Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[romrumrira]

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE !!!

 

[hasim_canadavisa]

I was wondering about the UCI, the profile I withdrew has it but the new one don't.

And when did you withdrew and recreated?

Same for me too. I am at 414 since last September. I recreated approx 20 hours before and still without UCI.

I think this is to stop the mad rush of profile withdrawal and recreation. And they will assign UCI after the draw today.

I strongly suggest the folks with higher CRS to get direct ITA should not go for profile withdrawal-recreation any more. You may loose your chance to be considered in the pool for considerable time.And no UCI means you are not considered for the draw.

 

[h1b2pr]

My guess 439

 

[BillHyatt]

From what it seems, and believing there is some maths behind the pattern of CIC trends:

1. For CIC : to do their targets 2750 ITAs X 28 bi-weekly ( 2 draws a month and one or two additional) draws will be enough to reach roughly 77k ITA nos. Hence, the scores don’t appear to be cooling any faster. They might continue to hover in the range of 440 +/- 5 till April. Given that there would be fresh batches of immigrant students also joining the bandwagon after April once the have their degrees in hand.

2. For OINP: This might again be a similar pattern as that of CIC. 2 rounds in 2/3 months with NOI issue rate of 340/350 serves their purpose of issuing 2000 NOIs for HCP aspirants. This again will go parallel to last CIC cutoff scores or top CRS scorers. Like I said in an earlier post, they might target younger lot or the ones who are already in Canada.

Above is completely an individual hypothesis. No negativity intended. Could be wrong to a great extent (and I pray I am for my own self as I am on 402, that will go below 400 in July). But for now , those in the range of 400-420 are for a long haul. Unless we observe a change in the next rounds... whether that of CIC or OINP.

Tagging some known analysts and observers for their views @BillHyatt @abhishek_89 .

PS: I ain’t giving up yet, and am in no need of self help. Just trying to logically figure out what’s going on.

Thanks.

IRCC next implementation phase will start from April and their target was to decide on applications for 2017 by the end of March. IRCC took many PNP applicants to Ottawa CPC as it was the fastest for the same purpose. However, this resulted in Backlogs in Ottawa CPC as well and slowed down their processing as well. Now the size of ITA and Nominations are expected to be low till IRCC and Local Visa Offices are able to ease down the backlogs.

IRCC is investing huge amounts on IT upgradation but they still need to add up ad-hoc human resources to speed up processing. Another option is to increase the number of Visa Offices around the world to decrease pressure on Global Visa Hubs.

In conclusion, I agree with your analysis and hope that IRCC will be able to improve things until April when their next implementation phase starts.

 

[Ragnar19]

Hello everyone! Please help me asap. I have created my profile in june 2017 with 387 CRS which had an UCI. Again I recreated on September 2017 with 438 score. But this time, it had no UCI. Is it true that ITA will not be sent for the profiles with no UCI?

 

[Kaveh86]

My prediction for draw-

If today then CRS 447
If next week then CRS 452

According to the previous rounds data, everytime that the number of ITAs issued stayed the same and the gap between the two draws was two weeks, the new cut-off point has always been 2 to 6 points lower than the previous cut-off point. So the only scenario that your prediction can be true is that CIC decreases the number of ITAs issued for this draw.

I seriously doubt CIC would do such a thing and I predict 443 +/-2 for the 82nd draw if it happens today.

 

[KingKurly]

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNEW.html

OINP updated their status:

Express Entry – Human Capital Priorities Notification of Interest

Please be advised that the OINP has commenced issuing NOIs under the HCP stream. Following the issuance of NOIs, the OINP will post on its website a program update informing stakeholders of the methodology used to issue NOIs.

The results of yesterday’s round are as follows:

Number of invitations issued: 330
Date and time of portal search: January 19, 2018 at 3:00 EST
CRS score range: 440 to 446
Date Express Entry profile submitted: January 1, 2018 to January 19, 2018

This strategy is bizarre as well as very clever. They are targeting high scoring people 440+ but less than the current trend of 446+. Hence those who are not very informed will accept the NOI and send their application. Plus they have reduced the application submission deadline from 6 months to 45 days. Mind blowing and boggling at the same time. Got to give it to OINP!!

 

[KingKurly]

I hope the 330 initial invitation will not be counted towards 6,600 total allocation because obviously these guys will reject the NOI tomorrow.

Educated ones will. However those who are less informed, consultants might as well encourage them to take the OINP route even with 440+ score. After all they charge separately for OINP application and then the FSW later.

 

[KingKurly]

6,600 is PR target not NOIs. Pls correct me if i am wrong

That's correct!!

 

[KingKurly]

Do remember that many people who submitted application in Nov 2017 have not received nominations, they will be considered in 2018 quota

I submitted my OINP application on 15 November and it was still submitted on 22 Jan. What in the world are they doing in their office??? Luckily I got to withdrew my application and now waiting for the refund.

 

[Kaveh86]

It's also interesting to see that 330 NOIs were sent and only 4 people in this forum were among them or preferred to share this news with others. Almost 1 percent of all the people who received NOI!!

 

[KingKurly]

OINP does still have a significant backlog. I don't know why they would issue NOIs to people with 440+ CRS, except maybe to score some easy money with virtually no work. These 440+ CRS people will receive direct ITA soon. But if OINP starts processing the application (i.e., moving it to Assessment status), the $1500 application fee is nonrefundable. So I can imagine OINP quickly moving these 440+ CRS applications to Assessment and then doing nothing. Soon these people get direct ITAs, so OINP doesn't have to do any work on these applications but gets to keep the $1500. Just my personal speculation though.

Makes world of sense!!!

 

[sweetsalt]

IQAS ECA: completion of a two-year postsecondary Diploma with a focus in Arts

Which option to choose from drop down menu while calculating CRS score ?

Is it two years program at Uni, college, trade and technical school.....

 

[HuyQuang]

Hello everyone! Please help me asap. I have created my profile in june 2017 with 387 CRS which had an UCI. Again I recreated on September 2017 with 438 score. But this time, it had no UCI. Is it true that ITA will not be sent for the profiles with no UCI?

I created my EE profile in Jan 14, first time. However, no UCI either. Below is what I get from cic page, it seems acceptable for new profile. So I am very worried if this causes any impact on my eligibility for the draw today. I answered No in the question: Have you ever applied....before?

What is my client ID?
Your client ID, also referred to as a UCI, is on all documents you get from us. It is an eight or ten-digit number that looks like this: 0000-0000 or 00-0000-0000.

If you are applying to us for the first time, you will not yet have a client ID. If you are filling out a form that asks for one, write “Not Applicable” or “N/A” in the space provided.

If you are applying online and the form does not allow you to input “N/A,” leave the space blank.

 

[closingtime]

Hmm my profile was withdrawn and resubmitted and is valid since the 19th but still no UCI. I wonder if that means I am not in the pool to receive PNP.

Because that would be pretty bad.

Anyone know anything about UCIs ?