RAY of HOPE 53rd Draw (Predictions)

[vabs200]

This draw has really proved to be the ray of hope for candidates sitting below the 450 mark. It was always believed that the first couple of draws of the year would tell us a lot about future trends and that is exactly what has happened. So, here is my prediction for the next few draws.

The latest draw has invited 3334 candidates at and above CRS 459. The last draw was for candidates at and above 468. So we can assume that there were around 370 candidates at each point between 459 and 467. I know that there would have been provincial nominations as well and in that case the score would have been higher than 467 but we can safely assume that on an average the future draws will also have the same number of candidates with provincial nominations.

However, we should also keep in mind that this particular draw happened after just one week. So, assuming that there is another draw on January 18th with 3500 ITAs, the CRS could be 450. However, if the draw takes place on January 25th then the CRS could be around 451-452. The January 11th draw was the first time that CRS went below the 468 mark since April 20 and thus it is fair to assume that the number of candidates sitting on each point below 468 would on average be the same.

Now, why I believe that the number of invitations would remain high for at least a few more draws is that going by some of recent CIC statements they realise that a big drawback of the EE system has been that the CRS hasn't gone below the 450 mark and candidates with high human capital have been unable to receive ITA. Thus, the high number of invitations that we are witnessing is because CIC wants to lower the CRS to a point which they think belongs to candidates with high human capital. Now, that point could be 400, 420 or even 440 (nobody can tell that but CIC). Of course the ITAs cannot remain this high forever since that would exceed the ITA target set by CIC for 2017.

Thus, we can safely conclude that candidates with CRS 425 and above can expect to receive direct ITA very soon.

 

[_Aspirant]

This draw has really proved to be the ray of hope for candidates sitting below the 450 mark. It was always believed that the first couple of draws of the year would tell us a lot about future trends and that is exactly what has happened. So, here is my prediction for the next few draws.

The latest draw has invited 3334 candidates at and above CRS 459. The last draw was for candidates at and above 468. So we can assume that there were around 370 candidates at each point between 459 and 467. I know that there would have been provincial nominations as well and in that case the score would have been higher than 467 but we can safely assume that on an average the future draws will also have the same number of candidates with provincial nominations.

However, we should also keep in mind that this particular draw happened after just one week. So, assuming that there is another draw on January 18th with 3500 ITAs, the CRS could be 450. However, if the draw takes place on January 25th then the CRS could be around 451-452. The January 11th draw was the first time that CRS went below the 468 mark since April 20 and thus it is fair to assume that the number of candidates sitting on each point below 468 would on average be the same.

Now, why I believe that the number of invitations would remain high for at least a few more draws is that going by some of recent CIC statements they realise that a big drawback of the EE system has been that the CRS hasn't gone below the 450 mark and candidates with high human capital have been unable to receive ITA. Thus, the high number of invitations that we are witnessing is because CIC wants to lower the CRS to a point which they think belongs to candidates with high human capital. Now, that point could be 400, 420 or even 440 (nobody can tell that but CIC). Of course the ITAs cannot remain this high forever since that would exceed the ITA target set by CIC for 2017.

Thus, we can safely conclude that candidates with CRS 425 and above can expect to receive direct ITA very soon.

I second that. I foresee the bright future of candidates below 450.

 

[Escobar Gaviria]

This draw has really proved to be the ray of hope for candidates sitting below the 450 mark. It was always believed that the first couple of draws of the year would tell us a lot about future trends and that is exactly what has happened. So, here is my prediction for the next few draws.

The latest draw has invited 3334 candidates at and above CRS 459. The last draw was for candidates at and above 468. So we can assume that there were around 370 candidates at each point between 459 and 467. I know that there would have been provincial nominations as well and in that case the score would have been higher than 467 but we can safely assume that on an average the future draws will also have the same number of candidates with provincial nominations.

However, we should also keep in mind that this particular draw happened after just one week. So, assuming that there is another draw on January 18th with 3500 ITAs, the CRS could be 450. However, if the draw takes place on January 25th then the CRS could be around 451-452. The January 11th draw was the first time that CRS went below the 468 mark since April 20 and thus it is fair to assume that the number of candidates sitting on each point below 468 would on average be the same.

Now, why I believe that the number of invitations would remain high for at least a few more draws is that going by some of recent CIC statements they realise that a big drawback of the EE system has been that the CRS hasn't gone below the 450 mark and candidates with high human capital have been unable to receive ITA. Thus, the high number of invitations that we are witnessing is because CIC wants to lower the CRS to a point which they think belongs to candidates with high human capital. Now, that point could be 400, 420 or even 440 (nobody can tell that but CIC). Of course the ITAs cannot remain this high forever since that would exceed the ITA target set by CIC for 2017.

Thus, we can safely conclude that candidates with CRS 425 and above can expect to receive direct ITA very soon.

Agreed.

 

[jackdawn]

As per cicnew
The government is targeting up to 320,000 new permanent residents to land in Canada in 2017, a record target in modern Canadian history. Moreover, the government of Canada plans to welcome around 51,000 new immigrants through the Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) in 2017.

so my guess the score will drop to 410 in the next draw.

people wud love to see that score but it looks too ambitious. If im correct quota for 2017 through skilled is 71700, they have to draw close to 6000 people per month. So the draws wud remain large between 2.5-3k and it is possible that scores wud come down drastically.

Who knows they may go below 400 ;D

 

[Pawshi]

Totally agree with your views on number of candidates on each point. Scores should continue to fall at-least till H1 2017. H2 2017 draws will be based on the targets of 2018.

I wrote this on other thread.

he scores have to go down below 450. But how much, no one knows. Where would it stop, no one knows. The lowest score was 450. It was almost 15 months back in Sept/Oct 2015. The difference between those time and today are following -

1. Increased quota of economic immigrant by 22% in 2017 (From 58400 in 2016 to 71700 in 2017) 2000 of Atlantic figures are not included. Refer any site for the immigration targets to validate. (Refer CIC site http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)
2. Paper based applications prior to 2015 is coming to an end. There will not much length in the queue who applied before the start of the express entry in 2015. So, it is stated categorically in the 2017 that "as a majority of admissions in 2017 are expected to come from Express Entry."
3. LMIA fatness has been removed. In everydraw there was a good % of LMIA based candidates who had poor human capital, but with 600 LMIA points, they were ahead of all of us. That fatness has been removed.
4. Starting March 2017, there would be less number of the PNP applicants in the draw because of following reason -
4a) As OINP would finish the PNP decision of all the cases received before March 2016. There would not be the big numbers with new PNP. When they restart again with Human Capital Priorities, it will take atleast 6 months for the decision.
4b) Nova Scotia Express Entry is closed for quite sometime
4c) and so many others.
5. The point is that PNP applicants in express entry would not eat much of the space in each draw. Also, PNP nominated applicants does not eat the economic immigrant quote. They do have their own PNP quota.

With all the five points above, it appears to me that this trend towards lower CRS with same volume of ITA would continue for this year. Yes, there may be a possibility of any unexpected and last minute surprises.

But, last few draws have really given a decent hope to stay alive in the boat. I am in the queue with 434.

Thank you.

 

[johnsyk]

people wud love to see that score but it looks too ambitious. If im correct quota for 2017 through skilled is 71700, they have to draw close to 6000 people per month. So the draws wud remain large between 2.5-3k and it is possible that scores wud come down drastically.

Who knows they may go below 400 ;D

71,700 is not number of ITAs. Its total number of people landing. At an average, each ITA is 2 to 3 people since many dont come alone. They come with families. So I dont think they can maintain such high ITA's all year round.

 

[vabs200]

Totally agree with your views on number of candidates on each point. Scores should continue to fall at-least till H1 2017. H2 2017 draws will be based on the targets of 2018.

I wrote this on other thread.

he scores have to go down below 450. But how much, no one knows. Where would it stop, no one knows. The lowest score was 450. It was almost 15 months back in Sept/Oct 2015. The difference between those time and today are following -

1. Increased quota of economic immigrant by 22% in 2017 (From 58400 in 2016 to 71700 in 2017) 2000 of Atlantic figures are not included. Refer any site for the immigration targets to validate. (Refer CIC site http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)
2. Paper based applications prior to 2015 is coming to an end. There will not much length in the queue who applied before the start of the express entry in 2015. So, it is stated categorically in the 2017 that "as a majority of admissions in 2017 are expected to come from Express Entry."
3. LMIA fatness has been removed. In everydraw there was a good % of LMIA based candidates who had poor human capital, but with 600 LMIA points, they were ahead of all of us. That fatness has been removed.
4. Starting March 2017, there would be less number of the PNP applicants in the draw because of following reason -
4a) As OINP would finish the PNP decision of all the cases received before March 2016. There would not be the big numbers with new PNP. When they restart again with Human Capital Priorities, it will take atleast 6 months for the decision.
4b) Nova Scotia Express Entry is closed for quite sometime
4c) and so many others.
5. The point is that PNP applicants in express entry would not eat much of the space in each draw. Also, PNP nominated applicants does not eat the economic immigrant quote. They do have their own PNP quota.

With all the five points above, it appears to me that this trend towards lower CRS with same volume of ITA would continue for this year. Yes, there may be a possibility of any unexpected and last minute surprises.

But, last few draws have really given a decent hope to stay alive in the boat. I am in the queue with 434.

Thank you.

Cheers!!

 

[johnsyk]

Totally agree with your views on number of candidates on each point. Scores should continue to fall at-least till H1 2017. H2 2017 draws will be based on the targets of 2018.

I wrote this on other thread.

he scores have to go down below 450. But how much, no one knows. Where would it stop, no one knows. The lowest score was 450. It was almost 15 months back in Sept/Oct 2015. The difference between those time and today are following -

1. Increased quota of economic immigrant by 22% in 2017 (From 58400 in 2016 to 71700 in 2017) 2000 of Atlantic figures are not included. Refer any site for the immigration targets to validate. (Refer CIC site http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)
2. Paper based applications prior to 2015 is coming to an end. There will not much length in the queue who applied before the start of the express entry in 2015. So, it is stated categorically in the 2017 that "as a majority of admissions in 2017 are expected to come from Express Entry."
3. LMIA fatness has been removed. In everydraw there was a good % of LMIA based candidates who had poor human capital, but with 600 LMIA points, they were ahead of all of us. That fatness has been removed.
4. Starting March 2017, there would be less number of the PNP applicants in the draw because of following reason -
4a) As OINP would finish the PNP decision of all the cases received before March 2016. There would not be the big numbers with new PNP. When they restart again with Human Capital Priorities, it will take atleast 6 months for the decision.
4b) Nova Scotia Express Entry is closed for quite sometime
4c) and so many others.
5. The point is that PNP applicants in express entry would not eat much of the space in each draw. Also, PNP nominated applicants does not eat the economic immigrant quote. They do have their own PNP quota.

With all the five points above, it appears to me that this trend towards lower CRS with same volume of ITA would continue for this year. Yes, there may be a possibility of any unexpected and last minute surprises.

But, last few draws have really given a decent hope to stay alive in the boat. I am in the queue with 434.

Thank you.

Sounds good. Lets hope for the best!

 

[vabs200]

71,700 is not number of ITAs. Its total number of people landing. At an average, each ITA is 2 to 3 people since many dont come alone. They come with families. So I dont think they can maintain such high ITA's all year round.

Totally agree. Let us assume that average number of PRs with each ITA is 2. In that case there would be around 36000 ITAs in 2017. Assuming 25 draws in the year, it comes out to around 1500 ITAs per draw, so if we are witnessing 3000+ ITAs during the starting few months then the number of invitations are bound to go down after a few months.

To conclude, I think it would be the same trend like last year with respect to number of ITAs. However, by the time the number of ITAs go down, I hope most of the candidates above 400 would have been cleared.

 

[johnsyk]

Totally agree. Let us assume that average number of PRs with each ITA is 2. In that case there would be around 36000 ITAs in 2017. Assuming 25 draws in the year, it comes out to around 1500 ITAs per draw, so if we are witnessing 3000+ ITAs during the starting few months then the number of invitations are bound to go down after a few months.

The current trend is good now for people who are getting ITAs. However for people below 450, at this rate, my worry is that in a few months, they will reduce it like they did last year! In the middle of 2016, they were giving away a meagre 750 ITAs. Imagine 750 ITAs and PNP nominations by the second half of the year and CRS will sky rocket up again!

 

[johnsyk]

Totally agree. Let us assume that average number of PRs with each ITA is 2. In that case there would be around 36000 ITAs in 2017. Assuming 25 draws in the year, it comes out to around 1500 ITAs per draw, so if we are witnessing 3000+ ITAs during the starting few months then the number of invitations are bound to go down after a few months.

To conclude, I think it would be the same trend like last year with respect to number of ITAs. However, by the time the number of ITAs go down, I hope most of the candidates above 400 would have been cleared.

As rightly pointed out by you, the issue is we dont know when CIC will decide that it has bottomed out enough and then reduce ITA's to bump scores up again. It could be 440, 420 or 400. We dont know. At some point, they will cut the ITAs since if they dont, they will go over-quota!

 

[johnsyk]

My biggest fear is that they are pumping out ITAs till they hit 450 and then hold back ITAs. Same thing happened last year and 2015. It fell to 450 and then it was rising after that. That way ONIP remains competitive!

 

[johnsyk]

Is it only me or anyone else thinks that Ray of Hope has gone silent. Looks like everyone has got their ITAs and moved on! LOL

 

[RK117]

No, I dont think so. Somewhere on this very forum I read the each ITA eats 1.2 space of the quota. Please keep in your consideration that maximum numbers are singles, as they are below 30.

So, in each draw consider 5% for PNP quota. Hence the calculation looks like this -

Total ITA numbers for each month = 5000 (2500 in each draw)
Used Economic immigrant quota = 5000*1.2 = 6000
Multiply by 12 months = 6000*12 = 72000

In my opinion, we will continue to see 2500+ draw every second week and at this rate it should go down below 420 by H1 2017.

 

[johnsyk]

No, I dont think so. Somewhere on this very forum I read the each ITA eats 1.2 space of the quota. Please keep in your consideration that maximum numbers are singles, as they are below 30.

So, in each draw consider 5% for PNP quota. Hence the calculation looks like this -

Total ITA numbers for each month = 5000 (2500 in each draw)
Used Economic immigrant quota = 5000*1.2 = 6000
Multiply by 12 months = 6000*12 = 72000

In my opinion, we will continue to see 2500+ draw every second week and at this rate it should go down below 420 by H1 2017.

Cheers!