Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[sinou39]

This only says something about how bored I am today. I ran a simple linear regression on the draw data for the year. Used just 2 variables: # of ITAs vs cut-off score. Find results below

https://ibb.co/dPbVjb

 

[rajakaali]

Few of them received it and others are still waiting. Give it 24 hours. All the best!

Thanks! Congrats to people who already received and good luck to everyone else!

 

[sinou39]

This only says something about how bored I am today. I ran a simple linear regression on the draw data for the year. Used just 2 variables: # of ITAs vs cut-off score. Find results below

https://ibb.co/dPbVjb

I removed outliers like PNP and Trade Skills draws from the data i fed to the model. Also note that, it is 2 dimensional - does not take into account the interval between draws. I am too lazy to try something more complex right now.

Simplified linear regression function according to my (naive) model:


Cut-off score = -(0.0139*# of ITAs) + 483.8

Take this with a grain of salt due to the limitations of my simple model as mentioned above.

 

[sinou39]

I removed outliers like PNP and Trade Skills draws from the data i fed to the model. Also note that, it is 2 dimensional - does not take into account the interval between draws. I am too lazy to try something more complex right now.

Simplified linear regression function according to my (naive) model:


Cut-off score = -(0.0139*# of ITAs) + 483.8

Take this with a grain of salt due to the limitations of my simple model as mentioned above.

I promise, this is my last post regarding this model. Slightly upgraded the linear regression model to include # of days between draws. This is what i get (with a reasonably small margin of error):

cut-off score = (0.2281*# of days since last draw) - (0.007*# of ITAs) + 458

Plug your values into the function and get your prediction. Again, this is still linear regression, so it is not super accurate.
I promise, no more updates from me regarding this . Sorry about the spamming.

 

[santhosh156]

Feel lucky to have accepted the pnp else the low score of 421 would have come to haunt me today and may be for little longer

Hi,

I'm also stuck in 421 for almost an year now. How much time did it take to get the OINP ? I only have till April 2018 and after that my score will go down by 5 points. Please help. Let me if we can have a private chat ?

Regards,
Santhoshkumar

 

[RameshKum]

Hi,

I'm also stuck in 421 for almost an year now. How much time did it take to get the OINP ? I only have till April 2018 and after that my score will go down by 5 points. Please help. Let me if we can have a private chat ?

Regards,
Santhoshkumar

Dear Santhosh,

Hope this might help you..
https://www.canadavisa.com/express-entry-improving-your-profile-and-ranking.html

Few tips:
Try to give IELTS again to improve your score
Add your spouse IELTS or education credentials to boost your score, etc.,

You will find more info in the attached link.

 

[Kemzol]

Hi,

I'm also stuck in 421 for almost an year now. How much time did it take to get the OINP ? I only have till April 2018 and after that my score will go down by 5 points. Please help. Let me if we can have a private chat ?

Regards,

 

[l_p]

I am in a similar situation. Please post and confirm when you receive the ITA best of luck

Just got my ITA, I was very lucky to submit it just at the right time, now I need to start getting all my documents ready.

I think I will be able to submit everything by the end of January, I'm going back home for christmas and will need to wait till after I get back to Canada to apply for a police certificate.

Exciting times, best of luck to everyone else that is waiting!

 

[RameshKum]

Just got my ITA, I was very lucky to submit it just at the right time, now I need to start getting all my documents ready.

I think I will be able to submit everything by the end of January, I'm going back home for christmas and will need to wait till after I get back to Canada to apply for a police certificate.

Exciting times, best of luck to everyone else that is waiting!

Question, do you need to provide the PCC for your time in Canada? I heard that, CIC does automatically, isn't true?

 

[closingtime]

I promise, this is my last post regarding this model. Slightly upgraded the linear regression model to include # of days between draws. This is what i get (with a reasonably small margin of error):

cut-off score = (0.2281*# of days since last draw) - (0.007*# of ITAs) + 458

Plug your values into the function and get your prediction. Again, this is still linear regression, so it is not super accurate.
I promise, no more updates from me regarding this . Sorry about the spamming.

I find this fascinating, I tried to do something similar with all of the data from the last two years to see if I could make some predictions.

what is the significance of the +458 in your findings ?

 

[jessekay]

438 and desperate..

 

[l_p]

Question, do you need to provide the PCC for your time in Canada? I heard that, CIC does automatically, isn't true?

From what I've read and also on this link it suggests that you do not need to supply one for permanent residency unless they specifically ask you too.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/medical-police/police-certificates/how/canada.html

I have only been in Canada for two months so far so chances are I will have everything submitted before I have been here for 6 months.

 

[RameshKum]

From what I've read and also on this link it suggests that you do not need to supply one for permanent residency unless they specifically ask you too.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/medical-police/police-certificates/how/canada.html

I have only been in Canada for two months so far so chances are I will have everything submitted before I have been here for 6 months.

Okay great.. Thanks mate

 

[abhishek_89]

I promise, this is my last post regarding this model. Slightly upgraded the linear regression model to include # of days between draws. This is what i get (with a reasonably small margin of error):

cut-off score = (0.2281*# of days since last draw) - (0.007*# of ITAs) + 458

Plug your values into the function and get your prediction. Again, this is still linear regression, so it is not super accurate.
I promise, no more updates from me regarding this . Sorry about the spamming.

Based on the above equation, if the next draw happens after a 4-week or 28-day gap (on Jan 3rd, 2018) with 2750 ITAs, the CRS cut off would be 445 which is not possible!

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi,

I'm also stuck in 421 for almost an year now. How much time did it take to get the OINP ? I only have till April 2018 and after that my score will go down by 5 points. Please help. Let me if we can have a private chat ?

Regards,
Santhoshkumar

When did you enter the express entry pool?
Nobody in the express entry pool can be stuck with a CRS of 421 for 1 year now as there were draws in April and May which would have gotten them an ITA.