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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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canuck78

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Jun 18, 2017
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Don't think you have to vaccinate kids to reach herd immunity. See Israel for example. Also in UK, daily deaths are in single digits (from 1000s in January). You could argue they are also close to reaching herd immunity, without vaccinating kids. I predict end of June or mid July Canada will be in the same position as Israel is currently. Will Canada risk opening the borders to new immigrants then (even partially) or will they play it safe for a few more months. I honestly don't know.



It's almost certain that the travel restrictions will be extended for two more months. Last month I was hoping there might be some relief for post March 18 COPR holders, but given the current situation in Canada, there is close to zero chance the same restrictions don't get extended. It will also politically be a very bad move if you start opening borders when your own citizens are under stay at home orders.
Israel has a much better electronic health records which has helped them organize and track who is getting vaccinated and who remains unvaccinated. They also are much stronger when it comes to contact tracing.

UK has literally just started slowly opening up so you can’t really comment on whether they have herd immunity. Still too early to see whether Israel has hit herd immunity. Israel is much more strict about making sure those entering are isolating away from other family members respect, the quarantine rules and have contact with noone. Canada’s policies aren’t enforced and there are lots of loopholes. The P1 variant became an issue out West because of a traveller who entered Canada and went to Whistler. Masks only stopped being required this week in Israel including outdoors and they have a vaccine passport system to enter things like a restaurant. Think that very good public health measures, having around half the population vaccinated and having slighter under 1 million residents who had covid all contributed to the low levels of covid. The climate in Israel also helps and so does being such a small and compact country. It is much easier to organize vaccinations when you have the technology and the logistics already in place. Given the instability in the region Israel has practice organization these large scale operations.

I still think we are far from being in the same situation in Canada. You are talking about 2.5 months away. We will hopefully have the 3rd wave under better control at that point and that would be a win. Delays in some of our vaccine shipments have been announced. Number of Occupied beds in hospital have a 4-6 week lag time. Although summer will allow people to go outdoors Canadians want to take advantage of the few warm months and it will be very difficult to tell people to limit contact with people outside their immediate family. Other countries are also experiencing a 3rd wave which is only get worse. Canada will want to ensure that our covid status has been stabilized for a while before opening up the borders more. Even if 55% of people in Canada are vaccinated with the first shot in June/July we could have a 4th wave if there is a variant that doesn’t respond or doesn’t provide much coverage to one of the variants. If people had at least 2 shots there would a higher chance that people would at least remain out of hospital even if infected. With the Majority of Canada only having one shot I think it would be risky to return to normal immigration during the summer. The government has tried to avoid the opening and closing. So far many provinces haven’t done a good job but it will be even more complicated if it involved people entering from abroad, booking flights, quitting jobs, giving notice or selling homes, etc. Many of those approved for PR after March 18, 2020 have gone through so much I can only assume that nobody wants to repeat what happened last year with many having quit their jobs and given up their home only to find out they they couldn’t travel. Once outland immigration starts the government likely only wants to move forward. Canadians aren’t even supposed to be traveling within the country so until that is possible for at least a month if not more you would hope that immigration wouldn’t return to normal. Unfortunately many of our policies don’t make sense like our current restrictions on traveling in and out of Ontario by land yet you can fly in from hot zones of Covid across the world or fly to from another province like a Ontario and risk spreading covid. Think people need to accept that covid isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The fact that many governments have talked about covid as something we need to conquer and then we can all move on after getting vaccinate is not the reality. I unfortunately think we are going to be dealing with covid forever. Hopefully I am wrong but I think we are going for a longer process.
 
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vei

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scylla

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https://www.cicnews.com/2021/04/budget-2021-what-it-means-for-canadian-immigration-0417836.html#gs.yn472k
Reforms to Express Entry

The Budget notes that the federal government has an eye towards reforming Express Entry. The government would like to give the immigration minister more authority to “select those candidates who best meet Canada’s labour market needs.” What these changes may entail are not specified in the Budget.


What do you guys think this means for fsw program? :/
The "best meet Canada's labour market needs" sounds like something NOC specific. So perhaps going back to what it was like a number of years ago where only certain NOCs qualified and there was a limit of applications accepted under each NOC. Anyway - just my opinion.
 

Islander216

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I don't want to be a wet blanket, but all this talk about millions of vaccines coming in, we've all heard this before here. It doesn't mean there won't be delays which affect these commitments, it's been that way throughout.

Don't put stock in commitments, put stock in the number of vaccinated people here, people actually getting the shots in their arms. If it was just about the vaccine reservations and portfolio, Canada would already be ahead of every other country. But the problem is the delays which have affected the orders from the suppliers.
 

canuck78

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https://www.cicnews.com/2021/04/budget-2021-what-it-means-for-canadian-immigration-0417836.html#gs.yn472k
Reforms to Express Entry

The Budget notes that the federal government has an eye towards reforming Express Entry. The government would like to give the immigration minister more authority to “select those candidates who best meet Canada’s labour market needs.” What these changes may entail are not specified in the Budget.


What do you guys think this means for fsw program? :/
Canada accepts many immigrants with professions not needed. For example Canada accepts a large volume of dentists and pharmacists although Canadian graduates struggle to find jobs and salaries have actually decreasing for some time. What is needed in the healthcare system is more PSWs, physiotherapists, nurses (LPNs, RNs, NPs), believe radiology and ultrasound techs, etc. Targeted immigration to meet skill demands versus accepting the immigrant with the highest point value makes more sense. Unfortunately Canada has not been good at predicting the skills they will need in the future. We have failed many times trying to funnel students into professions that are in need. At least when it comes to accepting immigrants you can fill an immediate need although many of the jobs requiring licensing in Canada first. The bigger issue is that if you select a person because they are trained as a PSW, there is no way to ensure they will work in that file in Canada.
 

Islander216

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Nov 27, 2019
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I think the government knows a lot of people are going to end up being retrained and reallocated to different occupations when they come to Canada.

That's the difference between Canada's and Australia's system, Canada want skilled people but it's not necessarily that they will work in their field, they expect new immigrants to adapt to professions and roles which are in demand. They're more interested in getting young people with strong language skills, who are educated but who can also shift to other professions if needs be. Basically they have transferrable skills and are retrainable. With Australia, they look at the job market and see where there are shortages and allocate ceilings based on the numbers they need to fill in different occupations. They're not bothered with losing well educated people with Australian qualifications or work experience if they're not employed in an occupation with a labour shortage. But that's also because Australia's demographics are more favourable, and because immigration is increasingly unpopular there because of the congestion in their major cities.
 
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guelphite

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Jan 22, 2021
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Ontario, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
AOR Received.
28-10-2020
Med's Request
03-12-2020
Med's Done....
07-01-2020
Canada accepts many immigrants with professions not needed. For example Canada accepts a large volume of dentists and pharmacists although Canadian graduates struggle to find jobs and salaries have actually decreasing for some time. What is needed in the healthcare system is more PSWs, physiotherapists, nurses (LPNs, RNs, NPs), believe radiology and ultrasound techs, etc. Targeted immigration to meet skill demands versus accepting the immigrant with the highest point value makes more sense. Unfortunately Canada has not been good at predicting the skills they will need in the future. We have failed many times trying to funnel students into professions that are in need. At least when it comes to accepting immigrants you can fill an immediate need although many of the jobs requiring licensing in Canada first. The bigger issue is that if you select a person because they are trained as a PSW, there is no way to ensure they will work in that file in Canada.
I've been saying that I'm sure FSW will continue, even in a worst case it would be more targeted by NOC code with some French draws on the side. Perhaps that is the world we are moving towards? At the same time they will have a hard time meeting their target volume without some big, non-specific programs... we'll see.
 

guelphite

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Jan 22, 2021
318
312
Ontario, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
AOR Received.
28-10-2020
Med's Request
03-12-2020
Med's Done....
07-01-2020
do you have a source?

I'm actually expecting an FSW draw tomorrow... just leaving this here.
I'm in Canada now, I don't have a source but this is a guarantee. Ontario is in rough shape and Ford is taking serious heat. Ontario actually just closed its borders with Manitoba and Quebec, to contain the virus here. There's 0 chance the intl borders open in the next 2 months.
 
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Islander216

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Nov 27, 2019
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I don't expect international travel restrictions to be lifted until the fall at the earliest, the last thing the govt wants is people travelling back and forth during the summer. We're having a hard enough time trying to dissuade people from going out here, imagine if they open the borders especially with the new variants surfacing in other parts of the world.

It would make no sense until vaccinations become more widespread, even then the border will likely remain closed for a while after that.

That's not to say an all program draw would necessarily be linked to the travel restrictions being lifted in the future, but that seems to be the case for now.
 
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NavjotS123

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Jul 6, 2019
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Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
i read the budget what i made out of it is that candidates with both french and english are going to be desirable for EE plus FSW is going to more of a targeted draw (based upon Labour Market Requirement )not completely open.
 

ns317

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Aug 29, 2019
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Lifting restrictions now would be horrible PR for any government, regardless of any other matter. I don't think there's a chance of the travel restrictions getting lifted before the current wave dies out AND Canada is 50%+ vaccinated. In other words, probably June or July is the best case scenario, and it could even get stretched to Fall.
 

shank15

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Mar 3, 2020
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I can only speculate as to when restrictions will be completely lifted.... but from what I can see... restrictions are already semi-open. Citizens, PR Holders, International Students, Care-Givers, Essential Workers can enter whenever they want... the only people affected by restrictions are Tourists & COPR Holders.

Considering the Covid situation Canada is in now, it's safe to say, this 1+ year restriction hasn't really been effective.
 
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