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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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ashu2111

Hero Member
Jul 15, 2020
334
257
In 2018 yeah... processing times averaged 9 months in 2019, before the pandemic. FSWs with AORs in the second half of 2019 got really unlucky and will probably end up waiting 2 years for CoPR. Hopefully 2020 AORs are "only" a year
So if we get an invitation let's say in July then it is reasonable to assume that we'd have to wait for one year or more so our files can get processed?
 

ashu2111

Hero Member
Jul 15, 2020
334
257
They've had a constant supply of 5000 CEC candidates despite the massive 27k draw in February. They are addressing specific needs with consistent PNP draws (which they can expand). FSWs are kind of irrelevant now. I don't think it's likely that FSW is abandoned, but it is the absolute worst case scenario for us. I'm right there with you, hoping FSW doesn't get cancelled.
Looking at your CRS score, I presume you've also passed a French exam like myself. So if FSW gets sidelined then it would hurt so much. Considering I spent so much time and effort to learn French since the last 3 years.
 

guelphite

Hero Member
Jan 22, 2021
318
303
Ontario, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
AOR Received.
28-10-2020
Med's Request
03-12-2020
Med's Done....
07-01-2020
So if we get an invitation let's say in July then it is reasonable to assume that we'd have to wait for one year or more so our files can get processed?
I'd be hopeful for 2021 FSW AORs to have faster processing than 2020 AORs, but that's a guess
 
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guelphite

Hero Member
Jan 22, 2021
318
303
Ontario, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
AOR Received.
28-10-2020
Med's Request
03-12-2020
Med's Done....
07-01-2020
Looking at your CRS score, I presume you've also passed a French exam like myself. So if FSW gets sidelined then it would hurt so much. Considering I spent so much time and effort to learn French since the last 3 years.
Also, I am very optimistic for French-speaking FSW draws. Even the worst case for FSW will probably preserve NOC-specific and French-specific draws. If you have hit B2 on a French test you have the best possible chance I think!
 

ashu2111

Hero Member
Jul 15, 2020
334
257
Also, I am very optimistic for French-speaking FSW draws. Even the worst case for FSW will probably preserve NOC-specific and French-specific draws. If you have hit B2 on a French test you have the best possible chance I think!
Indeed. I got a B2 in TCF Canada so I am hoping for the best here.
 

Andy Eddy

Star Member
Oct 30, 2020
63
18
Hi guys - a question for you (2 in fact)

As we know, IRCC is almost exclusively only inviting CEC candidates now, primarily as 90% of them (if I've understood correctly) are already in Canada and therefore not affected by the travel restrictions.

The talk of IRCC never again returning to FSW draws however assumes they'll be able to rely on a limitless pool of CEC candidates, already in Canada. This is surely not possible!!

Does anyone have any stats on immigrants currently working or studying in Canada without PR? To have some kind of idea how long this pool of candidates will last them!

As Mushymush very correctly points out, they will not be able to fulfill their francophone quotas only from the pool of CEC candidates, which is surely good news pour tous ceux qui ont leur niveau B2+. I've dug around for information on possible new programs targeting French speakers, but not found anything, has anyone seen anything?
 
D

Deleted member 1006777

Guest
Hi guys - a question for you (2 in fact)

As we know, IRCC is almost exclusively only inviting CEC candidates now, primarily as 90% of them (if I've understood correctly) are already in Canada and therefore not affected by the travel restrictions.

The talk of IRCC never again returning to FSW draws however assumes they'll be able to rely on a limitless pool of CEC candidates, already in Canada. This is surely not possible!!

Does anyone have any stats on immigrants currently working or studying in Canada without PR? To have some kind of idea how long this pool of candidates will last them!

As Mushymush very correctly points out, they will not be able to fulfill their francophone quotas only from the pool of CEC candidates, which is surely good news pour tous ceux qui ont leur niveau B2+. I've dug around for information on possible new programs targeting French speakers, but not found anything, has anyone seen anything?
I want to reiterate that this is not a likely scenario, but just something to keep in mind moving forward. I do think they will bring back FSW, and may reduce the FSW quota. But here are some numbers:

There are around 500k TFWs (temporary foreign workers in Canada). Numbers fluctuate a little but it's around there. About half of those are in agriculture or related sectors. Note that many of these are eligible for EE. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00028-eng.htm

Businesses prefer to keep them as TFWs, I'm not fully certain why, but I know there are calls to make it easier for them to become PRs. https://www.immigration.ca/fr/union-calls-temporary-workers-become-permanent-residents

Here's some more relevant data. The number of international students in Canada was 300k in 2018. Let's say 250k in 2015 who graduated in 2019, and got a year of experience in 2020. These are all CEC. This number alone is more than twice as high as the annual allocation for EE. This also assumes that all these students are undergraduates. There could also be a sizeable number of masters students who would graduate in 2 years so we would also have international students from 2017 feeding into this number (and conversely some potential PhD students bring the number from 2015 down, but the majority of grad students are masters not PhD ). We all know they are trying to incentivize students to stay back after college and work by offering easier pathways to residency and reducing the requirements for PGWPs.

So to your point, it certainly looks like they have a limitless supply of CEC. What they do from here on out remains to be seen. We will know more closer to June once Canada gets closer to 1 shot for all adults and resumes discussing reopening borders.

Regarding francophone immigration, look up the francophone streams for individual provinces. I haven't explored PNP processes fully, but I believe you ahve to apply to the provinces individually. Ontario seems like the strongest option, because from my quick and likely incomplete search, many provinces need a job offer in the province to be considered for nomination but Ontario doesn't. Then there's Quebec immigration, but I'm not going to waste my time with a 1+ year nomination time and unclear application processes. Plus I'm not sure if making an ARRIMA profile counts as 'intent to reside in Quebec'. I'm not risking it.

Edit: From what I can see, only Ontario seems to have a specific french PNP stream. For a few others like Manitoba, there are certain streams that make you LMIA exempt and thus make it easier to get a job offer and PNP nomination.
Ontario: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-express-entry-french-speaking-skilled-worker-stream
 
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SovonHalder

Star Member
Mar 27, 2021
83
43
India
@mushymush @seadrag0n

:(

My EOR didn't help. Got the report this afternoon and it's unchanged.
I applied for EOR in writing on 1st April in hopes of getting its score increased to 7.5 from 7.0.
My overall score (LRSW-8.5,8,8,7) remained unchanged. I'm a tad bit upset that I didn't take a separate exam instead of this.
Can't wait for the FSW draws to begin again.
 

seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,784
2,490
@mushymush @seadrag0n

:(

My EOR didn't help. Got the report this afternoon and it's unchanged.
I applied for EOR in writing on 1st April in hopes of getting its score increased to 7.5 from 7.0.
My overall score (LRSW-8.5,8,8,7) remained unchanged. I'm a tad bit upset that I didn't take a separate exam instead of this.
Can't wait for the FSW draws to begin again.
You should give another test. If you get lucky and get an opinion question and write a good enough essay within 280 words covering the question completely, you should get CLB10 provided your letter is within 160 words and addresses all parts of the question. I feel that every other essay question type is difficult to respond to adequately and keep within 280 words.

Like others have mentioned, we don't know when FSW draws will be back and since only CEC draws are happening, IRCC might decide to continue with them to fulfill their quota even if the travel restrictions are lifted and throw an FSW draw here and there to invite those high scoring candidates. We should be ready for anything.
 
D

Deleted member 1006777

Guest
@mushymush @seadrag0n

:(

My EOR didn't help. Got the report this afternoon and it's unchanged.
I applied for EOR in writing on 1st April in hopes of getting its score increased to 7.5 from 7.0.
My overall score (LRSW-8.5,8,8,7) remained unchanged. I'm a tad bit upset that I didn't take a separate exam instead of this.
Can't wait for the FSW draws to begin again.
That's unfortunate, but honestly I've never heard of anyone's IELTS score changing after a remarking. Don't be upset though. Depending on your country/city, you can still take the computer based exam and get a new score in 5 days. Regardless your previous options still stand. The scores will eventually drop to 470, so it's a toss up between learning enough french to boost your scores by a few points or waiting till the scores drop. The obvious risk with the latter is losing points for age before they drop enough. Good luck either way.

Edit: Cool, now I know of 4 people whose scores changed. Thanks. Now chill.
 
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scylla

VIP Member
Jun 8, 2010
92,935
20,542
Toronto
Category........
Visa Office......
Buffalo
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
App. Filed.......
28-05-2010
AOR Received.
19-08-2010
File Transfer...
28-06-2010
Passport Req..
01-10-2010
VISA ISSUED...
05-10-2010
LANDED..........
05-10-2010
That's unfortunate, but honestly I've never heard of anyone's IELTS score changing after a remarking.
FYI - We see examples all of the time on this forum where remarking results in a higher score.
 

SovonHalder

Star Member
Mar 27, 2021
83
43
India
That's unfortunate, but honestly I've never heard of anyone's IELTS score changing after a remarking. Don't be upset though. Depending on your country/city, you can still take the computer based exam and get a new score in 5 days. Regardless your previous options still stand. The scores will eventually drop to 470, so it's a toss up between learning enough french to boost your scores by a few points or waiting till the scores drop. The obvious risk with the latter is losing points for age before they drop enough. Good luck either way.
The fact that so many people recommended me to go for it if I can afford it, is the main reason I applied for EOR. I thought people saw changes (improvements) in their EOR all the time.
 
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armitabbsn

Hero Member
Oct 6, 2020
256
164
Iran
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
3131
That's unfortunate, but honestly I've never heard of anyone's IELTS score changing after a remarking. Don't be upset though. Depending on your country/city, you can still take the computer based exam and get a new score in 5 days. Regardless your previous options still stand. The scores will eventually drop to 470, so it's a toss up between learning enough french to boost your scores by a few points or waiting till the scores drop. The obvious risk with the latter is losing points for age before they drop enough. Good luck either way.
my score changed after asking for remarking. my writing changed from 6.5 to 7
 

King K

Full Member
Apr 11, 2021
21
8
@mushymush @seadrag0n

My EOR didn't help. Got the report this afternoon and it's unchanged.
I applied for EOR in writing on 1st April in hopes of getting its score increased to 7.5 from 7.0.
My overall score (LRSW-8.5,8,8,7) remained unchanged. I'm a tad bit upset that I didn't take a separate exam instead of this.
I'm in the EXACT same situation. Missed CLB 10 by 0.5 in writing. I contemplated giving it for re-checking too but a) couldn't justify the cost of 10K! with a 50% probability. b) I wasn't confident in what I wrote down.
My exam centre fucked up my exam - British Council, Nehru Place, Delhi. Their servers went down after the Listening module and they made us wait inside the room for almost 4 hours with NO coffee or tea and then resumed our Reading and Writing by the time our brains were completely inactive. I'm still mad at how it all went down and at myself, for not fighting enough for refreshments or something.

My current score is 473 but I know I have a better chance at 476 so I'm thinking of waiting till July to see what the cutoffs are like, if I feel they won't dip soon, I'll give a re-exam where I know there is a 100% chance I'll get CLB 10, provided their damn servers don't crash again. Whatever I need to do, needs to be done before my 31st birthday on 15th October because I'll lose more points for age so hoping we see some FSW draws by July or August! If you're not in a time-sensitive situation, I'd suggest you wait to see what the draws are like and based on that make a decision whether you want to take IELTS again or not. It only takes 5 days to get the results anyway.
 
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