Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

[Sandeep198511]

I am at 438.
Profile created 27th Nov 2017. Should I re-create to get eligible for OINP?

You will get direct ITA in next draw I would wait for that or else you might get impacted by profile created date...

 

[hemangshah]

Hi everybody, I'm currently sitting at 441 but will lose 5 points on Feb 2nd when I turn 30. My current work permit expires on March 18th, what chances do you think I have of getting a ITA before this date with my score at 441 or 436? Should I start looking at other options like PNP?

Really starting to worry now as time is running out and finding out I will lose another 5 points soon has just added to my worry!

It would be better if you re create your profile and take OINP...OINP draws will happen before your bday and there are high chances that you get nomination...

 

[rashpal26]

The fixed


The fixed number is because of the tie breaking rule. Earlier they will set a minimum threshold and it will be out of their control how many applicants receive ITA. There is quite a crowd around scores of 400-450. So hundreds of applicants with a single score. Plus now they have extensive data on working of EE system and number of dependants that cinema with each applicant, percentage of ITA who submit vAlid applications, percentage who further pass, and then how many land.

So in sum they are better able to control the total number of ITA with more data and tie breaking rule. I do not expect he total number of ITA per year to increase from now on. That would be consistent with their increased targets over the next few years. It is because last year saw a dramatic jump in PR issued. Now most of them will start landing in 2018. And many will bring dependants and then other members through family unification.

This should last till a new government is formed in early 2020. If Liberals again come to power PR intake might even increase or at least remain steady.

Average family size as per 2016 report was 1.9 and family unification has separate fixed quota. If 2017 ITA are going to land in 2018 then 2018 will be in 2019, which has higher quota then this year. Absence of tiebreaker could make difference of few hundred, but not thousand for numbers jump to +3500. I believe either numbers will go up or frequency, question is when.

 

[nt13]

Where is this mentioned? Have you experienced or is just what you interpret? If that is the case, why isn’t it highlighted to CIC?

Do not do that.
That one will just rule you out of any Ontario NOI. It seems that they have a bug in that section and if you try to select specific provinces it will let you do so without deselecting "all" option.
However at the same time some provinces (like Ontario or BC) have data collection clause (that you agree, that they will collect your data) and that one is programmed the way, that it will disappear if you do that double selection (which does not make sense anyway).
So either select Ontario and any other province you wish; or select ALL

 

[nt13]

It is very clearing that we are going to see the same number of ITAs for every draw. 2750*2= 5500 ITAs in a month.
And 5500*12= 66000 in 2018.
Since there is a target for 72000 , we may see a max of 3 back to back draws(72000-66000=6000)
Hence there is only possibility for higher crs to get an invitation in the near future.
Guys am not being pessimistic as I have been in pool since June and seen many ups and downs.
In the mean time if anybody below 442 gets a PnP noi please go for it, because direct ita is a mere luck for you.
Am also losing my hopes for direct ita as I have to learn French(which is impossible for me at this stage)... and eagerly hoping for oinp.

I slightly have a different opinion. Those above 435 need not worry until April, and OINP should be the choice if only they don’t mind spending extra 1500 CAD , undergo additional processes and length of time for ITA & prefer staying in Ontario for 2 years at least. Again, what I understand here is that unlike last year, they might just not shut down registration and their portal for long periods, as they need people to accept NOIs and register in time. Hence, to opt for OINP, people wil have great flexibility than last year.

BTW, what’s your score?

 

[Tony20182017]

Average family size as per 2016 report was 1.9 and family unification has separate fixed quota. If 2017 ITA are going to land in 2018 then 2018 will be in 2019, which has higher quota then this year. Absence of tiebreaker could make difference of few hundred, but not thousand for numbers jump to +3500. I believe either numbers will go up or frequency, question is when.

Because of lack of certainty they had no fixed draw numbers and so number intake swung wildly. They had to compensate and overcompensate and so many hundreds difference from time to time.

Family unification does have separate quota but for them the overall target is more sacrosanct. And so if numbers in in One go substantially, they will still try to be within overall cap.

It is the start of 2018, and they are still preoccupied with being within targets for the year owing to last year. They will start thinking Bout next year from the second half.

 

[premchandar.au]

I am at crs 441. Have potential to increase to max 444 with slight increase in IELTS. Should i wait or take again. Taken the test twice and fed up already. No idea why my speaking score was only 7. Or can ask my wife to retake. But the effect of ielts on crs is not much for dependents (increase of 1 or 2 points max). Any thoughts

 

[premchandar.au]

I am at crs 441. Have potential to increase to max 444 with slight increase in IELTS. Should i wait or take again. Taken the test twice and fed up already. No idea why my speaking score was only 7. Or can ask my wife to retake. But the effect of ielts on crs is not much for dependents (increase of 1 or 2 points max). Any thoughts

 

[keyur sharma]

Let us keep our fingers crossed. If there is a draw on Jan 31st, we both will be in I guess.
then

on me

No there will be no draw man. I am seriously telling you. Don’t keep false hope .

 

[keyur sharma]

I am at crs 441. Have potential to increase to max 444 with slight increase in IELTS. Should i wait or take again. Taken the test twice and fed up already. No idea why my speaking score was only 7. Or can ask my wife to retake. But the effect of ielts on crs is not much for dependents (increase of 1 or 2 points max). Any thoughts

You will get hopefully in next cutoff

 

[Contactnisha]

I slightly have a different opinion. Those above 435 need not worry until April, and OINP should be the choice if only they don’t mind spending extra 1500 CAD , undergo additional processes and length of time for ITA & prefer staying in Ontario for 2 years at least. Again, what I understand here is that unlike last year, they might just not shut down registration and their portal for long periods, as they need people to accept NOIs and register in time. Hence, to opt for OINP, people wil have great flexibility than last year.

BTW, what’s your score?

Mine is 433

 

[GavinSouthAfrica]

Guys, I'm sitting at 440 with NOI from ONIP.
I missed CLB 10 because of getting 7 in writing. Everything else is 8.5 and 9
Which of the following do you suggest?
1. Re take IELTS to get CLB 10 so that I can get 443
2. Take the ONIP path ( I got NOI yesterday)
3. Wait it out

A lot of us ignored our NOI's last year in the belief the score would come down and it didn't

IF you want to live in Ontario then take the ONIP now.. it's only $1500 which is nothing in the big scheme of things

 

[anwar01]

@iamxty What is going on with your application? Every one I knew from OINP time got PPR except me!

 

[sundar17feb99]

Another "Ray of hope", another way to breathe fresh air of optimism
Finally this time we witnessed the decrease in CRS score.

2018 ITA rain about to start fellas.

 

[Contactnisha]

Because of lack of certainty they had no fixed draw numbers and so number intake swung wildly. They had to compensate and overcompensate and so many hundreds difference fro

A lot of us ignored our NOI's last year in the belief the score would come down and it didn't

IF you want to live in Ontario then take the ONIP now.. it's only $1500 which is nothing in the big scheme of things

Exactly