Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Islander216]

How can you say that covid is not the main risk for that?

There was only ever 1 CEC only draw in 2015 before covid happened, the whole reason why FSW candidates are not getting invited now is because of covid.

You're not fully vaccinated until you get your second dose, so this idea that June will be this turning point is not real. You need to get to a point where you have fully vaccinated a strong majority of people especially in high population areas like the golden horseshoe, before there will be any consideration for travel restrictions to be lifted.

I think that'll be around October at the earliest. I hope it will earlier but i have my doubts. The last thing Canada needs right now is to lift travel restrictions prematurely.

 

[guelphite]

How can you say that covid is not the main risk for that?

There was only ever 1 CEC only draw in 2015 before covid happened, the whole reason why FSW candidates are not getting invited now is because of covid.

You're not fully vaccinated until you get your second dose, so this idea that June will be this turning point is not real. You need to get to a point where you have fully vaccinated a strong majority of people especially in high population areas like the golden horseshoe, before there will be any consideration for travel restrictions to be lifted.

I think that'll be around October at the earliest. I hope it will earlier but i have my doubts. The last thing Canada needs right now is to lift travel restrictions prematurely.

Political risk is higher than covid. Covid is going bro. It can't take this vaccine heat. Political risk is what did Australia's program in. There will probably be an election this year, the Liberals are looking good right now but you never know.

 

[Islander216]

Sure, but you need the actual vaccination rate to go up for things to work out, no one is denying the vaccine is effective but it's pointless if the rollout is bumbling and there are not enough people who are vaccinated. They stopped inviting FSW candidates when the situation got worse and they will only start re-inviting them once the situation improves, that hasn't happened yet.

I think the liberals aren't look good at all, but i will say that the conservatives don't seem popular either. My prediction is another minority liberal government.

 

[guelphite]

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-inch-closer-to-majority-territory/

Not looking so bad O'Toole is a big whiner. And even a liberal minority government is totally fine for FSW hopes.

 

[Uncle Yayo]

Chai... wahala for who never collect ITA.

 

[SovonHalder]

Fuund this article today on CICNEWS: https://www.cicnews.com/2021/04/express-entry-q1-2021-report-canada-smashes-record-as-it-eyes-401000-immigration-goal-0417684.html

"If last year is any indication, we can expect IRCC to continue to hold program-specific CEC and PNP draws over the next few months. However, IRCC returned to all-program draws in the second half of 2020, and it may do the same against this year. The rationale would be that inviting as many PNP and CEC candidates in the first six months of the year will enable IRCC to land as many of these candidates as possible by the end of 2021, which would support its 401,000 newcomer goal for the year. Then, it can hold all-program draws in the second half of this year and complete the landing of these candidates, such as FSWP candidates, once the pandemic situation improves and travel restrictions are lifted."

 

[guelphite]

https://www.cp24.com/news/ont-prioritizing-everyone-18-in-hardest-hit-neighbourhoods-as-part-of-phase-2-of-vaccine-rollout-1.5378057

"The premier said he believes that if Ontario continues to receive the scheduled shipments of vaccine from the federal government, 40 per cent of all adults in Ontario will have received their first dose by the end of April. "

 

[ashu2111]

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

Probably around June. The above link says the govt plans to have vaccinated everyone by September but I remember reading news that said the deliveries were rearranged so Canada would receive more doses quicker, which may help complete vaccinations in the summer. 7.5m doses are administered so far which is not bad. Maybe we can expect to see the numbers drop by the end of this month, and maybe we'll start to get some good news in May or June.

Let's hope so! June or July is still doable.

 

[ashu2111]

So they claim, but it doesn't look likely. They would have to administer ~300k vaccines a day to get the first dose to every eligible canadian by canada day. Their average right now is well below, at 170k a day. Unless they significantly ramp things up, the whole one shot by canada day thing is a pipe dream. The good news is that vaccination efforts will speed up, and I do believe they should be able to meet the herd immunity before september 30th goal.

And that makes the august/september timeframe for resuming all program draws look very possible (that is if they do intend to reopen all program draws)

But why wouldn't they open up all the programs if everyone is vaccinated. I certainly hope that FSW doesn't get cancelled.

 

[ashu2111]

There's nothing reasonable in halting fsw draws for 7 months, especially when there's the fact that it takes FSW people 1 year to land in Canada due to processing times.

Isnt it usually six months?

 

[guelphite]

Isnt it usually six months?

In 2018 yeah... processing times averaged 9 months in 2019, before the pandemic. FSWs with AORs in the second half of 2019 got really unlucky and will probably end up waiting 2 years for CoPR. Hopefully 2020 AORs are "only" a year

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

But why wouldn't they open up all the programs if everyone is vaccinated. I certainly hope that FSW doesn't get cancelled.

They've had a constant supply of 5000 CEC candidates despite the massive 27k draw in February. They are addressing specific needs with consistent PNP draws (which they can expand). FSWs are kind of irrelevant now. I don't think it's likely that FSW is abandoned, but it is the absolute worst case scenario for us. I'm right there with you, hoping FSW doesn't get cancelled.

 

[EscoBlades]

There's nothing reasonable in halting fsw draws for 7 months, especially when there's the fact that it takes FSW people 1 year to land in Canada due to processing times.

Except a global pandemic

 

[Rish92]

They've had a constant supply of 5000 CEC candidates despite the massive 27k draw in February. They are addressing specific needs with consistent PNP draws (which they can expand). FSWs are kind of irrelevant now. I don't think it's likely that FSW is abandoned, but it is the absolute worst case scenario for us. I'm right there with you, hoping FSW doesn't get cancelled.

Australia pretty much abandoned their 189 program for offshore applicants under the cover of the pandemic.

Even before the pandemic they were prioritising onshore applicants and inviting very few offshore aspirants.

Not to mention even the onshore migrants don’t want offshore applicants prioritised in any way.

I can see Canada going the same way.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Australia pretty much abandoned their 189 program for offshore applicants under the cover of the pandemic.
Even before the pandemic they were prioritising onshore applicants and inviting very few offshore aspirants.

Not to mention even the onshore migrants don’t want offshore applicants prioritised in any way.

From what I know, it hasn't been officially closed. They just didn't open it for the 2020 year. And Australia isn't doing so well with vaccinations either so who knows when they will reopen it.

I don't think Canada will just randomly abandon it without warning. They might significantly slow it down or allocate a much smaller proportion of yearly intake to FSW and redirect a lot more towards CEC and PNP.

And yeah, it's interesting how immigrants tend to become anti-immigrant once they end up immigrating. Plus the animosity between inland and outland is kind of sad, but understandable.