I am at 470 and If no draw takes place today I will assume that they are doing this intentionally to keep the points above 470 |
Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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I applied for two canadian universities. I am 30 years old and if I do not get an ITA within a year I am going to study there to increase my points
I got my master equivalency from IQAS on 26th and this bumps my score to 476, hoping for the draw today. Fingers crossed.
joconstantine
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- Mar 30, 2020
- 555
- Category........
- FSW
- NOC Code......
- 0213
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- Yes
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- 01-08-2020
Lol, y'all better calm down lol. There will a draw today, it's not too late to see one.
Speculation time!
Guys, how do you think, how much the French points policy solely will affect the draw?
I was doing some rough calculations, just out of curiosity:
Let's assume that 470 points could be today's cut-off (without the new policy).
Looking at the last distribution of points, there are around 20K people between 451-470. These people can potentially benefit from the French points and jump into the 471-490 category after acquiring +20 points, which almost guarantees their ITA in the draw.
Now how many of them are bilingual and will get those +20 points? Statistics show that around 5% of total immigrants speak French. However, it is unknown how many of them are bilingual. So, assuming they are all bilingual, we take the 5% out of those potential 20K, we have 1K people max who will get the points for French and get into a higher score range. Now from that 1K, 500 could get into 471-480 range and another 500 - into 481-490 range.
That said, the final number of candidates in the 471-480 range will jump from 2400 to around 3K. And with another rough distribution, we get an increase of 2 or 3 points to the score, and the final cutoff score could be 474.
Again, just rough calculations, but who knows!
Meanwhile, I am sitting right at 474, and praying
Guys, how do you think, how much the French points policy solely will affect the draw?
I was doing some rough calculations, just out of curiosity:
Let's assume that 470 points could be today's cut-off (without the new policy).
Looking at the last distribution of points, there are around 20K people between 451-470. These people can potentially benefit from the French points and jump into the 471-490 category after acquiring +20 points, which almost guarantees their ITA in the draw.
Now how many of them are bilingual and will get those +20 points? Statistics show that around 5% of total immigrants speak French. However, it is unknown how many of them are bilingual. So, assuming they are all bilingual, we take the 5% out of those potential 20K, we have 1K people max who will get the points for French and get into a higher score range. Now from that 1K, 500 could get into 471-480 range and another 500 - into 481-490 range.
That said, the final number of candidates in the 471-480 range will jump from 2400 to around 3K. And with another rough distribution, we get an increase of 2 or 3 points to the score, and the final cutoff score could be 474.
Again, just rough calculations, but who knows!
Meanwhile, I am sitting right at 474, and praying
Excuse me? The timings for the last 2 draws has been 8:30 local time where i live and its still an hour to go for it. Dont unnecessarily create panic.
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