Their website is Super buggy. It happened to me several times. I find that if I log out and log in again, and open it, it shows the full report.
Ray of Hope 68th Draw
- Thread starter WaseemWasii
- Start date
BS. CRS is going to hit 410 by the end of next month and 380 by December if 2 draws are held every month. And even lower if 3 draws happens!!I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.
I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:
First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.
If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:
Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420
Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.
So my optimistic forecast for this year:
Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+
If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads
It will be lower than 435 if a draw happens today simply because we just had a 9 points dip. We all are going to get our ITA's guys. and TGIF..Cheers!!!
Whoa! That is really a long post! But all that matters to me (and us) is CRS cut-off points going down every time a draw happens!I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.
I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:
First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.
If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:
Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420
Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.
So my optimistic forecast for this year:
Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+
If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads
Still nothing, do you know if the cert number was different to your refernce number or the same by any chance ?
There is always a space for that error term in econometric analysis.
I don't think the Analyst based his analysis on existing data as normally released after every draw, and he didn't consider PNP! If Ontario fulfill there quota as expected with the pause in the popular Human Capital Priorities Stream, what will be the impact?
Besides, what if there is no draw this week? Which is now a possibility since we have waited and no draw on Wednesday and Thursday, maybe today. What if CIC starts conducting draws every three weeks? I pray not.
There are many factors to consider that is why I don't like making predictions as far Express Entry draws are concerned.
Try it a few times. And on a PC, not your phone.
I think my number was the same as my reference number, but with an IMM at the end. I can check again, once I am home, and update you.
Thank you guys for your positive comment, I'm seen some people familiar with numbers.Good analysis, Not that bad but I would love to add my prediction to these, by the end of November people with 400 CRS will be celebrating their success and in December we will likely see the BREAK of the wall of CRS 399 and less score, I'm pretty sure about it, coz soon CIC will booming us again with 3800, 3900, even 4000 or more ITAs to get to their established target (I mean PR issuance guys, not ITAs issuance), so hope for the best and we have to be patient and we all get our ITAs
An this very moment, some CIC agents are having their vacation time or other break period, you don't believe me, check out other years of this period.
As @andieangel always repeats, our ITAs are on the way!
Please keep these notes in mind:
1-There is an increase trend in pool size around 3-5 % and we can expect this trend go up in next rounds.
2-The rate of successful application per ITA is around 70%.
3-We are working with a sample size of 50k and we should normalize the outliers. When you do that, people between 400 and 450 (10k people) will be receiving 2k ITAs per round. As a result you'll end up with possibly a 500 more people stuck between 400-415 each round, so each 4 rounds that the score not going below 415 they will need an additional round because of the new people joining to the pool. So my calculations showing me that we'll need at least 8 rounds until reaching 410 threshold.
Finally,
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics" as famous quote describes. We're just estimating
Anyone's lawyer/consultant giving them an update today?
Reposting.
Employers will be Required to Invite Applicants Under new Job Match Service
As of August 28, there will be an additional step for Canadian employers wishing to hire through a new rating system will match workers registered in the Canada Job Bank with advertised positions, and employers will be required to invite candidates who have a certain number of stars in relation to the position."
https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/employers-required-invite-applicants-under-new-job-match-service-079402.html
Please update your job bank profile along with your EE profile.This may be an opportunity for many of us.
Employers will be Required to Invite Applicants Under new Job Match Service
As of August 28, there will be an additional step for Canadian employers wishing to hire through a new rating system will match workers registered in the Canada Job Bank with advertised positions, and employers will be required to invite candidates who have a certain number of stars in relation to the position."
https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/employers-required-invite-applicants-under-new-job-match-service-079402.html
Please update your job bank profile along with your EE profile.This may be an opportunity for many of us.
I am also waiting for the guy who posted something having to do with visualping detecting some changes in the website. Please let them be real changes today!!!Anyone's lawyer/consultant giving them an update today?
)I'll tell you about that!I am also waiting for the guy who posted something having to do with visualping detecting some changes in the website. Please let them be real changes today!!!
There was a website timeout at (The time is in IST)
2017-07-28 13:49:36 Website Timeout
Maybe, we can expect something today! They were prolly fetching the data.
Hopefully!!!I'll tell you about that!
There was a website timeout at (The time is in IST)
2017-07-28 13:49:36 Website Timeout
Maybe, we can expect something today! They were prolly fetching the data.
my car seems to have broke down..I'll tell you about that!
There was a website timeout at (The time is in IST)
2017-07-28 13:49:36 Website Timeout
Maybe, we can expect something today! They were prolly fetching the data.
maybe, we can.......
just kidding...I like it, that everybody is so pumped up...