RAY of HOPE 53rd Draw (Predictions)

[omar_ahmed21]

I am very hopeful it will go down further because graduation/school completion is by May (well atleast for me, post grad) so maybe in the coming weeks, it will just depend on people completing a minimum of 1 year Canadian skilled job experience and provincial nominations?

True :

 

[SCC]

This was the picture at the end of 2015 -

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

Add to that additional 15 points on average for Canadian education and 50 points for ICT folks so that skews it a bit.

Now, if this number doubled as many more people entered the pool (say 26000 people sitting between 400-449)... AND they continue to pull 3000 every 2 weeks (if they do that big of a draw every time), by the end of June, you can be looking at closer to 400..

These are all assumptions ofcourse

 

[omar_ahmed21]

This was the picture at the end of 2015 -

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

Add to that additional 15 points on average for Canadian education and 50 points for ICT folks so that skews it a bit.

Now, if this number doubled as many more people entered the pool (say 26000 people sitting between 400-449)... AND they continue to pull 3000 every 2 weeks (if they do that big of a draw every time), by the end of June, you can be looking at closer to 400..

These are all assumptions ofcourse

Off topic !! As I can see that you have got the OINP. I have 30 days left for my PGWP & I was hoping if OINP reopen and I receive the additional 600 points. Do you think this is can be possible !?

Thanks,

 

[SCC]

Off topic !! As I can see that you have got the OINP. I have 30 days left for my PGWP & I was hoping if OINP reopen and I receive the additional 600 points. Do you think this is can be possible !?

Thanks,

It took me almost a year to get the OINP nomination after I applied .. So, even if it opens, I really don't believe they will nominate you that fast.. But you might wanna ask an expert as I am usually wrong

 

[omar_ahmed21]

It took me almost a year to get the OINP nomination after I applied .. So, even if it opens, I really don't believe they will nominate you that fast.. But you might wanna ask an expert as I am usually wrong

Aren't they take all with CELPIP 7's, 1 years of Ontario work experience & bachelor degree. minimum 400 CRS. ? I don't mind to wait for processing time..

 

[Mthornt]

I'm guessing 2700 ITAs, cutoff at 452, on Jan. 25th.

 

[vaibhav007us]

In my view, how much the scores would drop depend on a lot of factors:

1. If they drop below 450 - OINP may no longer be very lucrative - so this would be more of a government decision whether to let them drop or not by decreasing the number of ITA's

2. Additional points - With every draw, people with additional points would keep coming up i.e. increase in work ex, qualification. However, they would be some who would have their cores drop also due to age. But former would be more than latter

3. PNP - the number of PNP's would be big determinative factor

4. Spouse and children - The number of ITA's also include spouse and children.

So, it cannot be assumed that the scores would keep dropping at every draw. But, yes if the current trend continues, we may see the earlier barrier of 450 breaking in near future. Amen.

 

[sunchaser]

3000 nominations with crs 449

 

[jackdawn]

Why did the CRS came down and went up last time? Because of too many LMIA candidates entering the pool? Will it again go back to 470s like it did last time?

LMIA isnt adding any value to the score now. i feel the draws now are based on Canadian education and core human capital credentials.
Next draw would be under 450 if the no. of ITA's are more than 2.5k

 

[jackdawn]

In my view, how much the scores would drop depend on a lot of factors:

1. If they drop below 450 - OINP may no longer be very lucrative - so this would be more of a government decision whether to let them drop or not by decreasing the number of ITA's

2. Additional points - With every draw, people with additional points would keep coming up i.e. increase in work ex, qualification. However, they would be some who would have their cores drop also due to age. But former would be more than latter

3. PNP - the number of PNP's would be big determinative factor

4. Spouse and children - The number of ITA's also include spouse and children.

So, it cannot be assumed that the scores would keep dropping at every draw. But, yes if the current trend continues, we may see the earlier barrier of 450 breaking in near future. Amen.

.

agree with your first point. In such a scenario ONIP might change the criteria down wards to attract manpower. Draws post november 19 has cleared many canadian educated candidates who got additional points. Even if candidates keep pouring in the score of those candidates wud be between 470-480 and the no. wud be low accommodating the candidates with low score and hence the scores will come down below 450

 

[akkipandey]

I wish you guys are right....Stuck at 448

My prediction 453 with 3000 ITA's

 

[Escobar Gaviria]

My predictions.

53rd draw: Jan 25th -> 2500+ ITA and CRS 253
54th draw: Feb 8th -> 2800+ ITA and CRS 250

 

[vabs200]

My predictions.

53rd draw: Jan 25th -> 2500+ ITA and CRS 253
54th draw: Feb 8th -> 2800+ ITA and CRS 250

I believe you meant 453 and 450 ;D

 

[Pascal.H]

As per cicnew
The government is targeting up to 320,000 new permanent residents to land in Canada in 2017, a record target in modern Canadian history. Moreover, the government of Canada plans to welcome around 51,000 new immigrants through the Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) in 2017.

so my guess the score will drop to 410 in the next draw.

 

[Escobar Gaviria]

I believe you meant 453 and 450 ;D

LOL.

my bad.