Ray of Hope - 47th Draw

[vaibhav007us]

Finally got an ITA, CRS 474, getting ready to fill out all forms and gathering couple remaining documents. Hopefully will submit all docs in the beginning of December. After that i hope it will go smooth.

congrats and all the best

 

[Dedicated]

Guys, do think there is any possibility that the cut-off score at the next draw doesn't drop below 472? /Just wondering.../

 

[Pawshi]

Folks,

Please read this hypothesis - on http://immigration.ca/en/2016/237-canada-immigration-news-articles/2016/november/2944-why-it-could-get-much-easier-to-move-to-canada-in-2017.html

It makes sense to me, but partially. Not sure, how come they are quoting 90000 ITA.

Hypothesis

Consider that for its 2016 levels under the Federal Economic class, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will process the majority of admissions to Canada from applicants who submitted applications prior to the launch of the express entry system. It is expected that for 2017, this component will decline to about 25% of economic admissions to Canada or (18,425 applicants with dependents). This will allow about 55,275 admissions to be sourced from the express entry pool covering federal skilled worker program, federal skilled trades, Canadian experience Class, post graduate students (a new category expected to be created in 2017) and the newly created Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program.

Hypothetically, if in 2017, the government issues 90,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through Express Entry, more than triple the approximately 24,000 invitations issued to-date in 2016, statistics show that only 60 per cent of those candidates will end up moving to Canada, bringing an average of 2.2 dependents along with them. This would translate to about 55,275 of the targeted 73,700, that will derive from candidates (plus dependents) in the express entry pool.

This means that depending on the profiles of future applicants in the express entry pool, CRS scores need to drop below 400, at some point in 2017, for the first time since Express Entry began (the current lowest score is 453).

Invitations with CRS scores above 450 are difficult to achieve without a positive LMIA. With IRCC still needing to achieve a target of 73,700 immigrants (possibly more), and with the number of pre-express entry applications declining in 2017, how will IRCC reach its targeted number of candidates in 2017? The obvious answer is by issuing a much larger number of invitations. This can only occur by lowering the CRS scores of future draws.

New rules expected to be tabled this fall will help many international students who have graduated from Canadian universities to qualify for an ITA without a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), when applying for permanent residence. This is provided they have 12 months of postgraduate work experience in Canada and suitable language ability. This will likely become a separate category with an annual cap of 5,000 applications.

We can also expect further changes to the express entry ranking system, in order to facilitate the admission of certain categories of temporary foreign workers admitted to Canada under the International Mobility Program. These important adjustments designed to satisfy the needs of Canadian employers could remove candidates with very high CRS scores from the express entry pool. This could further result in lower CRS scores than we have seen to date. It is going to become a lot easier to move to Canada through Express Entry at some point in 2017.

 

[vensak]

Folks,

Please read this hypothesis - on immigration.ca/en/2016/237-canada-immigration-news-articles/2016/november/2944-why-it-could-get-much-easier-to-move-to-canada-in-2017.html

It makes sense to me, but partially. Not sure, how come they are quoting 90000 ITA.

Hypothesis

Consider that for its 2016 levels under the Federal Economic class, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will process the majority of admissions to Canada from applicants who submitted applications prior to the launch of the express entry system. It is expected that for 2017, this component will decline to about 25% of economic admissions to Canada or (18,425 applicants with dependents). This will allow about 55,275 admissions to be sourced from the express entry pool covering federal skilled worker program, federal skilled trades, Canadian experience Class, post graduate students (a new category expected to be created in 2017) and the newly created Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program.

Hypothetically, if in 2017, the government issues 90,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through Express Entry, more than triple the approximately 24,000 invitations issued to-date in 2016, statistics show that only 60 per cent of those candidates will end up moving to Canada, bringing an average of 2.2 dependents along with them. This would translate to about 55,275 of the targeted 73,700, that will derive from candidates (plus dependents) in the express entry pool.

This means that depending on the profiles of future applicants in the express entry pool, CRS scores need to drop below 400, at some point in 2017, for the first time since Express Entry began (the current lowest score is 453).

Invitations with CRS scores above 450 are difficult to achieve without a positive LMIA. With IRCC still needing to achieve a target of 73,700 immigrants (possibly more), and with the number of pre-express entry applications declining in 2017, how will IRCC reach its targeted number of candidates in 2017? The obvious answer is by issuing a much larger number of invitations. This can only occur by lowering the CRS scores of future draws.

New rules expected to be tabled this fall will help many international students who have graduated from Canadian universities to qualify for an ITA without a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), when applying for permanent residence. This is provided they have 12 months of postgraduate work experience in Canada and suitable language ability. This will likely become a separate category with an annual cap of 5,000 applications.

We can also expect further changes to the express entry ranking system, in order to facilitate the admission of certain categories of temporary foreign workers admitted to Canada under the International Mobility Program. These important adjustments designed to satisfy the needs of Canadian employers could remove candidates with very high CRS scores from the express entry pool. This could further result in lower CRS scores than we have seen to date. It is going to become a lot easier to move to Canada through Express Entry at some point in 2017.

1. Even if the statistics is telling something, they can still use only free spots at that time and can recycle them only after offer to the other users will expire or they will decline the ITA. And is that 60% you are assuming those that will move there (if they are outland) or those that will stay there more than 5 years
2. We still have new applicants outside EE (for example some of Ontario streams, PEI PNP, half of Saskatchewan PNP, most of business streams, Plus some other specific programms).
3. The only correct part is average size of the immigrating family, so yes that 30K of ITA are rather correct when they aim for the half of the 120K of economics migrants (PNP + the first section, where 1/2 is considered not to use EE).

 

[NilKumar]

Hi All,

Just on a curious note, say the points drop to like 468, does that mean that everyone on and above 468 will get an invite? even if it's say 50 000 people?

Thanks again

 

[Pawshi]

Technically yes. However, they dont have the bandwidth to do a draw for 50000 in one go....so far the largest draw size was last one 2000+ with 472 and plus. This means, anyone in EE with 472 or above are selected.

 

[fatani]

Folks,

Please read this hypothesis - on immigration.ca/en/2016/237-canada-immigration-news-articles/2016/november/2944-why-it-could-get-much-easier-to-move-to-canada-in-2017.html

It makes sense to me, but partially. Not sure, how come they are quoting 90000 ITA.

Hypothesis

Consider that for its 2016 levels under the Federal Economic class, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will process the majority of admissions to Canada from applicants who submitted applications prior to the launch of the express entry system. It is expected that for 2017, this component will decline to about 25% of economic admissions to Canada or (18,425 applicants with dependents). This will allow about 55,275 admissions to be sourced from the express entry pool covering federal skilled worker program, federal skilled trades, Canadian experience Class, post graduate students (a new category expected to be created in 2017) and the newly created Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program.

Hypothetically, if in 2017, the government issues 90,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through Express Entry, more than triple the approximately 24,000 invitations issued to-date in 2016, statistics show that only 60 per cent of those candidates will end up moving to Canada, bringing an average of 2.2 dependents along with them. This would translate to about 55,275 of the targeted 73,700, that will derive from candidates (plus dependents) in the express entry pool.

This means that depending on the profiles of future applicants in the express entry pool, CRS scores need to drop below 400, at some point in 2017, for the first time since Express Entry began (the current lowest score is 453).

Invitations with CRS scores above 450 are difficult to achieve without a positive LMIA. With IRCC still needing to achieve a target of 73,700 immigrants (possibly more), and with the number of pre-express entry applications declining in 2017, how will IRCC reach its targeted number of candidates in 2017? The obvious answer is by issuing a much larger number of invitations. This can only occur by lowering the CRS scores of future draws.

New rules expected to be tabled this fall will help many international students who have graduated from Canadian universities to qualify for an ITA without a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), when applying for permanent residence. This is provided they have 12 months of postgraduate work experience in Canada and suitable language ability. This will likely become a separate category with an annual cap of 5,000 applications.

We can also expect further changes to the express entry ranking system, in order to facilitate the admission of certain categories of temporary foreign workers admitted to Canada under the International Mobility Program. These important adjustments designed to satisfy the needs of Canadian employers could remove candidates with very high CRS scores from the express entry pool. This could further result in lower CRS scores than we have seen to date. It is going to become a lot easier to move to Canada through Express Entry at some point in 2017.

I think they have exaggerated a bit. They are right in some points. That is high number of ITAs which we are already witnessing. I think if the ITAs goes to the point of 2500 and they issued it consistently after every 2 weeks. We can see score fall to 425. Which I think they should do because if 50% coming through EE means 1500 ITAs so now if majority of them will come through EE means atleast 2500 ITAs. They cant stick on 1500. If we saw when they were drawing 1500 ITAs consistently the score go as low as 450. So with 2500 we can definately see the scores go down to 425. And in coming years after 2017 with Pre EE backlog will be fully wiped out. And immigration targets also increasing we can have much larger draws of 3500-4000 then we can see that score will go down to 400. Lots of people here say that how can score go below to 400. Common peeps give me a break! Even to acheive 400 an applicant should have to be atleast under 30 bachelors working for 3 yrs and have to have CLB 8-9 Level of english. Everyone can not have CLB 10 Level of english. Everyone is not able to do masters. Everyone cant be under 30 with tons of experience. And a person with Good know how of english bachelors degree and very good experience also deserves a chance. Because at the time of paper application lots of people even my relative had gone to canada with CLB 7 English and just 2 yr diploma aged in late 40s. We all understand that canada needs the best but they still have to acheive their target is well. I belive that if a person who is bachelors good english in his early 30s also deserves a chance and he will get a chance. Its just because express entry has just been launched 2 yrs ago it will take time to operate on a level on which it meant to be. And thats why scores are so high because it is still not working fully.

 

[NilKumar]

Hi Pawshi,

Thanks, that does make sense but just on another curious note if there is say 50 000 people in EE that meet the 468 point cutoff and they only select 2000+ people does that mean only 2000+ out of the 50 000 would get it right?

Thanks again

 

[Pawshi]

to be honest, I dont have the answer to your question. I also asked the same question when the scores were not falling below 481.....but got many wired reply my friend...It looked like that i have thrown a stone to honeybee bush....

 

[Pawshi]

Totally agree with you Fatani....I am also living in the same hope with 434 ....

 

[fatani]

Hi Pawshi,

Thanks, that does make sense but just on another curious note if there is say 50 000 people in EE that meet the 468 point cutoff and they only select 2000+ people does that mean only 2000+ out of the 50 000 would get it right?

Thanks again

It is not possible. Last year express entry report says only 60,000 candidates were active in a pool as of Jan 1 2016, It cant be that much people on single score. Let suppose the next draw is of 2500 ITAs

(500-1200) 700 applicants are waiting
(472-499) 400 applicants are waiting

So that makes 1100 ITAs. Now with score below 472 there will be lots of them waiting as now its about 7 months that they have not gone below 472 and that too happend in last draw.

Lets suppose
(471) 500 applicants are waiting
(470) 600 applicanta are waiting
(469) 800 applicants are waiting

So now they will think that at max we can draw 2500 in this round so we should draw till 470. That will issue 2200 ITAs with 470 cut off. They will not do that lets take 300 out of 800 from the score of 469. So when the score says 472 is the cut off then every applicant that was on 472 got an ITA. I hope you understood

 

[NilKumar]

Lol, na it's cool. Thanks for the replies.

 

[NilKumar]

Hi fatani,

thanks, yeah that make sense now, i have a better understanding now.

I just said 468 because i'm only 4 points off the cutoff lol.

Thanks again

 

[Chiptole]

I think they have exaggerated a bit. They are right in some points. That is high number of ITAs which we are already witnessing. I think if the ITAs goes to the point of 2500 and they issued it consistently after every 2 weeks. We can see score fall to 425. Which I think they should do because if 50% coming through EE means 1500 ITAs so now if majority of them will come through EE means atleast 2500 ITAs. They cant stick on 1500. If we saw when they were drawing 1500 ITAs consistently the score go as low as 450. So with 2500 we can definately see the scores go down to 425. And in coming years after 2017 with Pre EE backlog will be fully wiped out. And immigration targets also increasing we can have much larger draws of 3500-4000 then we can see that score will go down to 400. Lots of people here say that how can score go below to 400. Common peeps give me a break! Even to acheive 400 an applicant should have to be atleast under 30 bachelors working for 3 yrs and have to have CLB 8-9 Level of english. Everyone can not have CLB 10 Level of english. Everyone is not able to do masters. Everyone cant be under 30 with tons of experience. And a person with Good know how of english bachelors degree and very good experience also deserves a chance. Because at the time of paper application lots of people even my relative had gone to canada with CLB 7 English and just 2 yr diploma aged in late 40s. We all understand that canada needs the best but they still have to acheive their target is well. I belive that if a person who is bachelors good english in his early 30s also deserves a chance and he will get a chance. Its just because express entry has just been launched 2 yrs ago it will take time to operate on a level on which it meant to be. And thats why scores are so high because it is still not working fully.

I disagree on the part that the score may go down to 400. Although the pre ee backlog clears the agents will always be busy handling family and refugee cases. Besides if the score itself drops to 400, what will be the objective of the pnp streams then?say Pnp like oinp... Why someone would opt in for such programs when they can get ita on their own?

 

[fatani]

I disagree on the part that the score may go down to 400. Although the pre ee backlog clears the agents will always be busy handling family and refugee cases. Besides if the score itself drops to 400, what will be the objective of the pnp streams then?say Pnp like oinp... Why someone would opt in for such programs when they can get ita on their own?

OINP can change its criteria anything can happen who knows