Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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Looks like there's definitely a draw today. I have been trying to log into my account since I received an email that I have some account info but I can't seem to login.
Good luck everyone. Today is my last hope at 469 as loose 5 points on the day of the next draw. If it doesn't happen French route it is... I wish everyone the best and congratulations in advance to those who'll get lucky today.
Good luck everyone. Today is my last hope at 469 as loose 5 points on the day of the next draw. If it doesn't happen French route it is... I wish everyone the best and congratulations in advance to those who'll get lucky today.
All the very best to everyone! May god
All the very best to you and to everyone who are trying hard to fulfill their dreams.
Are you here for the 1st time? That may be the timing of the actual draw but there is a considerable lag when it gets updated on the website and that is still a good hour away.
Im sorry, but can someone please like this so that I can jump to the end of the thread. As much as I like the idea of having one single thread, its almost impossible to follow and I cant go through 400 pages rn.
4% of the candidates in the entire pool speak French (considering 2019 data), which means less than that are actually bilingual. I would model the data with a 2%, being extremely conservative. I believe the number of bilinguals is actually lower than that.Speculation time!
Guys, how do you think, how much the French points policy solely will affect the draw?
I was doing some rough calculations, just out of curiosity:
Let's assume that 470 points could be today's cut-off (without the new policy).
Looking at the last distribution of points, there are around 20K people between 451-470. These people can potentially benefit from the French points and jump into the 471-490 category after acquiring +20 points, which almost guarantees their ITA in the draw.
Now how many of them are bilingual and will get those +20 points? Statistics show that around 5% of total immigrants speak French. However, it is unknown how many of them are bilingual. So, assuming they are all bilingual, we take the 5% out of those potential 20K, we have 1K people max who will get the points for French and get into a higher score range. Now from that 1K, 500 could get into 471-480 range and another 500 - into 481-490 range.
That said, the final number of candidates in the 471-480 range will jump from 2400 to around 3K. And with another rough distribution, we get an increase of 2 or 3 points to the score, and the final cutoff score could be 474.
Again, just rough calculations, but who knows!
Meanwhile, I am sitting right at 474, and praying
Thanks Arjun. Still keeping faith alive even if the draw doesn't favor me today. I have already done 1.5months of French. I'll attempt the French test in February, hopefully.
Well, in that case, the effect of the French points should be no more than a 1-2 points cutoff increase. The next few hours will tell...
The moment of truth... It's that dramatic silence... Before the draw...
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