Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

[tj4canada]

Oh so you are a native speaker (Y) . I read a book written by a foreign author which explained a proper structure to write an impressive letter and essay. It did help me a lot, but may be it wasn't enough. Secondly, i always put my letter in 150-160 words & essay in 250-260 words window.

Also i read some sample 9-BAND essays from internet.

I don't know where i am lacking... :O

I only used the study guide from their website. I did timed practice. And I remember drawing the conclusion that getting to the second page really matters.

 

[gill367]

Looking at the trends for last year..
CRS cutoff increased after April last draw and then never came back to that level again for the rest of the year..
and this year also now PNP and new rules from june will push it up ..
only hope is remaining two draws of May..
Lets hope for the best..
All the best guys..

 

[vimmy91]

Maybe I am wrong but this is my Initial Analysis (Rounded Figures) for the 4th May Draw (3,796 ITA's).

ACTUAL FC FC
CRS Scores 28/4/2017 4/5/2017 After ITA

601-1200 113 200 -

451-600 1,023 1,950 -


401-450 7,178 7,761 6,115


441-450 318 450 -

431-440 462 650 -

421-430 453 635 89

411-420 2,003 2,041 2,041

401-400 3,942 3,985 3,985


Notes:

1) PNP point is 600, therefore, it is not possible that sharp increase in 451-600 is due to Acceptance of Nominations.

2) This change, in my opinion, is due to Young Canadian Students entering the pool with Bachelor Degree or above after the successful government compaign in the last few months. The average estimated scores for Canadian students is estimated to be 470, so this could be well justified with the only range of 451-600 increasing while others are quiet consistent.

3) The decline in 401-450 range is at average 1,700 per draw, so it will take about 4 Rounds to clear things above 400.

4) The spring graduation will start from the end of May and Mid-June, so more graduates are expected to apply from June onwards leading to high numbers in above 450 scores.

5) If the 450+ range doesn't repeat the same trend and draw is conducted in short intervals then there is no reason not to clear 411-420 range and move on.

6) If in the next draw we have 1,200 applicants added above 421 range and ITA's are 3,600 or more then the Score can go down to 411-413.

7) If the trend continues in 451 and above then it is better to go back and find new ways to increase the score.

8 ) Finally, I believe scores will come down as CIC intention seems to clear 400+ applicants by the end of June.

I hope this will help

Your analysis makes a lot of sense. My CRS is 411, i just hope the cut-off comes down again. ???

 

[nanning]

Maybe I am wrong but this is my Initial Analysis (Rounded Figures) for the 4th May Draw (3,796 ITA's).

ACTUAL FC FC
CRS Scores 28/4/2017 4/5/2017 After ITA

601-1200 113 200 -

451-600 1,023 1,950 -


401-450 7,178 7,761 6,115


441-450 318 450 -

431-440 462 650 -

421-430 453 635 89

411-420 2,003 2,041 2,041

401-400 3,942 3,985 3,985


Notes:

1) PNP point is 600, therefore, it is not possible that sharp increase in 451-600 is due to Acceptance of Nominations.

2) This change, in my opinion, is due to Young Canadian Students entering the pool with Bachelor Degree or above after the successful government compaign in the last few months. The average estimated scores for Canadian students is estimated to be 470, so this could be well justified with the only range of 451-600 increasing while others are quiet consistent.

3) The decline in 401-450 range is at average 1,700 per draw, so it will take about 4 Rounds to clear things above 400.

4) The spring graduation will start from the end of May and Mid-June, so more graduates are expected to apply from June onwards leading to high numbers in above 450 scores.

5) If the 450+ range doesn't repeat the same trend and draw is conducted in short intervals then there is no reason not to clear 411-420 range and move on.

6) If in the next draw we have 1,200 applicants added above 421 range and ITA's are 3,600 or more then the Score can go down to 411-413.

7) If the trend continues in 451 and above then it is better to go back and find new ways to increase the score.

8 ) Finally, I believe scores will come down as CIC intention seems to clear 400+ applicants by the end of June.

I hope this will help

Interesting. But how do you know the distribution on May 4 ??

 

[tj4canada]

Maybe I am wrong but this is my Initial Analysis (Rounded Figures) for the 4th May Draw (3,796 ITA's).

ACTUAL FC FC
CRS Scores 28/4/2017 4/5/2017 After ITA

601-1200 113 200 -

451-600 1,023 1,950 -


401-450 7,178 7,761 6,115


441-450 318 450 -

431-440 462 650 -

421-430 453 635 89

411-420 2,003 2,041 2,041

401-400 3,942 3,985 3,985


Notes:

1) PNP point is 600, therefore, it is not possible that sharp increase in 451-600 is due to Acceptance of Nominations.

2) This change, in my opinion, is due to Young Canadian Students entering the pool with Bachelor Degree or above after the successful government compaign in the last few months. The average estimated scores for Canadian students is estimated to be 470, so this could be well justified with the only range of 451-600 increasing while others are quiet consistent.

3) The decline in 401-450 range is at average 1,700 per draw, so it will take about 4 Rounds to clear things above 400.

4) The spring graduation will start from the end of May and Mid-June, so more graduates are expected to apply from June onwards leading to high numbers in above 450 scores.

5) If the 450+ range doesn't repeat the same trend and draw is conducted in short intervals then there is no reason not to clear 411-420 range and move on.

6) If in the next draw we have 1,200 applicants added above 421 range and ITA's are 3,600 or more then the Score can go down to 411-413.

7) If the trend continues in 451 and above then it is better to go back and find new ways to increase the score.

8 ) Finally, I believe scores will come down as CIC intention seems to clear 400+ applicants by the end of June.

I hope this will help

It seems to me that it all depends on the rate of pool entrants with scores above 420. From 4/19 to 4/28 it appears to be 263 per day.

 

[BillHyatt]

Interesting. But how do you know the distribution on May 4 ??

The 4/5/2017 figures are forecasted using the estimated increase per day per category.

 

[Dom2012]

If only people will stop rejecting their ITAs so that those who are ready to apply can get ITA soon

 

[Alberta Semi Skilled]

Then apply without your spouse. You can always sponsor her later which doesnt take much time. Keep your score 452. Its that simple.

Lucky thing is we have already applied PR after AINP nomination in March 2017, EE would just be more faster for us, if we could get! Hopefully soon

 

[binsin]

I am at 392 and on 1st of June will lose 5 points!!

Don' know whether the magic point will ever come down to 387 any time soon.

Still positive and following the thread

 

[_Harry_]

Can anybody answer below queries:

1. How many EE profiles (in pool not PNP) has CIC planned to intake this year - 2017?
2. How many EE profiles have been sent ITA by CIC till now?
3. How many more draws (more months) will this year intake will continue?
4. What is the average rejection rate per draw?
5. And finally, if ITA are rejected, are more draws done to compensate the rejection or the count is rolled over to the next year ITA count?

Thanks in advance.

 

[binsin]

I have 100% confidence it will come down till 350 by September 2017 and my score is 370

Hope its true!! ;D

 

[_Harry_]

Oh so you are a native speaker (Y) . I read a book written by a foreign author which explained a proper structure to write an impressive letter and essay. It did help me a lot, but may be it wasn't enough. Secondly, i always put my letter in 150-160 words & essay in 250-260 words window.

Also i read some sample 9-BAND essays from internet.

I don't know where i am lacking... :O

Its not about you are native or not. I have seen many native speakers did v bad in IELTS. Its how you express yourself in the exam.
Every module is created in a way that nobody, I repeat, nobody can cheat his/her way into it.
If you know what you are doing, only then you can score.

Plus, IELTS is very clear on every module and the band they give in it. In the official IELTS website, they have clearly mentioned what you need to do in each module to get good bands.
Every paper is marked on certain charateristics and it happens that we focus on one or two and miss few on the way resulting low score.

I have taken IELTS twice. Never took any training since using English in office for past 10+ year. Here is my experience:

First: I did well in L R & W..not so well in S because it was very tough.
Surprisingly, I got 7 in S and 8.5 in R. I was very sure about W that I will get 8+ but only got 6.5!
Like many I rely on quantity rather quality. I wrote 2 pages letter and 5-6 pages essay, but those examiners at IELTS are not kids.
They know how to rate your paper. Since I got 6.5 in W so it wasn't CLB9 for me. I had to retake it.

Second: I took it very seriously and was very attentive during L. I though I scored 38 and guessed 2. Mind you, it was very tough and questions were very tricky too. However I scored 9 in L.
S went very well..as per my expectations. I was very talkative but to the point. Was cheerful and the examiner was happy with me. I though I easily made 8..perhaps 8.5..turns out I only got 7.5! Surprised here again.
R was way tough than last time. I was in for a big surprise. Not even one section was easy. All full with trick questions. I scored 8.5 last time, I managed only 7.5 second time.
W was big gamble again. The essay and letter all seemed same like last time but I rely on quality rather quantity this time. Used some good vocab, stood on the topic and didn't deviate at all..was precise and focused. I again though I easily scored 8 but was surprised to get only 7.
This time I managed CLB9 with overall score of 8.

Bottom line, IELTS is very tough if you want to score good. Anyone can score 5-6-7. But when you want to differentiate yourself from the rest..7.5-8.5 needs a lot of effort and focus.
It also depends on the test. Sometimes some modules are walk in the park. Sometimes same modules can become nightmares. Prepare for both.

My Final advice:
1. Read the details from the website and see what all they need at each band and see if you are giving them everything to score big.
2. Do practice. Not just L and W..but S and R too. You never know what you might face.
3. Don't take any module lightly. Even if you have scored big in some module last time, it doesn't mean it will be same this time.

All the best!

 

[ArjonDJ]

The 4/5/2017 figures are forecasted using the estimated increase per day per category.

You made a good point with your analysis, thus I think for our next forecasts we should indeed consider seasonal factors, as it is the case of the newly graduated.

 

[KingKurly]

Goodbye Ray of Hope 61st Draw and Hello Ray of Hope 62nd Draw. Seems like i am not gonna get away without taking IELTS exam again and achieve CLB 9 although 15 points are on its way on June 6, still not going to be enough. Ah well.

 

[qgon123]

Goodbye Ray of Hope 61st Draw and Hello Ray of Hope 62nd Draw. Seems like i am not gonna get away without taking IELTS exam again and achieve CLB 9 although 15 points are on its way on June 6, still not going to be enough. Ah well.

Did you receive your remarking result?