prices. If is impossible to determine how much the lack of houses on the market lead to increases in pricing. The lack of supply had a big impact on the higher sale prices in Toronto. When it comes to economic shocks people use savings, receive government support, use mortgage deferral programs, etc. first and once savings have been depleted and programs end we will see the true picture so we haven’t see the real economic effect of covid. I suggest that people look at there situation very carefully before investing in real estate at this moment. I’m not suggesting people try timing the market. Unless you have a very good cushion financially this is not the time to be investing in real estate. There will be more job losses. Are people prepared to hold a properly for 10 years if needed. If they can’t rent out a property or end up in a situation where you can’t evict a tenant, as is the case right now, would they be able to cope financially. How stable is there industry although even some traditionally safe jobs, like in governments, may have lay offs due to less tax revenue. This may be a good time to invest for some people but if, for example, people are really dependent on rental income to carry the property and if a family doesn’t have a 6 month emergency fund to cover all their costs if they both lose their jobs investing in real estate in uncertain economic times is not what I would suggest.
You are just explaining how market works with supply and demand which i think we all understand but the virus impact on the prices was seen only for couple months back in April but it is just uphill since then according to stats. Negative interest percentage is already in talks by the central bank and will be so for next 3 years. Things are looking pretty good for real estate prices for atleast 3 years.
 

canuck78

VIP Member
Jun 18, 2017
30,399
6,654
You are just explaining how market works with supply and demand which i think we all understand but the virus impact on the prices was seen only for couple months back in April but it is just uphill since then according to stats. Negative interest percentage is already in talks by the central bank and will be so for next 3 years. Things are looking pretty good for real estate prices for atleast 3 years.
Due to the pandemic and lockdown this wasn't a normal supply and demand cycle. There is a lot less supply on the market because people don't want to move due to the pandemic.
 

canuck78

VIP Member
Jun 18, 2017
30,399
6,654
You are contradicting yourself. If you cannot evict a tenant, couldn't you sell the property to another person or entity? This may be a good time invest for some people....
You still couldn't evict the person if there is a moratorium on eviction.
 

KRP

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2012
814
165
Category........
FSW
LANDED..........
01/02/2011
Agreed ......but there was no pandemic scenario then.
Today ground reality is totally different and many more obstacles is yet to come.
 

canuck78

VIP Member
Jun 18, 2017
30,399
6,654
This is because real estate prices have been in bubble territory in many cities for a long time. What is different is that there is global economic pressures which we haven‘t seen since 2018. The economic hurt hasn’t really hit yet. There will be many more bankruptcies and layoffs to come. That is why I have been saying that investing in real estate is not something I would encourage for most. You would need to be very confident in your job prospects, be in the position to hold any real estate for a much longer period of time if necessary and have quite a lot of savings to carry you through any type of downturn, economic crisis, job loss, vacancy/non-payment of rent, etc.